周一，10年期国债收益率攀升3个基点，至4.13%左右，有迹象表明，可能正在达成一项协议，以结束创纪录的长期政府停摆。参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩周日表示，一项联邦预算协议正在形成，可能会在1月之前重新开放政府，并扭转最近的一些联邦裁员。报道还表明，即使不延长医疗补贴，一些民主党人也可能支持该计划，尽管不确定性仍然很高。上周疲软的美国经济数据加剧了市场的紧张情绪，密歇根大学的消费者信心指数降至近三年半以来的最低水平，挑战者报告显示10月份裁员激增。在货币政策方面，市场对美联储12月可能降息仍存在分歧，交易员预计降息25个基点的可能性约为67%，与周五持平。

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed 3 basis points to around 4.13% on Monday amid signs that a deal may be emerging to end the record-long government shutdown. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Sunday that a federal budget agreement is taking shape, potentially reopening the government through January and reversing some recent federal layoffs. Reports also suggested that some Democrats could back the package even without extending health care subsidies, though uncertainty remains high. Weak US economic data last week added to market jitters, with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index falling to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years and the Challenger report showing a surge in October job cuts. In monetary policy, markets remain divided on a potential Fed rate cut in December, with traders pricing in roughly a 67% chance of a quarter-point reduction, unchanged from Friday.

周一，美元指数在连续三个交易日下跌后稳定在99.6左右，这得益于可能达成协议以结束创纪录的政府关门的迹象。参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩周日表示，一项联邦预算协议正在形成，可能会在1月之前重新开放政府，并扭转最近的一些联邦裁员。报道还表明，即使不延长医疗补贴，一些民主党人也可能支持该计划，尽管不确定性仍然很高。周五，密歇根大学的消费者信心指数跌至近三年半以来的最低水平，受到长期停摆、持续通胀和个人财务状况下降的拖累，美元面临压力。在货币政策方面，市场对美联储是否会在12月降息仍存在分歧，交易员预计降息25个基点的可能性约为67%，与周五持平。

The dollar index steadied around 99.6 on Monday after falling for three straight sessions, buoyed by signs that a deal may be emerging to end the record-long government shutdown. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Sunday that a federal budget agreement is taking shape, potentially reopening the government through January and reversing some recent federal layoffs. Reports also suggested that some Democrats could support the package even without an extension of health care subsidies, though uncertainty remains high. The dollar came under pressure on Friday after the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years, weighed down by the prolonged shutdown, persistent inflation, and declining personal finances. In monetary policy, markets remain divided on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December, with traders pricing in roughly a 67% chance of a quarter-point reduction, unchanged from Friday.

彭博新闻社周一报道称，在温和的参议院民主党人同意支持一项重新开放政府并为关键部门提供资金的协议后，美国政府创纪录的停摆即将结束。该协议将为农业、退伍军人事务部和国会提供全年资金，同时为其他机构提供资金至1月30日。它还恢复了休假工人的工资，恢复了联邦对各州和地方的支付，并召回了下岗员工。参议院最早可能在周二进行程序性投票，如果两党支持成立，预计将在本周晚些时候最终通过。参议院多数党领袖查尔斯·舒默表示，“虽然这项协议并不能解决所有问题，但它代表着恢复政府运作的关键一步。”众议院议长迈克·约翰逊补充道，“我们有义务结束这一僵局，这是美国人民的责任。”关于边境安全资金和长期预算限制的谈判仍在继续。

The record-breaking U.S. government shutdown is nearing an end after moderate Senate Democrats agreed to back a deal to reopen the government and fund key departments, Bloomberg News reported on Monday. The agreement would grant full-year funding for Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, and Congress, while keeping other agencies funded through January 30. It also restores pay for furloughed workers, resumes federal payments to states and localities, and recalls laid-off employees. A procedural Senate vote could take place as early as Tuesday, with final passage expected later in the week if bipartisan support holds. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer said that “while this deal doesn’t resolve every issue, it represents a critical step toward restoring government operations.” House Speaker Mike Johnson added, “We owe it to the American people to end this impasse.” Negotiations continue over border security funding and long-term budget limits.

美元保持稳定，因对政府关门可能很快结束的希望缓和了对增长的担忧。周一早盘亚洲交易中，美元保持坚挺，因为一系列疲软的经济数据重新引发了全球增长担忧，尽管有迹象表明国会可能正在接近一项可能重启美国政府的协议，这削弱了其安全出价。

Dollar steady as growth worries tempered by hopes shutdown may end soon.The U.S. dollar held firm in early Asian trading on Monday as a string of weak economic data revived global growth worries, though signs that Congress may be edging closer to a deal that could reopen the U.S. government blunted its safety bid.