今天到目前为止，美元还没有涨到太多。美元在很大程度上保持不变，只是今天迄今为止兑日元汇率明显下跌。欧元/美元持平于1.1723，英镑/美元仅下跌0.1%，至1.3695，而澳元/美元目前也小幅上涨至0.6535。

Dollar not up to too much so far on the day.The dollar is keeping little changed for the most part, only notably seen down against the yen so far today. EUR/USD is flat at 1.1723 with GBP/USD down just 0.1% to 1.3695 while AUD/USD is also marginally higher at 0.6535 currently.

周一，美国10年期国债收益率徘徊在4.28%左右，在投资者等待本周关键就业数据之际仍面临压力，该数据可能揭示劳动力市场疲软的迹象，并加强美联储降息的理由。美联储此前曾将有弹性的劳动力市场作为在评估提高关税的影响时保持利率稳定的理由。然而，低于预期的6月就业报告可能会使人们最早在7月降息。主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近在国会作证时表示，如果没有关税带来的通胀压力，美联储可能会继续放松政策，这加剧了鸽派情绪。与此同时，市场参与者也在密切关注特朗普总统在参议院提出的全面减税和支出法案的进展，该法案预计将增加3.3万亿美元的国债，进一步加剧财政担忧。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hovered around 4.28% on Monday, remaining under pressure as investors awaited this week’s key employment data, which could reveal signs of labor market softness and strengthen the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut. The Fed has previously cited a resilient labor market as justification for holding rates steady while assessing the impact of elevated tariffs. However, a weaker-than-expected June jobs report could shift expectations toward a rate cut as early as July. Adding to the dovish sentiment, Chair Jerome Powell recently signaled during congressional testimony that, absent inflationary pressures from tariffs, the Fed would likely have continued easing policy. Meanwhile, market participants are also closely watching the progress of President Trump’s sweeping tax-cut and spending bill in the Senate, which is projected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt—further fueling fiscal concerns.

美元下跌，因对美国贸易协议的乐观情绪提振了美联储的宽松押注。周一，美元兑欧元汇率跌至近四年来的最低水平，市场对美国贸易协议的乐观情绪提振了对美联储早些时候降息的押注。

Dollar droops as optimism over US trade deals boost Fed easing bets.The dollar wallowed near its lowest in nearly four years against the euro on Monday as market optimism over U.S. trade deals bolstered bets for earlier Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

周一，美元指数徘徊在97.2左右，徘徊在2022年2月以来的最低水平，因为市场正在努力应对美联储更加温和的前景、日益加剧的财政担忧和持续的贸易不确定性。投资者正在等待本周美国关键的就业数据，这可能会揭示劳动力市场疲软的迹象，并加强最早在7月降息的理由。尽管美联储此前曾将劳动力市场的弹性作为保持耐心的原因，但6月份疲软的就业报告可能会促使政策制定者更快采取行动。与此同时，重点仍然是参议院目前正在审议的全面税收和支出法案，该法案预计将增加3.3万亿美元的国债。在地缘政治方面，以色列和伊朗之间的停火似乎正在维持，缓解了全球紧张局势，抑制了对美元的避险需求。美元兑英镑跌至近四年低点，兑瑞士法郎跌至十多年低点。

The US dollar index hovered around 97.2 on Monday, lingering at its lowest level since February 2022, as markets grappled with a more dovish Federal Reserve outlook, mounting fiscal concerns, and ongoing trade uncertainty. Investors are awaiting key US employment data this week, which could reveal signs of softening in the labor market and strengthen the case for a rate cut as early as July. While the Fed has previously cited labor market resilience as a reason to remain patient, a weak June jobs report could prompt policymakers to act sooner. Meanwhile, focus remains on the sweeping tax and spending bill currently under Senate consideration, which is projected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt. On the geopolitical front, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding, easing global tensions and dampening safe-haven demand for the dollar. The greenback sank to a near four-year trough on the sterling and a more than decade low on the Swiss franc.