FOMC会议预览：美联储会为7月降息敞开大门吗？。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的温和意外——也许是暗示7月降息的大门仍然敞开，或者9月降息的强烈倾向（目前“仅”60%的价格）——可能会导致欧元/美元的看涨突破

FOMC Meeting Preview: Will the Fed Leave the Door Open for a July Cut?.A dovish surprise from the FOMC – perhaps a hint that the door remains open to a July rate cut or a strong lean toward cutting in September (currently “only” 60% priced in) – could lead to a bullish breakout in EUR/USD

美国企业库存在上个月增长0.1%后，于2025年4月环比持平，符合市场共识。零售商持有的股票在3月份下跌0.3%后，4月份保持不变，而制造商持有的股票则在一个月前类似上涨后下跌0.1%。与此同时，商业批发商的库存在上个月增长0.3%后，增长了0.2%。按年度计算，企业库存增长了2.2%。

US business inventories were flat month-over-month in April 2025, after a 0.1% increase in the prior month, in line with the market consensus. Stocks held by retailers remained unchanged in April after falling 0.3% in March, while those held by manufacturers declined 0.1%, following a similar rise a month earlier. Meanwhile, inventories at merchant wholesalers rose by 0.2%, after a 0.3% increase in the previous month. On an annual basis, business inventories rose by 2.2%.

美国NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数在2025年6月下跌2点，至32点，为2022年12月以来的最低水平，与市场预期的反弹至36点形成鲜明对比。这一数字与长期的高利率和悲观的消费者需求是一致的，因为关税和不确定的经济状况提高了抵押贷款成本。目前的销售状况下降了2个百分点，至35，未来六个月的销售预期下降了2点，至40。与此同时，潜在买家的流量也下降了2个百分点，至21。

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index in the US fell two points to 32 in June of 2025, the lowest since December 2022, and contrasting with market expectations that it would rebound to 36. The figure was consistent with the prolonged period of high interest rates and pessimistic consumer demand as tariffs and uncertain economic conditions lifted mortgage costs. The current sales conditions fell two points to 35, and sales expectations for the next six months fell two points to 40. Consistently, traffic of prospective buyers also dropped two points to 21.

4月份美国企业库存符合预期（0%）。4月份美国企业库存符合预期（0%）

United States Business Inventories in line with expectations (0%) in April.United States Business Inventories in line with expectations (0%) in April