澳元展望：澳大利亚储备银行、美国ISM和ADP成为焦点。上周，澳元表现优于其他货币，此前强劲的通胀数据破灭了澳大利亚储备银行今年降息的希望。随着央行的谨慎立场得到证实，人们的注意力现在转向即将公布的就业数据和美国数据，包括ISM和ADP报告，以寻找澳元/美元下一步走势的线索。

Australian Dollar Outlook: RBA, US ISM and ADP In Focus.The Australian dollar outperformed its peers last week after strong inflation data dashed hopes of an RBA rate cut this year. With the central bank vindicated in its cautious stance, attention now shifts to upcoming employment figures and US data releases — including the ISM and ADP reports — for clues on the next move in AUD/USD.

荷兰合作银行将澳元兑美元6个月预测上调至0.67。澳元表现优于其他货币，因降息押注再次出现。澳元在整个G10国家交易中普遍走强，兑瑞士法郎上涨1.70%，兑英镑上涨1.68%，兑美元小幅下跌0.51%，兑欧元小幅下跌0.75%。澳元/新西兰元交叉汇率稳定在1.1451。

Australian Dollar to US Dollar 6-Month Forecasts Raised to 0.67 at Rabobank.Australian Dollar Outperforms as Rate Cut Bets Recede The Australian dollar has traded broadly firmer across the G10, posting gains of 1.70% against the Swiss franc, 1.68% versus the pound, and modest losses of 0.51% against the US dollar and 0.75% versus the euro. The AUD/NZD cross is holding firm at 1.1451.

不给糖就捣蛋？通胀扰乱澳大利亚储备银行，等待现金利率下调的时间更长。可能需要一个多季度的时间才能消除9月份季度CPI的冲击。预计5月和8月将两次下调现金利率；推迟启动将导致进一步的宽松政策。

Trick or Treat? Inflation Spooks RBA, Longer Wait for Cash Rate Cuts.It will likely take more than one quarter to undo the shock of the September quarter CPI. Two cash rate cuts expected, in May and August; a later start would induce additional easing.

标准普尔/澳交所200指数周五上涨0.4%，至8920点左右，结束了连续三个交易日的下跌，这得益于黄金股和矿商因大宗商品价格上涨而上涨。黄金矿商在追踪金价时领涨，金价一夜之间恢复了一些强势。行业领军企业纽蒙特和巴里克矿业分别上涨超过3%。此外，矿业巨头力拓（RioTinto）和莱纳斯稀土（Lynas Rare Earths）领涨，分别上涨0.8%和2.1%。金融股也上涨，“四大”银行上涨0.6%至1.5%。在美国和中国同意缓解贸易紧张局势后，投资者继续权衡经济前景。在韩国达成的停战协议暂停了稀土出口争端，尽管分析人士指出，双方都在为未来的谈判保留筹码。本周，澳大利亚证券交易所（ASX）将出现自3月下旬以来的最大跌幅，这是由于越来越多的人押注澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）将在11月保持利率，而通胀报告却出乎意料地强劲。

The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.4% to around 8,920 on Friday, snapping its three-session losing streak, buoyed by gains in gold stocks and miners on higher commodity prices. Gold miners led the charge as they tracked bullion prices, which regained some strength overnight. Sector leaders Newmont and Barrick Mining climbed over 3% each. Additionally, heavyweight miners extended gains, led by mining giants Rio Tinto and Lynas Rare Earths, up 0.8% and 2.1%, respectively. Financials also advanced, with the “Big Four” banks rising between 0.6% and 1.5%. Investors continued to weigh the economic outlook after US and China agreed to ease trade tensions. The truce, reached in South Korea, paused a dispute over rare earth exports, though analysts noted both sides are keeping leverage for future talks. For the week, the ASX is on track for its sharpest drop since late March, weighed by growing bets that the RBA will hold rates in November amid a surprisingly strong inflation report.