美国股市在下午交易中转为负值，因市场权衡美联储降息前景和中东紧张局势升级。标准普尔500指数下跌0.3%，纳斯达克指数下跌0.7%，道琼斯指数回落40点。美联储理事沃勒表示，降息最早可能在7月到来，这与主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔更为谨慎、依赖数据的立场形成了鲜明对比。半导体股——包括英伟达、博通和台积电——下跌超过1%，此前有报道称美国可能撤销出口豁免。当特朗普总统将美国军事介入以色列-伊朗冲突的决定推迟两周时，地缘政治紧张局势加剧，尽管以色列升级了对伊朗战略目标的打击。周五的“三重转换”到期增加了波动性，促使短期国债反弹，并推动两年期国债收益率下跌4个基点。本周，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数分别上涨0.2%和0.5%，道琼斯指数上涨0.3%。

Stocks in the US turned negative in afternoon trading as markets weighed Federal Reserve rate-cut prospects and escalating Middle East tensions. The S&P 500 declined 0.3%, the Nasdaq slid 0.7%, and the Dow pulled back by 40 points. Fed Governor Waller’s suggestion that rate cuts could arrive as early as July contrasted sharply with Chair Jerome Powell’s more cautious, data-dependent stance. Semiconductor shares—including Nvidia, Broadcom, and TSMC—dropped over 1% after reports indicated the US may revoke export waivers. Geopolitical jitters intensified when President Trump postponed a decision on US military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict for two weeks, even as Israel escalated strikes on strategic Iranian targets. Friday’s “triple witching” expiration added volatility, prompting a rebound in shorter-dated Treasuries and driving two-year yields down four basis points. On the week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained of 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively, while the Dow rose 0.3%.

由于投资者权衡地缘政治紧张局势、美联储政策信号和半导体股的压力，美国股市在下午的交易中挣扎着寻找明确的方向。标准普尔500指数下跌0.1%，纳斯达克指数下跌0.3%，道琼斯指数上涨近100点，这得益于州长克里斯托弗·沃勒对美联储最早可能在7月降息的乐观情绪。他的言论与美联储主席鲍威尔早些时候的立场形成了鲜明对比，即美联储仍然不急于放松政策，特别是在通胀风险与特朗普总统的关税挂钩的情况下。与此同时，英伟达、博通和台积电等芯片股下跌超过1%，此前有报道称美国可能撤销出口豁免，这增加了该行业的新担忧。在地缘政治方面，市场仍然紧张，因为特朗普推迟了关于美国军事介入伊朗-以色列冲突的决定，为外交谈判留下了空间。本周，标准普尔500指数上涨0.2%，道琼斯指数上涨0.3%，纳斯达克指数上涨0.5%。

US stocks struggled for a clear direction in the afternoon session as investors weighed geopolitical tensions, Federal Reserve policy signals, and pressure on semiconductor stocks. The S&P 500 was down 0.1% the Nasdaq fell 0.3%, while the Dow added nearly 100 points, supported by optimism over potential Fed rate cuts as early as July, suggested by Governor Christopher Waller. His remarks offered a contrast to Fed Chair Powell’s earlier stance that the central bank remains in no rush to ease policy, especially with inflation risks tied to President Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, chip stocks like Nvidia, Broadcom, and TSMC declined over 1% after reports indicated the US may revoke export waivers, adding fresh concerns for the sector. On the geopolitical front, markets remained tense as Trump delayed a decision on US military involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict, leaving room for diplomatic negotiations. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Dow gained 0.3%, and the Nasdaq added 0.5%.

美元预测：随着7月降息押注的增加，DXY在50天均线附近停滞。美元预测：随着7月降息押注的增加，DXY在50天均线附近停滞

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Stalls Near 50-Day MA as July Rate Cut Bets Grow.US Dollar Forecast: DXY Stalls Near 50-Day MA as July Rate Cut Bets Grow

投资者将继续关注以色列-伊朗冲突的发展，特别是美国军事介入的可能性，以及全球贸易谈判的最新进展。人们的注意力还将转向美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在国会的证词，因为市场正在寻找鹰派基调与依赖数据的方法相平衡的迹象。在数据方面，美国发布的主要数据包括个人消费支出报告、耐用品订单和商品贸易平衡。包括美国、欧元区、日本和印度在内的主要经济体的快速PMI也将公布。

Investors will remain focused on developments in the Israel-Iran conflict, particularly the potential for US military involvement, along with updates on global trade negotiations. Attention will also turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress, as markets look for signs of a hawkish tone balanced by a data-dependent approach. On the data front, key US releases include the PCE report, durable goods orders, and the goods trade balance. Flash PMIs for major economies—including the US, Eurozone, Japan, and India—are also due.