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The dollar index fell below 98.5 on Thursday, sliding for the third straight session as escalating US-China trade tensions, the prolonged government shutdown, and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts weighed on the greenback. When asked whether the US would remain in a trade war with China if President Trump and President Xi fail to reach an agreement during their upcoming meeting in South Korea, Trump replied, “We’re in one now.” Still, Treasury Secretary Bessent hinted at the possibility of extending the current trade truce beyond three months if Beijing suspends plans for new export controls on rare earth minerals. Meanwhile, the government shutdown entered its third week, delaying key economic data releases that could inform policy decisions. Fed Chair Powell highlighted signs of labor market weakness in a Tuesday speech, reinforcing market bets on a rate cut this month, another in December, and as many as three more next year.

中美贸易紧张局势加剧，美元走软。周四，由于中美贸易战削弱了投资者情绪，美元下跌，而人们对美联储今年降息的信心日益增强，这也给美元带来了压力。

Dollar soft as Sino-US trade tension weighs.The U.S. dollar slipped on Thursday as the Sino-U.S. trade war sapped investor sentiment, while growing confidence of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting its policy interest rate this year also weighed on the greenback.

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特周三表示，美国即将完成与韩国的贸易协议，并补充说，他预计将在未来10天内宣布。贝森特告诉CNBC：“我们即将结束与韩国的谈判。”他指出，官员们正在“敲定细节”。本周，两国将在国际货币基金组织和世界银行在华盛顿举行的会议间隙进行会谈。贝森特还表示相信，关于韩国承诺的投资的分歧可能很快就会得到解决，他说：“我相信分歧可以得到解决。”当被问及为韩国提供货币互换机制的可能性时，他说这将由美联储决定，尽管他很惊讶这样的安排还没有到位。

The U.S. is nearing completion of a trade deal with South Korea, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday, adding he expects an announcement within the next 10 days. “We are about to finish up with Korea,” Bessent told CNBC, noting that officials are “ironing out the details.” Talks between both countries are taking place this week on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington. Bessent also expressed confidence that disagreements over South Korea’s promised investments could be settled soon, saying, “I’m sure the differences can be resolved.” When asked about the possibility of a currency swap facility for South Korea, he said the decision would rest with the Federal Reserve, though he was surprised such an arrangement was not already in place.

美联储褐皮书：随着经济增长，通胀压力扩大，招聘持平。美联储周三发布的褐皮书显示，美国经济基本停滞不前，自上次报告以来，整体活动“几乎没有变化”。在12个地区中，有3个地区报告了轻微至适度的增长，5个地区没有变化，4个地区表示略有疲软。

Fed's Beige Book: Inflation pressures broaden as growth, hiring flat.The Fed's Beige Book released Wednesday indicated that the U.S. economy has largely stalled, with “little change” in overall activity since the previous report. Out of the 12 regional districts, three reported slight to modest growth, five showed no change, and four signaled mild softening.