美国2年期国债 (US2Y) 加自选

周三，美元指数升至99.4附近，连续第五个交易日上涨，交易员对美联储的最新政策决定做出了回应。正如预期的那样，美联储将联邦基金利率稳定在4.25%-4.5%，但修改了其经济前景，指出最近的指标表明，今年上半年经济活动有所放缓，这与早些时候的评估不同，即经济增长“稳健”。值得注意的是，两位州长投票赞成降息，这是自1993年以来首次有两名成员反对委员会的多数决定，这加剧了市场对今年晚些时候降息的预期

The dollar index strengthened to near 99.4 on Wednesday, rising for a fifth consecutive session as traders responded to the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. As expected, the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.5%, but revised its economic outlook, noting that recent indicators suggest a moderation in economic activity during the first half of the year—departing from earlier assessments that growth was proceeding 'at a solid pace.' Notably, two governors voted in favor of a rate cut—the first time since 1993 that two members dissented from the committee’s majority decision—fueling market expectations of a rate cut later this year

美联储再次跳过降息-但揭示了自1993年以来我们从未见过的事情。在唐纳德·特朗普总统数月来持续施压要求降息后，人们对即将召开的充满政治色彩的美联储会议寄予厚望，但美联储没有让步。然而，闭门造车后发生的事情揭示了几十年来最深刻的内部裂缝之一。

Fed Skips Rate Cut Again—But Reveals Something We Haven't Seen Since 1993.Anticipation was sky-high heading into a politically charged Federal Reserve meeting, after months of relentless pressure from President Donald Trump to deliver rate cuts, but the central bank didn't budge. Yet what unfolded behind closed doors revealed one of the most profound internal cracks in decades.

周三，10年期美国国债收益率从盘中早些时候的近一个月低点4.32%升至4.35%，因为市场评估了美联储的利率控制、新的GDP数据、债务供应文件和贸易发展。美联储维持利率不变，没有发出未来走势的信号，继续引用经济政策的不确定性，尽管鲍曼和沃勒是明年被提名为主席的领先者之一，他们反对削减投票。美国第二季度国内生产总值增长了3%，明显高于市场预期，尽管由于进口前期负荷的解除，外国净需求的大幅支持扭曲了数据。波动的贸易数据与特朗普总统提出的关税一致，特朗普总统增加了对印度和巴西的征税。与此同时，财政部维持了票据和债券的发行量，但指出将增加长期名义回购和更多TIPS回购的数量，限制长期工具的供应。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose to 4.35% on Wednesday from the near-one-month low of 4.32% earlier in the session as markets assessed the Fed's rate hold, fresh GDP data, debt supply documents, and trade developments. The Fed maintained rates unchanged and refrained from signaling future moves, continuing to cite uncertainty on economic policy, although Bowman and Waller, among the frontrunners to be nominated Chairman next year, dissented for a cut vote. The US GDP expanded by 3% in the second quarter, firmly above market estimates, although the sharp support from net foreign demand due to the unwind of import front-loading distorted the data. Volatile trade figures aligned with tariffs put up by President Trump, who increased levies on India and Brazil. Meanwhile, the Treasury maintained issuance volumes for notes and bonds, but noted it will increase the volume of long-end nominal buybacks and more TIPS buybacks, limiting supply of longer maturity instruments.

美联储保持稳定，反对者沃勒和鲍曼呼吁降息。正如普遍预期的那样，美联储将利率维持在4.25-4.50%不变，但委员会内部出现了罕见的分歧。州长米歇尔·鲍曼和克里斯托弗·沃勒表示反对，投票赞成降息25个基点。

Fed holds steady, dissenters Waller and Bowman call for cut.Fed held interest rates unchanged at 4.25–4.50% as widely expected, but a rare split emerged within the Committee. Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller dissented, voting in favor of a 25bps cut.