日本2年期国债 (Japan2Y) 加自选

活动指南：日本央行货币政策声明（2025年5月）。鉴于全球贸易的不确定性，日本央行的政策制定者是否正在转向不那么强硬的立场？以下是交易这种顶级催化剂时需要了解的关键点。

Event Guide: BOJ Monetary Policy Statement (May 2025).Are BOJ policymakers shifting to a less hawkish stance given global trade uncertainties? Here are the key points to know when trading this top-tier catalyst.

日元窄幅盘整，交易员等待日本央行政策更新。周三，日元（JPY）难以获得任何有意义的牵引力，在亚洲交易时段，日元兑美元汇率在涨跌互现的情况下在狭窄的交易区间内波动。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普签署了一项命令，以减轻新关税对汽车行业的影响。

Japanese Yen consolidates in narrow range as traders await BoJ policy update.The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Wednesday and oscillates in a narrow trading range against its American counterpart during the Asian session amid mixed cues. US President Donald Trump signed an order to ease the impact of new tariffs on the auto industry.

日本股市周三上涨，因市场在一天假期后重新开放。日经225指数微涨0.2%，至35900点左右，而东证指数上涨0.7%，至2670点，延续了最近的涨幅。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特的言论提振了投资者情绪，他表示，美国与日本就潜在的贸易协定进行了“实质性会谈”。然而，国内数据呈现出喜忧参半的局面——3月份工业生产下降幅度超过预期，零售销售增长低于预期。现在，人们的注意力转向了日本央行即将做出的政策决定，普遍预计央行将把利率稳定在0.5%，以衡量美国关税对日本出口导向型经济的潜在影响。涨幅最大的公司包括丰田工业（+4.7%）、三菱UFJ（+2.4%）、任天堂（+2.0%）、索尼集团（+5.2%）和Advantest（+2.1%）。

Japanese shares rose on Wednesday as markets reopened following a one-day holiday. The Nikkei 225 edged up 0.2% to around 35,900, while the broader Topix Index climbed 0.7% to 2,670, extending recent gains. Investor sentiment was buoyed by comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said the US held “substantial talks” with Japan regarding a potential trade agreement. However, domestic data provided a mixed picture—industrial production declined more than expected in March, and retail sales growth fell short of forecasts. Attention now shifts to the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy decision, where the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at 0.5% as it gauges the potential impact of US tariffs on Japan’s export-driven economy. Leading gainers included Toyota Industries (+4.7%), Mitsubishi UFJ (+2.4%), Nintendo (+2.0%), Sony Group (+5.2%), and Advantest (+2.1%).

2025年3月，日本零售额同比增长3.1%，低于上个月下调后的1.3%的增长率，低于市场预期的3.5%的增长率。这标志着零售销售连续第36个月扩张，工资上涨继续支持消费。燃料（1.8%）、汽车（1.5%）、机械设备（6.7%）、服装和个人用品（7.6%）、食品和饮料（1.9%）、非商店零售商（3.1%）、其他零售商（4.1%）和药品和化妆品（3.7%）的销售额增长。相比之下，百货商店的销售额下降了（-1.2%）。按月计算，3月份零售额下降了1.2%，这是三个月来的首次月度下降，扭转了2月份向下修正的0.4%的增长。

Retail sales in Japan increased by 3.1% year-on-year in March 2025, down from a downwardly revised 1.3% growth in the previous month, below market expectations of a 3.5% rise. This marked the 36th straight month of expansion in retail sales, with rising wages continuing to support consumption. Sales grew for fuel (1.8%), automobile (1.5%), machinery & equipment (6.7%), clothing & personal goods (7.6%), food & beverage (1.9%), non-store retailers (3.1%), other retailers (4.1%), and pharmaceuticals & cosmetics (3.7%). By contrast, sales fell for department stores (-1.2%). On a monthly basis, retail sales fell by 1.2% in March, the first monthly decline in three months, reversing a downwardly revised 0.4% gain in February.