美国政府正在进行的停摆，目前是历史上持续时间最长的一次，可能会延长美国经济数据发布的暂停时间。这将使私人数据成为焦点，包括每周ADP就业数据和NFIB小企业乐观指数。在欧洲，数据更新将以英国的GDP和劳动力市场洞察为头条，英国将加入欧元区发布工业生产数据。在亚洲，投资者将转向中国的工业生产、零售销售、房地产价格和信贷总量数据。此外，日本将公布其最新的GDP估计。最后，随着财报季的放缓，思科、迪士尼和应用材料公司将在美国公布业绩，而其他主要公司的业绩包括腾讯、阿里巴巴、软银、索尼、西门子、慕尼黑再保险和安联。

The ongoing US government shutdown, now the longest in history, is likely to extend the halt in US economic data releases. This will leave the spotlight to private data, featuring weekly ADP employment figures and the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. In Europe, data updates will be headlined by the GDP and labor market insights in the UK, which will join the Eurozone in releasing industrial production. In Asia, investors will turn to China's data dump for industrial production, retail sales, property prices, and credit aggregates. Also, Japan will post its fresh GDP estimates. Finally, a slowing earnings season will see results from Cisco, Disney, and Applied Materials in the US while major reports elsewhere include Tencent, Alibaba, Softbank, Sony, Siemens, Munich Re, and Allianz.

周五，由于对人工智能股票估值和美国经济健康状况的担忧，标准普尔500指数下跌1.1%，纳斯达克指数暴跌1.9%，道琼斯指数下跌300多点，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，并预示着又一周的下跌。密歇根大学的消费者信心降至50.3，为历史第二低，因为消费者越来越担心政府停摆可能对经济产生的影响。本周早些时候，数据还表明劳动力市场正在降温。科技股仍是最大的输家，其次是非必需消费品，而消费必需品和能源股的表现优于其他股。英伟达股价下跌4.1%，连续第四天下跌。其他大市值也较为疲软，包括亚马逊（-1.3%）、Meta（-2.4%）、Alphabet（-2.8%）、博通（-4%）和甲骨文（-3.6%）。特斯拉股价下跌3.8%，此前股东批准了埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）潜在的1万亿美元薪酬方案。本周，标准普尔500指数下跌1.8%，道琼斯指数下跌1.4%，纳斯达克指数下跌2.8%。

The S&P 500 fell 1.1%, the Nasdaq plunged 1.9% and the Dow Jones declined more than 300 points on Friday, extending the previous session’s losses and pointing to another weekly decline, amid concerns over AI stock valuations and the health of the US economy. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment fell to 50.3, the second-lowest on record, as consumers grew increasingly concerned about the potential economic fallout from the government shutdown. Early in the week, data also pointed to a cooling labour market. Tech remained the biggest loser, followed by consumer discretionary while consumer staples and energy outperformed. Nvidia slipped 4.1%, marking a fourth straight day of losses. Other megacaps were also weaker, including Amazon (-1.3%), Meta (-2.4%), Alphabet (-2.8%), Broadcom (-4%), and Oracle (-3.6%). Tesla fell 3.8% after shareholders approved Elon Musk’s potential $1 trillion pay package. For the week, the S&P 500 is down 1.8%, the Dow Jones 1.4%, and the Nasdaq 2.8%.

2025年10月，美国一年期通胀预期中值降至3.2%，低于9月份的3.4%，9月份的通胀预期中值创下五个月新高。未来三年和五年的通胀预期保持在3.0%不变，表明长期前景保持稳定。房价增长预期连续第五个月稳定在3.0%。与此同时，对未来一年的商品价格预期下降，天然气下降0.7个百分点至3.5%，食品下降0.1个百分点至5.7%。相比之下，对某些关键支出的预期有所上升。受访者预计大学教育成本将上涨8.2%（+1.2个百分点），医疗保健成本将上涨9.4%（+0.1个百分点，为2023年2月以来的最高水平），租金将上涨7.2%（+0.2个百分点）。

Median inflation expectations in the United States fell to 3.2% for the one-year horizon in October 2025, down from 3.4% in September, which had marked a five-month high. Expectations for inflation three and five years ahead remained unchanged at 3.0%, suggesting longer-term views remain stable. Home price growth expectations held steady at 3.0% for the fifth consecutive month. Meanwhile, year-ahead commodity price expectations declined, dropping 0.7 percentage points for gas to 3.5% and 0.1 percentage point for food to 5.7%. In contrast, expectations for certain key expenses moved higher. Respondents projected college education costs to rise 8.2% (+1.2 pp), medical care costs to increase 9.4% (+0.1 pp, the highest since February 2023), and rent to climb 7.2% (+0.2 pp).

10年期美国国债收益率从一个月高点4.16%降至4.1%，因为经济疲软的复合迹象有利于美联储下个月降息的前景。密歇根州消费者信心指数在11月意外跌至历史第二低。此外，挑战者报告反映了10月份裁员的激增，企业称消费者疲软和削减成本的企业措施。随着政府持续停摆，官方数据的发布停止，这些调查的重要性被放大了。尽管如此，较高的通货膨胀率和强劲的经济活动使30%的市场为美联储下个月的持有做好了准备。ISM服务业采购经理人指数在10月份的涨幅超过预期，而其价格指数则升至三年来的最高点。与此同时，财政部表示，随着美联储成为短期证券的净买家，以抵消MBS的流失，它将继续将更高的发行量集中在票据而不是息票证券上。

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to4.1% from the one-month high of 4.16% as compounding signs of a weaker economy favored the outlook of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month. The Michigan consumer sentiment index unexpectedly sank to it second-lowest on record in November. Also, the Challenger report reflected a surge in job cuts in October with firms citing a weaker consumer and cost-cutting corporate measures. The surveys were magnified in importance as the ongoing government shutdown halted the release of official data. Still, higher inflation and robust economic activity maintained 30% of the market to be positioned for a hold by the Fed next month. The ISM Services PMI rose more than expected in October, while its price gauge rose to a three year high. Meanwhile, the Treasury signaled it will continue to concentrate higher issuance volumes in bills instead of coupon securities, as the Fed becomes of net buyer of short securities to offset the run-off for MBSs.