周五，10年期美国国债收益率攀升至4.23%以上，连续第二天上涨，因为投资者期待4月份的就业报告，以寻找不断变化的贸易动态如何影响更广泛经济的线索。周四的ISM制造业报告加剧了人们的担忧，显示工厂活动以五个月来最快的速度萎缩，在需求疲软的情况下，产量出现了自2020年以来的最大跌幅。此前公布了一系列疲软数据，包括第一季度国内生产总值收缩和每周申请失业救济人数增至24.1万人，为2月以来的最高水平，这引发了劳动力市场降温的危险信号。在贸易方面，中国宣布正在考虑与美国进行贸易谈判，此前华盛顿方面一再进行接触。唐纳德·特朗普总统还对与印度、日本和韩国的潜在贸易协议表示乐观，并重申他对与中国达成协议的信心。

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed above 4.23% on Friday, marking a second consecutive day of gains as investors looked ahead to the April jobs report for clues on how evolving trade dynamics are influencing the broader economy. Thursday’s ISM manufacturing report added to concerns, showing factory activity contracted at the fastest pace in five months, with output posting its steepest decline since 2020 amid weakening demand. This followed a string of soft data, including a contraction in first-quarter GDP and a rise in weekly jobless claims to 241,000—the highest level since February—raising red flags about a cooling labor market. On the trade front, China announced it is considering trade talks with the U.S. following repeated outreach from Washington. President Donald Trump also expressed optimism about potential trade deals with India, Japan, and South Korea, and reaffirmed his confidence in reaching an agreement with China.

尽管ISM制造业PMI收缩加剧，但美元走强。美元上涨，此前月度“工厂健康”检查强于预期，缓解了投资者对进口税上调的担忧。

U.S. Dollar Strengthens Despite Deeper ISM Manufacturing PMI Contraction.The U.S. dollar rose after a monthly “factory health” check came in stronger than expected and eased investor worries about higher taxes on imports.

美国2025年4月非农就业数据——值得关注的关键估计范围。看看与关键数据点的中值共识（上图中的“预期”）相比的预期范围：

US April 2025 non-farm payrolls data - the critical key ranges for estimates to watch.Taking a look at the range of expectations compared to the median consensus (the 'expected' in the screenshot above) for the key data points:

周五，美元指数保持在100以上，有望连续第二周上涨，因为全球贸易紧张局势的缓解降低了衰退风险，提振了对美元的信心。在华盛顿多次尝试进行外联活动后，中国宣布正在评估与美国进行贸易谈判的可能性。本周早些时候，唐纳德·特朗普总统还暗示了与印度、日本和韩国可能达成的贸易协定，并表示对与中国可能达成的协议充满信心。与此同时，最新的GDP、私人就业数据和每周失业救济申请数据表明，美国经济活动放缓，支持了对美联储近期降息的押注，并限制了美元的反弹。投资者现在将注意力转向4月份的就业报告，该报告可以让投资者更深入地了解不断变化的贸易政策如何影响经济。

The US dollar index held above 100 on Friday and was on track for a second consecutive weekly gain, as easing global trade tensions reduced recessionary risks, lifting sentiment toward the currency. China announced it is evaluating the possibility of trade talks with the US, following multiple outreach attempts from Washington. Earlier this week, President Donald Trump also hinted at potential trade agreements with India, Japan, and South Korea, and expressed confidence in a possible deal with China. Meanwhile, the latest GDP, private payrolls and weekly jobless claims data pointed to slowing US economic activity, supporting bets on near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts and limiting the dollar’s rally. Investors now turn their attention to the April jobs report which can give investors more insights on how shifting trade policies are affecting the economy.