周三,韩元兑美元汇率保持在1386左右,在美元再次走强的情况下接近两个月低点。此前,美国公布了更强劲的通胀数据,这似乎降低了人们对美联储7月份降息的预期。在国内方面,韩国劳动力市场保持坚挺,6月份失业率小幅降至2.8%。这种持续的低失业率被视为潜在经济弹性的标志,为韩元提供了一些支持,尽管该国正在应对不断上升的外部不确定性和全球需求放缓。然而,最近的数据显示,由于全球需求疲软、韩元走强以及能源和原材料成本下降,出口价格(同比-4.5%)和进口价格(同比-6.2%)持续下降。这些压力,加上韩国央行降息的可能性,可能会在短期内限制韩元的进一步上涨。
The South Korean won held around 1,386 per dollar on Wednesday, nearing two-month lows amid renewed dollar strength. This followed the release of stronger US inflation data, which appeared to lower expectations of a Federal Reserves rate cut in July. On the domestic front, South Korea’s labor market remained firm, with the unemployment rate edging down to 2.8% in June. This sustained low jobless rate is seen as a sign of underlying economic resilience, offering some support to the won, even as the country navigates rising external uncertainties and slowing global demand. However, recent data showed continued declines in both export (-4.5% YoY) and import prices (-6.2% YoY), amid weaker global demand, a firmer won, and falling energy and raw materials costs. These pressures, along with the possibility of rate cuts by the Bank of Korea, may cap further gains for the KRW in the near term.