周四，10年期美国国债收益率徘徊在4.36%左右，在本周早些时候波动后趋于稳定。美联储如预期般保持利率稳定，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔重申，考虑降息还为时过早，对何时开始宽松政策几乎没有提供任何指导。作为回应，市场降低了今年降息的预期，目前预计到12月只会降息35个基点。投资者还吸收了强于预期的经济数据，包括稳健的第二季度GDP增长和强劲的私人就业数据。现在的注意力转向周四即将公布的个人消费支出通胀和失业救济申请数据，随后是周五的7月就业报告，以获取进一步的政策线索。与此同时，财政部维持了票据和债券的发行量，但指出将增加长期名义回购和更多TIPS回购的数量，限制长期工具的供应。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note hovered around 4.36% on Thursday, stabilizing after volatile moves earlier in the week. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as expected, with Chair Jerome Powell reiterating it remains too early to consider rate cuts and offering little guidance on when easing might begin. In response, markets scaled back expectations for rate cuts this year, now pricing in just 35 basis points of easing by December. Investors also absorbed stronger-than-expected economic data, including solid second-quarter GDP growth and robust private employment figures. Attention now turns to upcoming PCE inflation and jobless claims data on Thursday, followed by the July jobs report on Friday for further policy clues. Meanwhile, the Treasury maintained issuance volumes for notes and bonds, but noted it will increase the volume of long-end nominal buybacks and more TIPS buybacks, limiting supply of longer maturity instruments.

周四，美元指数徘徊在99.8左右，接近两个月高点，此前美联储如预期般将利率稳定在4.25%-4.5%。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔重申，现在考虑降息还为时过早，对任何潜在的宽松政策的时机都没有明确说明。在他发表讲话后，市场下调了对今年降息的预期，目前预计到12月只会降息35个基点。投资者还权衡了强于预期的美国数据，GDP增长和私人就业均高于预期。现在的注意力转向周四即将公布的个人消费支出通胀和失业救济申请数据，随后是周五的7月就业报告。在贸易方面，美国与韩国达成了一项关税协议，而特朗普总统对巴西和印度征收了新的高额关税。美元指数7月份将上涨约3%，这是今年以来的首次月度上涨。

The US dollar index hovered around 99.8 on Thursday, near a two-month high, after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.5%, as expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that it was too early to consider rate cuts and offered little clarity on the timing of any potential easing. Following his remarks, markets dialed back expectations for rate cuts this year, now pricing in just 35 basis points of easing by December. Investors also weighed stronger-than-expected US data, with GDP growth and private employment both topping forecasts. Attention now turns to upcoming PCE inflation and jobless claims data on Thursday, followed by the July jobs report on Friday. On the trade front, the US reached a tariff deal with South Korea, while President Trump imposed steep new levies on Brazil and India. The dollar index is on pace to rise about 3% in July, marking its first monthly gain of the year.

美联储不急于降息，美元今年首月上涨。周四，美元触及两个月高点，此前美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在一项受到密切关注的政策决定中坚持了他对利率的耐心态度，并且对何时可以降低利率几乎没有提供任何见解。

Dollar eyes first monthly gain for the year as Fed in no hurry to ease rates.The dollar flirted with a two-month peak on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stuck to his patient approach on rates in a closely watched policy decision and offered little insight on when they could be lowered.

7月联邦公开市场委员会决定后美元反弹，鲍威尔暗示关税通胀短期有效。美联储在7月份的政策会议上将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%的范围内，而主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在新闻发布会上发表了一些鹰派言论。

USD Rallies After July FOMC Decision, Powell Suggests Tariffs Inflation Short-Lived.The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range in their July policy meeting while Chairperson Jerome Powell dropped some hawkish remarks during the press conference.