美国收益率曲线显示出温和的熊市趋势。随着周五关税驱动的美国国债抛售放缓，美国30年期国债收益率昨日距离触及5%的心理关口仅一步之遥。尽管如此，美国收益率曲线仍显示出一些温和的熊市趋势，日收益率变化在+1.4个基点（2年期）至+2.8个基点（30年期）之间。

US Yield Curve Showed Some Gentle Bear Steepening.The US 30-yr yield was a whisker away from touching the psychological 5% mark yesterday as Friday's tariff-driven sell-off in US Treasuries slowed. Still the US yield curve showed some gentle bear steepening with daily yield changes ranging between +1.4 bps (2-yr) and +2.8 bps (30-yr).

欧洲指数在开盘时略高，关注美国通胀数据。贸易发展将暂停一天，因为我们等待欧盟和美国在8月1日的最后期限前进行谈判。这里的最新头条新闻表明，还有相当大的差距需要弥合，所以我们将看看未来两周的讨论结果。

European indices just a little higher at the open, eyes on US inflation data.Trade developments will be put on hold for the day ahead, as we await the negotiations between the EU and US by the 1 August deadline. The latest headlines here suggest that there is still quite a gap to bridge, so we'll see what comes from the discussions over the next two weeks.

美国CPI报告是未来一天的主要亮点。这张照片总是能一次又一次地出现。但自4月以来，特朗普的互惠关税导致价格压力上升，这还为时过早吗？

US CPI report the key highlight in the day ahead.This image always finds a way to come back time and time again. But is it still a bit too early to see price pressures ramp up as a result from Trump's reciprocal tariffs since April?

周二，美国10年期国债收益率保持在4.43%以上，徘徊在一个月高点，因为投资者正在等待6月份的消费者价格指数，这是一个关键数据点，可能会揭示特朗普政府关税政策的通胀影响。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最近表示，由于持续的关税压力，今年夏天通货膨胀可能会上升，这增强了人们对美联储可能会推迟到今年晚些时候降息的预期。然而，对央行独立性的担忧依然存在，唐纳德·特朗普总统继续批评鲍威尔，并坚持认为利率应为1%或更低。在贸易方面，特朗普表示愿意恢复与欧盟和其他主要伙伴的关税谈判。尽管如此，在他威胁要对俄罗斯征收100%的二级关税后，地缘政治紧张局势升级，除非在50天内与乌克兰达成和平协议。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held above 4.43% on Tuesday, hovering at a one-month high as investors awaited the June consumer price index, a key data point that could reveal the inflationary impact of the Trump administration’s tariff policies. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently signaled that inflation is likely to rise this summer due to ongoing tariff pressures—reinforcing expectations that the Fed may hold off on interest rate cuts until later this year. However, concerns over the central bank’s independence persist, with President Donald Trump continuing his criticism of Powell and insisting that interest rates should be at 1% or lower. On the trade front, Trump indicated a willingness to resume tariff negotiations with the European Union and other key partners. Still, geopolitical tensions escalated after he threatened to impose secondary tariffs of 100% on Russia unless a peace agreement with Ukraine is reached within 50 days.