美国ISM制造业进一步收缩，就业疲软加剧。美国7月ISM制造业采购经理人指数从49.0进一步降至48.0，低于49.6的预期。这标志着工厂活动连续第五个月收缩。

US ISM manufacturing contracts further, employment weakness deepens.US ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped further to 48.0 in July, down from 49.0 and missing expectations of 49.6. This marks the fifth straight month of contraction in factory activity.

密歇根大学编制的美国未来一年通胀预期在2025年6月降至4.5%的五个月低点，略高于初步估计的4.4%，但远低于5月份的6.6%，这是自1981年11月以来的最高水平。与此同时，6月份五年期展望连续第三个月降至3.4%，为1月份以来的最低水平，低于早先估计的3.6%。

The year-ahead inflation expectations in the United States, as compiled by the University of Michigan, dropped to a five-month low of 4.5% in June 2025, slightly above the preliminary 4.4% estimate but well below May’s 6.6% reading—the highest since November 1981. In the meantime, the five-year outlook fell for a third straight month to 3.4% in June, the lowest since January, below the earlier estimate of 3.6%.

2025年6月，美国建筑支出比上月下降0.4%，经季节性调整后的年化率为2.136万亿美元，延续了上周修正后的0.4%的降幅，与市场对不变的预期形成鲜明对比。这一数字标志着建筑支出连续第八个月下降，这与限制性利率的背景相一致，限制了对新房地产和信贷活动的需求，以启动新项目。住宅建筑下降0.7%，至9525亿美元，而非住宅建筑下降0.1%，至1.247万亿美元。

Construction spending in the United States fell by 0.4% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of $2.136 trillion in June of 2025, extending the revised 0.4% drop from the previous week and contrasting sharply with market expectations of no change. The figure marked the eighth consecutive month of lower construction spending, aligned with the backdrop of restrictive rates, which limit the demand for new real estate and credit activity to start new projects. Residential construction plunged by 0.7% to a rate of $952.5 billion, while non-residential construction edged 0.1% lower to a rate of $1.247 trillion.

ISM制造业采购经理人指数从6月的49降至2025年7月的48，低于预期的49.5。该数据标志着制造业连续第五个月出现收缩，为去年10月以来的最低水平。最大的负面贡献来自供应商交付量（45.7比46.7）和就业率（43.4比45.0）的下降。ISM制造业商业调查委员会主席Susan Spence表示：“就业指数进一步下跌至收缩状态，因为小组成员表示，与招聘相比，管理员工人数仍然是公司的常态。产出中的混合指标表明，即使产量增加，公司在招聘方面仍然保持谨慎。”从积极的一面来看，生产加速（51.4对50.3），而新订单的下降（47.1对46.4）和积压订单（46.8对44.3）有所缓和。价格压力也有所缓解，价格指数从69.7降至64.8。

The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48 in July 2025 from 49 in June, missing expectations for an increase to 49.5. The reading marked the fifth consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector and was the weakest since October of last year. The largest negative contributions came from declines in supplier deliveries (45.7 vs. 46.7) and employment (43.4 vs. 45.0). "The Employment Index dropped further into contraction as panelists indicated that managing head count is still the norm at their companies, as opposed to hiring. The mixed indicators in output suggest companies still being cautious in their hiring even with an increase in production”, Susan Spence, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said. On the positive side, production accelerated (51.4 vs. 50.3), while the declines in new orders (47.1 vs. 46.4) and the backlog of orders (46.8 vs. 44.3) moderated. Price pressures also eased, with the prices index falling to 64.8 from 69.7.