周五，澳元攀升至0.64美元以上，从上一交易日的下跌中反弹，因为对美中贸易谈判的乐观情绪日益高涨，提振了全球情绪。中国宣布，在美国官员多次尝试进行外联活动后，正在评估贸易谈判的前景。本周早些时候，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普还建议与印度、日本和韩国达成潜在的贸易协议，同时对与中国达成协议表示乐观。在国内方面，数据显示，3月份澳大利亚零售额增长0.3%，略低于预期的0.4%。再加上核心通胀疲软，最新数据提振了市场对澳大利亚储备银行近期降息的预期。人们普遍预计澳大利亚储备银行将在5月份将现金利率下调25个基点至3.85%，市场预计到年底将进一步降至2.85%。

The Australian dollar climbed above $0.64 on Friday, rebounding from the previous session’s losses as growing optimism over US-China trade negotiations lifted global sentiment. China announced it is evaluating the prospect of trade talks following multiple outreach attempts by US officials. Earlier in the week, US President Donald Trump also suggested potential trade deals with India, Japan, and South Korea, while expressing optimism about an agreement with China. On the domestic front, data showed Australian retail sales rose 0.3% in March, slightly below expectations of 0.4%. Combined with softening core inflation, the latest figures bolstered market expectations of a near-term rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA is widely anticipated to lower its cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% in May, with markets pricing in a further decline to 2.85% by year-end.

尽管零售销售月环比低于预期，澳元仍保持坚挺。周五，澳元（AUD）兑美元（USD）小幅反弹，收复了前一交易日的部分跌幅。然而，澳元/美元对仍然脆弱，因为金属价格下跌打压了市场情绪。

Australian Dollar holds ground despite a weaker-than-expected Retail Sales MoM.The Australian Dollar (AUD) is rebounding modestly against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, retracing some of the previous session's losses. However, the AUD/USD pair remains vulnerable as falling metal prices weigh on sentiment.

2025年3月，澳大利亚零售额环比增长0.3%，此前2月增长0.2%，但低于市场预期的0.4%。这标志着零售营业额连续第三个月增长。大多数类别的销售额都有所增长，包括食品零售（2月份为0.7%对0.6%）、其他零售（0.7%对-0.9%）以及服装、鞋类和个人配饰（0.3%对0.5%）。家庭用品零售在上个月下降0.3%后保持不变。不利的一面是，咖啡馆、餐馆和外卖食品服务（-0.5%对0.2%）以及百货商店（-0.5%比1.5%）的销售额下降。按地区划分，新南威尔士州（0.5%）、维多利亚州（0.6%）、南澳大利亚州（0.2%）、西澳大利亚州（0.3%）、塔斯马尼亚州（0.5%。

Retail sales in Australia rose by 0.3% month-on-month in March 2025, following a 0.2% increase in February but falling short of market expectations of 0.4%. This marked the third consecutive month of retail turnover growth. Sales rose across most categories, including food retailing (0.7% vs 0.6% in February), other retailing (0.7% vs -0.9%), and clothing, footwear, and personal accessories (0.3% vs 0.5%). Household goods retailing was unchanged after a 0.3% decline in the prior month. On the downside, sales declined in cafes, restaurants & takeaway food services (-0.5% vs 0.2%), and department stores (-0.5% vs 1.5%). By region, gains were seen in New South Wales (0.5%), Victoria (0.6%), South Australia (0.2%), Western Australia (0.3%), Tasmania (0.5%), the Northern Territory (0.7%), and the Australian Capital Territory (0.1%), while Queensland recorded a decline of 0.4%.

2025年第一季度，澳大利亚的最终需求生产者价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.9%，略高于市场预期的0.8%，并从2024年第四季度的0.8%增长加速，这是自2023年第二季度以来最疲软的季度增长。这标志着生产者价格通胀已连续第19个季度出现，主要原因是关键行业的增长。值得注意的是，受强劲需求和住宅租金上涨的支撑，房地产运营商录得1.1%的增长。与此同时，其他运输设备制造业的价格上涨了7.3%，反映了澳元贬值和劳动力成本增加。受通胀挂钩的学费调整的推动，高等教育增长了3.5%，尽管与2024年相比，工资增长幅度较小。按年度计算，生产者价格指数上涨3.7%，与上一季度持平，但仍是三年来最低的年度涨幅。

Australia's final demand Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2025, slightly above market expectations of 0.8% and accelerating from a 0.8% increase in Q4 2024, which was the softest quarterly gain since Q2 2023. This marked the 19th consecutive quarter of producer price inflation, driven primarily by increases in key sectors. Notably, property operators recorded a 1.1% rise, supported by strong demand and rising residential rents. Meanwhile, prices in other transport equipment manufacturing jumped 7.3%, reflecting the depreciation of the Australian dollar and increased labour costs. Tertiary education rose 3.5%, boosted by inflation-linked fee adjustments, although wage increases were more modest compared to 2024. On an annual basis, producer prices rose 3.7%, matching the pace of the previous quarter but still marking the slowest annual increase in three years.