在积极的NFP报告发布后，交易员们削减了对美联储的鸽派押注。最显著的变化当然是美联储。催化剂是昨天美国公布的积极NFP报告，交易员将温和的押注从年底前的67个基点下调至现在的54个基点。

Traders pare back their dovish bets on the Fed after the positive NFP report.The most notable change was of course on the Fed. The catalyst was the positive US NFP report yesterday which saw traders paring back their dovish bets from 67 bps of easing by year-end to 54 bps now.

6月非农就业冲击：14.7万个工作岗位扼杀美联储削减希望，高盛、摩根大通分析师作出反应。2025年6月非农就业分析：为什么14.7万个就业岗位的增加扼杀了7月的美联储降息。高盛、摩根大通的反应和市场影响解释道。

June NFP Shock: 147K Jobs Kill Fed Cut Hopes as Goldman, JPMorgan Analysts React.Non-farm payrolls June 2025 analysis: Why 147K job gain killed July Fed rate cuts. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan reactions & market impact explained.

周五，美元指数跌破97点，结束了为期两天的反弹，对贸易政策的担忧再次打压市场情绪。唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布计划开始就贸易问题发出信函，可能在7月9日谈判截止日期之前设定单边关税税率，这给全球市场注入了新的不确定性。与此同时，众议院通过了特朗普的全面减税和支出法案，该法案现在将提交白宫。该法案预计将使联邦预算赤字增加3万亿美元以上，增加长期财政风险。与此同时，美国经济在6月份增加了14.7万个工作岗位，超过了11万个的预期，比5月份的14.4万个有所增加。这些数据有助于缓解经济衰退的担忧，并减轻美联储在短期内降息的压力。

The US dollar index slipped below 97 on Friday, snapping a two-day rally as renewed concerns over trade policy weighed on sentiment. President Donald Trump announced plans to begin issuing letters on trade matters, potentially setting unilateral tariff rates ahead of the July 9 negotiation deadline—injecting fresh uncertainty into global markets. At the same time, the House of Representatives passed Trump’s sweeping tax cuts and spending bill, which now heads to the White House. The legislation is projected to expand the federal budget deficit by over $3 trillion, adding to longer-term fiscal risks. Meanwhile, the US economy added 147,000 jobs in June, beating expectations of 110,000 and marking an increase from May’s 144,000. The data helped ease recession concerns and reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the near term.

随着人们的目光转向特朗普的贸易Salvo，美元短暂反弹。

Dollar Bounce Short-Lived as Eyes Turn to Trump's Trade Salvo.