WTI原油 (WestTexasOil) 加自选

英镑在美联储之前小幅上涨，投资者对英国央行的政策路径不确定。周三，英镑小幅上涨，投资者在消化了本周美国和欧盟达成贸易协议的消息后，等待美联储政策会议的结果。

Sterling edges up ahead of Fed, investors uncertain about BoE policy path.Sterling was marginally higher on Wednesday as investors awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, after digesting news this week of a trade deal between the United States and the European Union.

2025年第二季度，美国经济可能以2.4%的年化增长率增长，从第一季度0.5%的收缩中反弹，这是三年来的首次下降。第一季度的低迷是由进口激增推动的，因为在一系列关税公告后，企业和消费者在预期的价格上涨之前争相囤积商品。根据亚特兰大联邦储备银行GDPNow的估计，第二季度的增长预计将受到个人消费、政府支出和知识产权投资的支持。此外，进口可能下降近25%，出口下降幅度要小得多，净贸易的贡献为正。另一方面，住宅和非住宅建筑以及设备的投资预计将拖累增长。在6月份的预测中，美联储将2025年美国GDP增长预测从3月份的1.7%下调至1.4%。

The US economy likely grew at an annualized rate of 2.4% in the second quarter of 2025, rebounding from a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter which was the first decline in three years. The Q1 downturn was driven by a surge in imports, as businesses and consumers rushed to stockpile goods ahead of expected price increases following a series of tariff announcements. According to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate, second-quarter growth is expected to be supported by personal consumption, government spending and investment in intellectual property. In addition, imports likely sank nearly 25% and exports are seen falling much less, leaving the contribution from net trade positive. On the other hand, investment in residential and nonresidential structures, along with equipment, is expected to drag on growth. In its June projections, the Fed lowered its US GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.4%, down from 1.7% in March.

美联储政策会议成为焦点。昨天的第一批美国经济数据并不完全具有开创性。JOLTS 6月份的职位空缺接近预期，为743万个，较5月份的771万个有所缓解，而7月份世界大企业联合会的消费者信心指数从95.2升至97.2，略高于预期。

Fed Policy Meeting Takes Center Stage.Yesterday's first batch of US economic data wasn't exactly groundbreaking. JOLTS job openings in June came in close to expectations with 7.43mln, easing from the 7.71mln in May while the July Conference Board's consumer confidence indicator improved a bit more than expected from 95.2 to 97.2.

预计美联储将在2025年7月连续第五次会议将联邦基金利率稳定在4.25%-4.50%的目标区间，在人们越来越担心正在进行的贸易战可能会扭转2%通胀目标的进展之际，保持观望态度。6月份，年通货膨胀率连续第二个月加速至2.7%，为2月份以来的最高水平，高于5月份的2.4%。核心通货膨胀率也小幅上升，从前一个月的四年低点2.8%升至2.9%。与此同时，劳动力市场数据继续反映经济放缓，但整体状况仍然强劲。投资者仍在为9月份降息25个基点定价，预计未来12个月将放宽高达100个基点。与此同时，特朗普总统一直在加大对美联储的压力，要求其将利率降至1%。他一再公开批评美联储，并威胁要罢免鲍威尔主席，这引发了人们对美联储独立性受到侵蚀的担忧。

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at the 4.25%–4.50% target range for a fifth consecutive meeting in July 2025, maintaining its wait-and-see approach amid growing concerns that the ongoing trade war could reverse progress toward the 2% inflation target. The annual inflation rate accelerated for the second straight month to 2.7% in June—the highest since February—up from 2.4% in May. Core inflation also edged higher, reaching 2.9% from a four-year low of 2.8% in the previous month. Meanwhile, labor market data continues to reflect a slowdown, but overall conditions remain robust. Investors are still pricing in a 25bps rate cut in September, with expectations of up to 100bps of easing over the next 12 months. At the same time, President Trump has been intensifying pressure on the Fed to cut rates to 1%. His repeated public criticism of the central bank and threats to dismiss Chair Powell have raised concerns about the erosion of the Fed’s independence.