周一，10年期美国国债收益率连续第二个交易日上涨至4.43%以上，因为宏观经济和地缘政治背景保持了通胀上行风险，限制了对美联储本周温和信号的预期。本周以色列和伊朗之间敌对行动的升级维持了能源价格的飙升，如果罢工影响该地区的能源供应，全球通胀可能会大幅上升，甚至可能恶化。与此同时，预计联邦公开市场委员会将在周三维持利率不变。政策制定者已经表示，由于贸易和财政政策的未来不明朗，美国经济前景的不确定性将阻碍他们明确的政策转向。利率期货显示，市场预计今年将有两次降息，而美联储利率决定发布的《经济预测摘要》将为政策制定者的观点与华尔街的观点形成对比提供线索。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose for a second session to above the 4.43% mark on Monday as macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrops maintained upside risks to inflation, limiting expectations for dovish signals by the Federal Reserve this week. The escalation of hostilities between Israel and Iran this week maintained the surge in energy prices, risking a broad increase for global inflation that could worsen if strikes impact energy supply form the region. In the meantime, the FOMC is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Policymakers had already stated that uncertainty in the US economic outlook due to the unclear future for trade and fiscal policy will prevent them from clear policy pivots. Rate futures show that markets expect two rate cuts for the year, and the Summary of Economic Projections released with the Fed's rate decision will offer clues on how policymakers' view contrast with those of Wall Street.