欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——周四早盘美元交易平静。周四早盘，美元小幅横盘整理。在这个时间点上，市场仍然很嘈杂，因为我们正试图弄清楚下一步要去哪里。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Quiet in Early Thursday Trading.The US dollar was a bit sideways in the early part of the Thursday session. At this point in time, the market continues to be noisy, as we are trying to sort out where we are going to go next.

澳大利亚储备银行将在9月份保持不变，之后仍有可能进一步削减。我们已经相信，澳大利亚储备银行将在9月份的会议上保持不变，并将现金利率保持在3.6%。在本周8月部分通胀数据公布后，任何认为下周降息的可能性挥之不去的人都会排除这种可能性。

RBA to Remain on Hold in September, Further Cuts Still Likely Afterwards.We already believed that the RBA would remain on hold at its September meeting and keep the cash rate at 3.6%. Anyone who thought there was a lingering chance of a cut next week will have ruled it out following this week's August partial inflation data.

周四，标准普尔/澳交所200指数微涨0.1%，收于8773点，在矿业和能源股的支撑下弥补了前一交易日的一些损失。在Freeport-McMoRan宣布其位于印度尼西亚格拉斯伯格矿发生不可抗力事件后，铜价飙升至15个月高点，矿业股上涨。矿业指数上涨1.7%，达到近21个月来的最高点，行业巨头必和必拓和力拓各上涨3.6%。能源公司也上涨1.9%，伍德赛德（2.5%）和桑托斯（2.1%）领涨，因美国原油库存意外下降导致油价上涨。不利的一面是，随着金价从历史高点回落，黄金矿商下跌1.7%，北极星下跌近2%。与此同时，对利率敏感的金融股喜忧参半，CBA下跌0.4%，西太平洋银行上涨1.3%。在最近的数据显示8月份消费者价格高于预期，导致市场减少对澳大利亚储备银行近期宽松政策的押注后，风险情绪仍然谨慎。掉期交易现在表明，下周降息的可能性只有6.5%，11月降息的可能性为38.2%。

The S&P/ASX 200 edged up 0.1% to finish at 8,773 on Thursday, recouping some losses in the previous session, supported by mining and energy stocks. Miners rallied as copper prices surged to a 15-month high after Freeport-McMoRan declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. The mining index jumped 1.7% to its highest in nearly 21 months, with sector giants BHP and Rio Tinto up 3.6% each. Energy firms also added 1.9%, led by Woodside (2.5%) and Santos (2.1%), as oil prices rose on a surprise drop in US crude inventories. On the downside, gold miners dropped 1.7% as bullion retreated from record highs, with Northern Star down nearly 2%. Meanwhile, rate-sensitive financials were mixed, with CBA down 0.4% and Westpac up 1.3%. Risk sentiment remained cautious after recent data showed a hotter-than-expected consumer prices in August, leading markets to scale back bets on near-term RBA easing. Swaps now indicate only a 6.5% chance of a rate cut next week and 38.2% in November.

澳元/日元价格预测：98.00以上仍有建设性前景。周四欧洲早盘，澳元/日元交叉交易在98.05附近持平。日本央行7月会议纪要显示，董事会成员预计，如果通胀和经济如预期般发展，央行将继续加息。

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Constructive outlook remains in play above 98.00.The AUD/JPY cross trades flat near 98.05 during the early European session on Thursday. Minutes from the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) July meeting revealed that board members expect the central bank to keep hiking if inflation and the economy move as estimated.