美元指数在上一交易日大幅下跌后，周五保持在100点以下，因为美国劳动力市场降温的迹象加剧了人们对美联储12月降息的预期。由于政府长期停摆推迟了官方就业数据的发布，交易员们依靠私人指标来评估劳动条件。Challenger的数据显示，10月份宣布裁员15.3万人，为22年来的最高水平，主要与人工智能集成和成本优化有关。市场加大了对12月降息的押注，预计降息25个基点的可能性约为70%，高于前一天的62%。与此同时，芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比表示，由于缺乏官方通胀数据，进一步宽松政策需要谨慎。由于投资者寻求日元避险，美元兑日元汇率下跌幅度最大。

The dollar index held below the 100 mark on Friday after a sharp drop in the previous session, as signs of a cooling US labor market fueled expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. With the prolonged government shutdown delaying the release of official employment data, traders relied on private indicators to assess labor conditions. Challenger data showed 153,000 announced job cuts in October, the highest for that month in 22 years, largely tied to AI integration and cost optimization. Markets increased bets on a December rate cut, pricing in about a 70% chance of a 25 bps reduction, up from 62% a day earlier. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the absence of official inflation data calls for caution on further easing. The dollar weakened most against the yen as investors sought safety in the Japanese currency.

美联储的Musalem：政策接近中性，关税对通胀的影响将在2026年减弱。圣路易斯联邦储备银行行长阿尔贝托·穆萨勒姆隔夜表示，今年的降息是“适当的”，但警告称，政策制定者必须对通胀风险保持谨慎。在一次活动中，他强调需要“在继续为就业部门提供一些保险的同时，对抗高于目标的通货膨胀”，这表明虽然宽松周期有助于稳定增长，但由于通货膨胀率仍高于2%，仍需保持警惕。

Fed's Musalem: Policy near neutral, tariff impact on inflation to fade in 2026.St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said overnight that this year's interest-rate cuts have been “appropriate”, but warned that policymakers must remain cautious about inflation risks. Speaking at an event, he emphasized the need to “lean against above-target inflation while continuing to provide some insurance to the employment sector,” suggesting that while the easing cycle has helped stabilize growth, vigilance is still warranted as inflation remains above 2%.

美联储的哈马克：政策几乎没有限制，通货膨胀仍然过高。克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克（Beth Hammack）一夜之间发表了明显的鹰派言论，警告称，在上周降息后，货币政策仍然“几乎没有限制性”。她仍然担心高通胀，并认为政策应该继续“逆通胀”。

Fed's Hammack: Policy barely restrictive, inflation still too high.Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack struck a notably hawkish tone overnight, warning that monetary policy remains only “barely restrictive” after last week's rate cut. She remains concerned about high inflation and believes policy should continue “leaning against it.

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The U.S. is moving ahead with President Donald Trump’s plan to pause penalties targeting China’s shipbuilding industry, a key concession in his interim trade pact with President Xi Jinping. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative announced on Thursday that it is seeking public feedback on a one-year truce that would suspend tariffs on Chinese imports, including ship-to-shore cranes and intermodal chassis, as well as fees on Chinese-built and -operated merchant ships docking at U.S. ports. In return, China has agreed to halt its retaliatory measures following last week’s meeting between Trump and Xi. The move effectively freezes for a year any new tariffs or penalties linked to a U.S. probe into China’s maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors.