美元指数价格预测：突破下行通道后徘徊在100.00附近。追踪美元兑一篮子六种主要货币表现的美元指数（DXY）在连续三个交易日上涨后正在下跌，在撰写本文时交易价格接近100.10。在即将发布的非农就业报告之前，市场情绪仍然谨慎，因为投资者希望了解关税可能如何影响就业趋势。

US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Hovers near 100.00 after breaking above descending channel.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is losing ground after registering gains in the previous three successive sessions, trading near 100.10 at the time of writing. Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, as investors look for insight into how tariffs may be impacting employment trends.

周五，10年期美国国债收益率攀升至4.23%以上，连续第二天上涨，因为投资者期待4月份的就业报告，以寻找不断变化的贸易动态如何影响更广泛经济的线索。周四的ISM制造业报告加剧了人们的担忧，显示工厂活动以五个月来最快的速度萎缩，在需求疲软的情况下，产量出现了自2020年以来的最大跌幅。此前公布了一系列疲软数据，包括第一季度国内生产总值收缩和每周申请失业救济人数增至24.1万人，为2月以来的最高水平，这引发了劳动力市场降温的危险信号。在贸易方面，中国宣布正在考虑与美国进行贸易谈判，此前华盛顿方面一再进行接触。唐纳德·特朗普总统还对与印度、日本和韩国的潜在贸易协议表示乐观，并重申他对与中国达成协议的信心。

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed above 4.23% on Friday, marking a second consecutive day of gains as investors looked ahead to the April jobs report for clues on how evolving trade dynamics are influencing the broader economy. Thursday’s ISM manufacturing report added to concerns, showing factory activity contracted at the fastest pace in five months, with output posting its steepest decline since 2020 amid weakening demand. This followed a string of soft data, including a contraction in first-quarter GDP and a rise in weekly jobless claims to 241,000—the highest level since February—raising red flags about a cooling labor market. On the trade front, China announced it is considering trade talks with the U.S. following repeated outreach from Washington. President Donald Trump also expressed optimism about potential trade deals with India, Japan, and South Korea, and reaffirmed his confidence in reaching an agreement with China.

尽管ISM制造业PMI收缩加剧，但美元走强。美元上涨，此前月度“工厂健康”检查强于预期，缓解了投资者对进口税上调的担忧。

U.S. Dollar Strengthens Despite Deeper ISM Manufacturing PMI Contraction.The U.S. dollar rose after a monthly “factory health” check came in stronger than expected and eased investor worries about higher taxes on imports.

美国2025年4月非农就业数据——值得关注的关键估计范围。看看与关键数据点的中值共识（上图中的“预期”）相比的预期范围：

US April 2025 non-farm payrolls data - the critical key ranges for estimates to watch.Taking a look at the range of expectations compared to the median consensus (the 'expected' in the screenshot above) for the key data points: