市场焦点将转向美国和中国之间潜在的关税谈判、美联储的利率决定、美联储官员随后的言论，以及一波第一季度财报。此外，关键数据包括ISM服务业采购经理人指数和外贸数据。在全球范围内，预计英国、巴西、波兰和挪威将做出利率决定。瑞士、土耳其、菲律宾、墨西哥和巴西的通胀数据将受到密切关注。加拿大将公布其劳动力市场报告以及贸易平衡数据，加拿大、法国、德国、巴西和中国还将公布其他贸易数据。与此同时，德国将公布工厂订单和工业生产数据，中国将报告服务业采购经理人指数和新的人民币贷款。

Market focus will turn to potential tariff negotiations between the U.S. and China, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, and subsequent remarks from Fed officials, alongside a wave of Q1 earnings reports. Also, key data releases include the ISM Services PMI and foreign trade figures. Globally, interest rate decisions are expected from the UK, Brazil, Poland, and Norway. Inflation data will be closely watched in Switzerland, Turkey, the Philippines, Mexico, and Brazil. Canada will release its labour market report alongside trade balance figures, with additional trade data due from Canada, France, Germany, Brazil, and China. Meanwhile, Germany will publish factory orders and industrial production numbers, and China will report on services PMI and new yuan loans.

每周焦点——聚焦鲍威尔。美联储理事杰罗姆·鲍威尔将在下周再次成为焦点，即将于周三举行的FOCM会议上，人们普遍预计利率将保持不变（市场价格只有7%的降息可能性）。这可能会引起美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的愤怒，他本周重申“他应该降低利率”。

Weekly Focus – Powell in the Spotlight.Fed governor Jerome Powell will be in the spotlight again the coming week with the upcoming FOCM meeting on Wednesday where rates are widely expected to stay on hold (market prices only 7% probability of a rate cut). That is likely to draw the ire of US President Donald Trump who repeated this week that “he should reduce interest rates“.

美元预测：尽管美联储前景转变，就业报告强劲，但DXY仍下跌。由于强劲的就业数据缓和了美联储的降息预期，DXY指数下跌；交易员权衡关税风险，等待央行发出更明确的信号。

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Slips Despite Strong Jobs Report as Fed Outlook Shifts.DXY slips as strong payrolls data tempers Fed cut bets; traders weigh tariff risks and await clearer signals from the central bank.

2025年3月，美国制成品新订单较上月激增4.3%，达到6188亿美元，较上月向下修正的0.5%增长有所加速，与市场4.5%的增长预期大致一致。这是自去年7月以来的最大增幅，因为客户在白宫4月份实施激进关税并迫使工厂提高价格之前加快了货物订单。耐用品行业的订单激增（9.2%，至3157亿美元），运输设备行业的订单增长（27.1%，至1246亿美元）大幅增加，而初级金属（1.1%，至279亿美元）、金属制品（0.1%，至370亿美元）和机械（0.1%，达378亿美元）的订单增长较为疲软。另一方面，电脑和电子产品的订单下降了1.3%，至254亿美元。

New order for US manufactured goods surged by 4.3% from the previous month to $618.8 billion in March of 2025, accelerating from the downwardly revise 0.5% increase from the previous month and loosely in line with market expectations of a 4.5% jump. It was the sharpest increase since July of last year as clients expedited orders of goods before the aggressive tariffs by the White House kicked in during April and forced factories to raise prices. Orders surged in durable goods industries (9.2% to $315.7 billion), carried by transportation equipment (27.1% to $124.6 billion), while softer increases were noted in primary metals (1.1% to $27.9 billion), fabricated metal products (0.1% to $37 billion) and machinery (0.1% to $37.8 billion). On the other hand, orders fell for computers and electronic products (-1.3% to $25.4 billion).