英国10年期国债收益率跌至4.535%，为10周来的最低水平，因为投资者押注英格兰银行在经济数据疲软和行长安德鲁·贝利发表温和言论后早些时候降息。数据显示，英国经济在7月份收缩0.1%后，8月份增长了0.1%，与预测相符，并指向第三季度温和增长——在11月26日艰难的预算之前，这对财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯来说是一个小小的缓解。贝利表示，经济运行“低于潜力”，并警告劳动力市场疲软，失业率升至4.8%，为2021年5月以来的最高水平。他的言论增强了人们对2月份降息25个基点以及明年第三季度再次降息的预期。尽管如此，贝利强调了挥之不去的通胀压力和就业疲软之间的紧张关系，这表明政策放松的步伐存在不确定性。与此同时，投资者正在关注里夫斯的预算，预计将包括削减开支和增税，以重建财政状况

The UK 10-year gilt yield fell to 4.535%, its lowest level in ten weeks, as investors bet on earlier Bank of England rate cuts following softer economic data and dovish remarks from Governor Andrew Bailey. Figures showed the UK economy grew 0.1% in August after contracting 0.1% in July, matching forecasts and pointing to modest third-quarter growth — a small relief for Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of the tough November 26 budget. Bailey said the economy is operating “below potential” and warned of a softening labor market, with unemployment rising to 4.8%, the highest since May 2021. His comments strengthened expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut by February and another by the third quarter of next year. Still, Bailey highlighted the tension between lingering inflation pressures and weakening employment, suggesting uncertainty about the pace of policy easing. Meanwhile, investors are watching for Reeves’s budget, expected to include spending cuts and tax hikes to rebuild fiscal c

英国国内生产总值数据达到预期后，富时100指数周四小幅下跌，延续了前一交易日0.3%的跌幅。8月份经济增长0.1%，从7月份的小幅收缩中反弹，这得益于制造业产出的强劲，而服务业持平，建筑业疲软。Whitbread是该指数的最大拖累，在Premier Inn所有者削减了对其德国业务的指导后暴跌近8%，理由是需求低于预期，“高影响事件”减少，促进了旅行。该公司目前预计，来自德国的调整后税前利润将从500万英镑降至500万英镑至1000万英镑，但表示英国的整体交易仍然稳健，预订量强劲。从好的方面来看，禾大在重申其全年前景后上涨了2%以上，尽管这家化学品制造商警告称，到年底，市场将持续疲软，订单可见度低。

The FTSE 100 edged slightly lower on Thursday, extending a 0.3% decline from the previous session, after UK GDP data met expectations. The economy grew 0.1% in August, rebounding from July’s small contraction, helped by stronger manufacturing output, while services were flat and construction weakened. Whitbread was the biggest drag on the index, plunging nearly 8% after the Premier Inn owner trimmed guidance for its German operations, citing weaker-than-expected demand and fewer “high-impact events” boosting travel. The firm now expects up to £5 million in adjusted pre-tax profit from Germany, down from £5–10 million, but said overall trading in the UK remains solid with strong bookings. On the upside, Croda gained over 2% after reaffirming its full-year outlook, though the chemicals maker warned of continued market softness and low order visibility through year-end.

截至2025年8月的三个月里，英国实际国内生产总值比截至5月份的三个月中增长了0.3%，略高于截至7月份的三个中的0.2%，符合市场预期。服务业产出增长0.4%，与前三个月持平，主要受人类健康和社会工作活动（增长1.4%）、人类健康活动（增长1.7%）、行政和支持服务活动（增长14%）、租赁和租赁活动（增长8.0%）以及建筑和工程活动（增长0.6%）的推动；技术测试和分析（增长3.9%）。由于电力、天然气、蒸汽和空调供应减少2.6%，产量下降0.3%，降幅小于截至7月的三个月记录的1.4%。建筑业产出增长0.3%，比上一时期0.5%的增长更温和。

UK real GDP grew 0.3% in the three months to August 2025 compared with the three months to May, slightly up from 0.2% growth in the three months to July, in line with market expectations. Services output expanded 0.4%, unchanged from the previous three-month period, driven by human health and social work activities (up 1.4%), because of growth in human health activities (up 1.7%), administrative and support service activities (up 1.4%), caused by rental and leasing activities (up 8.0%), and professional, scientific and technical activities (up 0.6%), because of architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis (up 3.9%). Production fell 0.3%, a smaller decline than the 1.4% drop recorded in the three months to July, due to a 2.6% decrease in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply. Construction output rose 0.3%, a more modest gain than the 0.5% growth seen in the prior period.

在英国GDP数据与预测相符后，英镑仍高于1.34美元，在政府11月26日的预算之前为财政部长雷切尔·里夫斯提供了一些缓解。英国8月份经济增长0.1%，从7月份0.1%的收缩中反弹，制造业领涨，而服务业连续第二个月持平，建筑业下降。然而，1.3%的年增长率不足以抵消增税的需求。里夫斯最近表示，她正在考虑增税和削减开支，在借贷成本上升、福利削减取消和增长预测疲软的情况下，政府可能需要筹集约300亿英镑。在货币政策方面，交易员们加大了对英格兰银行明年降息的押注，尽管国际货币基金组织警告称，到2026年，通货膨胀率预计仍将是七国集团中最高的，并建议英国央行谨慎行事。

The British pound remained above $1.34 after UK GDP data came in line with forecasts, providing some relief to Finance Minister Rachel Reeves ahead of the government’s November 26 budget. The UK economy grew 0.1% in August, rebounding from a 0.1% contraction in July, led by manufacturing, while services were flat for a second month and construction fell. However, an annual expansion of 1.3% is insufficient to offset the need for tax increases. Reeves recently signaled she is considering tax hikes and spending cuts, with the government likely needing to raise around £30 billion amid rising borrowing costs, scrapped welfare cuts, and weaker growth forecasts. On the monetary policy front, traders have increased bets on Bank of England rate cuts next year, even as the IMF cautioned that inflation is expected to remain the highest in the G7 through 2026, advising the BoE to proceed carefully.