标准普尔500指数周五下跌0.2%，纳斯达克指数下跌0.5%，道琼斯指数上涨35点，投资者权衡美联储降息的前景和中东地缘政治紧张局势的加剧。美联储理事沃勒表示，降息最早可能在7月到来，这与鲍威尔主席更为谨慎、依赖数据的立场形成了鲜明对比。英伟达（Nvidia）和台积电（TSMC）等半导体股下跌超过1%，此前有报道称美国可能撤销出口豁免，引发了人们对全球芯片供应链的担忧。在特朗普总统推迟就美国可能参与以色列-伊朗冲突作出决定后，地缘政治的不确定性加剧，尽管以色列加强了对伊朗关键目标的打击。周五的“三重转换”到期增加了波动性，促使短期国债反弹，并推动两年期国债收益率下跌4个基点。本周，标准普尔500指数和道琼斯指数分别下跌0.3%和0.1%，纳斯达克指数上涨0.1%。

The S&P 500 closed 0.2% lower on Friday, the Nasdaq fell 0.5%, while the Dow added 35 points, as investors weighed the prospects of Federal Reserve rate cuts against rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Fed Governor Waller’s suggestion that rate cuts could arrive as early as July contrasted sharply with Chair Powell’s more cautious, data-dependent stance. Semiconductor stocks like Nvidia and TSMC, dropped over 1% following reports that the US may revoke export waivers, raising concerns over global chip supply chains. Geopolitical uncertainty deepened after President Trump delayed a decision on potential US military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, even as Israel intensified its strikes on key Iranian targets. Friday’s “triple witching” expiration added volatility, prompting a rebound in shorter-dated Treasuries and driving two-year yields down four basis points. On the week, the S&P 500 and the Dow fell 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively, while Nasdaq added 0.1%.

美国股市在下午交易中转为负值，因市场权衡美联储降息前景和中东紧张局势升级。标准普尔500指数下跌0.3%，纳斯达克指数下跌0.7%，道琼斯指数回落40点。美联储理事沃勒表示，降息最早可能在7月到来，这与主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔更为谨慎、依赖数据的立场形成了鲜明对比。半导体股——包括英伟达、博通和台积电——下跌超过1%，此前有报道称美国可能撤销出口豁免。当特朗普总统将美国军事介入以色列-伊朗冲突的决定推迟两周时，地缘政治紧张局势加剧，尽管以色列升级了对伊朗战略目标的打击。周五的“三重转换”到期增加了波动性，促使短期国债反弹，并推动两年期国债收益率下跌4个基点。本周，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数分别上涨0.2%和0.5%，道琼斯指数上涨0.3%。

Stocks in the US turned negative in afternoon trading as markets weighed Federal Reserve rate-cut prospects and escalating Middle East tensions. The S&P 500 declined 0.3%, the Nasdaq slid 0.7%, and the Dow pulled back by 40 points. Fed Governor Waller’s suggestion that rate cuts could arrive as early as July contrasted sharply with Chair Jerome Powell’s more cautious, data-dependent stance. Semiconductor shares—including Nvidia, Broadcom, and TSMC—dropped over 1% after reports indicated the US may revoke export waivers. Geopolitical jitters intensified when President Trump postponed a decision on US military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict for two weeks, even as Israel escalated strikes on strategic Iranian targets. Friday’s “triple witching” expiration added volatility, prompting a rebound in shorter-dated Treasuries and driving two-year yields down four basis points. On the week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained of 0.2% and 0.5%, respectively, while the Dow rose 0.3%.

由于投资者权衡地缘政治紧张局势、美联储政策信号和半导体股的压力，美国股市在下午的交易中挣扎着寻找明确的方向。标准普尔500指数下跌0.1%，纳斯达克指数下跌0.3%，道琼斯指数上涨近100点，这得益于州长克里斯托弗·沃勒对美联储最早可能在7月降息的乐观情绪。他的言论与美联储主席鲍威尔早些时候的立场形成了鲜明对比，即美联储仍然不急于放松政策，特别是在通胀风险与特朗普总统的关税挂钩的情况下。与此同时，英伟达、博通和台积电等芯片股下跌超过1%，此前有报道称美国可能撤销出口豁免，这增加了该行业的新担忧。在地缘政治方面，市场仍然紧张，因为特朗普推迟了关于美国军事介入伊朗-以色列冲突的决定，为外交谈判留下了空间。本周，标准普尔500指数上涨0.2%，道琼斯指数上涨0.3%，纳斯达克指数上涨0.5%。

US stocks struggled for a clear direction in the afternoon session as investors weighed geopolitical tensions, Federal Reserve policy signals, and pressure on semiconductor stocks. The S&P 500 was down 0.1% the Nasdaq fell 0.3%, while the Dow added nearly 100 points, supported by optimism over potential Fed rate cuts as early as July, suggested by Governor Christopher Waller. His remarks offered a contrast to Fed Chair Powell’s earlier stance that the central bank remains in no rush to ease policy, especially with inflation risks tied to President Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, chip stocks like Nvidia, Broadcom, and TSMC declined over 1% after reports indicated the US may revoke export waivers, adding fresh concerns for the sector. On the geopolitical front, markets remained tense as Trump delayed a decision on US military involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict, leaving room for diplomatic negotiations. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.2%, the Dow gained 0.3%, and the Nasdaq added 0.5%.

美元预测：随着7月降息押注的增加，DXY在50天均线附近停滞。美元预测：随着7月降息押注的增加，DXY在50天均线附近停滞

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Stalls Near 50-Day MA as July Rate Cut Bets Grow.US Dollar Forecast: DXY Stalls Near 50-Day MA as July Rate Cut Bets Grow