鲍威尔迫使货币市场重新考虑12月降息。昨天的欧洲央行会议没有发生任何事件，如果说有什么不同的话，那就是随着经济增长的下行风险减弱，进一步提高了降息的门槛。欧洲央行行长拉加德指的是美欧贸易协议、中东停火以及美西关系取得的进展。

Powell Forces Money Markets into Resetting View on a December Rate Cut.Yesterday's ECB meeting was a non-event that, if anything, further raised the bar for rate cuts as downside risks to growth abated. ECB president Lagarde was referring to the US-EU trade deal, the ceasefire in the middle east and the progress made in the US-Sino relations.

欧洲央行的Kocher：预测显示我们在持续的时间内实现了目标。欧洲央行的Kocher：预测显示我们在持续的时间内实现了目标

ECB's Kocher: Projections show us on target for sustained time.ECB's Kocher: Projections show us on target for sustained time

由于美联储政策前景的不确定性，美元指数徘徊在99.50左右。由于美联储政策前景的不确定性，美元指数徘徊在99.50左右

US Dollar Index hovers around 99.50 due to uncertainty surrounding Fed policy outlook.US Dollar Index hovers around 99.50 due to uncertainty surrounding Fed policy outlook

周五，美元指数保持在99.5左右，接近三个月高点，本月有望上涨近2%，因为投资者降低了对美联储进一步降息的预期。美联储周三公布了普遍预期的25个基点的降息，但主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔强调，12月的另一项举措并不能保证。市场暗示，12月降息的可能性从会前的90%以上大幅降至约75%。与此同时，特朗普-习会议结束时，美国同意降低对中国商品的关税，而北京承诺限制芬太尼出口，增加美国大豆采购，并暂停稀土出口管制。10月，在支持扩张性财政措施和继续宽松货币政策的首相高一当选后，美元兑日元汇率创下最大月度涨幅。

The dollar index held near three-month highs around 99.5 on Friday and was poised to rise nearly 2% for the month as investors dialed back expectations for further Federal Reserve rate cuts. The Fed delivered a widely anticipated quarter-point reduction on Wednesday, but Chair Jerome Powell stressed that another move in December is not guaranteed. Market-implied odds of a December cut fell sharply to about 75% from over 90% before the meeting. Meanwhile, the Trump-Xi meeting ended with the US agreeing to lower tariffs on Chinese goods, while Beijing pledged to curb fentanyl exports, boost US soybean purchases, and pause rare earth export controls. The dollar posted its biggest monthly gains against the yen in October following the election of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who favors expansionary fiscal measures and continued loose monetary policy.