美元/土耳其里拉 (USDTRY) 加自选

美元下跌，因对美国贸易协议的乐观情绪提振了美联储的宽松押注。周一，美元兑欧元汇率跌至近四年来的最低水平，市场对美国贸易协议的乐观情绪提振了对美联储早些时候降息的押注。

Dollar droops as optimism over US trade deals boost Fed easing bets.The dollar wallowed near its lowest in nearly four years against the euro on Monday as market optimism over U.S. trade deals bolstered bets for earlier Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

周一，美元指数徘徊在97.2左右，徘徊在2022年2月以来的最低水平，因为市场正在努力应对美联储更加温和的前景、日益加剧的财政担忧和持续的贸易不确定性。投资者正在等待本周美国关键的就业数据，这可能会揭示劳动力市场疲软的迹象，并加强最早在7月降息的理由。尽管美联储此前曾将劳动力市场的弹性作为保持耐心的原因，但6月份疲软的就业报告可能会促使政策制定者更快采取行动。与此同时，重点仍然是参议院目前正在审议的全面税收和支出法案，该法案预计将增加3.3万亿美元的国债。在地缘政治方面，以色列和伊朗之间的停火似乎正在维持，缓解了全球紧张局势，抑制了对美元的避险需求。美元兑英镑跌至近四年低点，兑瑞士法郎跌至十多年低点。

The US dollar index hovered around 97.2 on Monday, lingering at its lowest level since February 2022, as markets grappled with a more dovish Federal Reserve outlook, mounting fiscal concerns, and ongoing trade uncertainty. Investors are awaiting key US employment data this week, which could reveal signs of softening in the labor market and strengthen the case for a rate cut as early as July. While the Fed has previously cited labor market resilience as a reason to remain patient, a weak June jobs report could prompt policymakers to act sooner. Meanwhile, focus remains on the sweeping tax and spending bill currently under Senate consideration, which is projected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt. On the geopolitical front, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding, easing global tensions and dampening safe-haven demand for the dollar. The greenback sank to a near four-year trough on the sterling and a more than decade low on the Swiss franc.

周一，美国股指期货上涨，华尔街计划在6月强势收市，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数均创下历史新高。本月，标准普尔500指数上涨4.42%，纳斯达克指数上涨6.07%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨3.67%。特朗普政府决定缩减全面的互惠关税，以及投资者对关键截止日期前贸易谈判进展的乐观情绪，推动了反弹。周五，在商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克宣布美国和中国已敲定贸易框架后，股市延续上涨。现在的注意力转向参议院，议员们正在参议院辩论唐纳德·特朗普总统的“美丽的大法案”，该法案提议大幅增加支出和减税。与此同时，越来越多的标普500指数公司发布了第二季度乐观的盈利预期，这得益于关税压力的缓解和地缘政治不确定性的降低。

US stock futures rose on Monday as Wall Street aimed to close out a strong June, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hitting new all-time highs. For the month, the S&P 500 has gained 4.42%, the Nasdaq 6.07%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average 3.67%. The rally has been fueled by the Trump administration's decision to scale back sweeping reciprocal tariffs, alongside investor optimism over progress in trade negotiations ahead of key deadlines. On Friday, equities extended gains after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick announced that the US and China had finalized a trade framework. Attention now turns to the Senate, where lawmakers are debating President Donald Trump’s "big beautiful bill," which proposes substantial spending increases and tax cuts. Meanwhile, a growing number of S&P 500 companies are issuing upbeat earnings guidance for the second quarter, buoyed by easing tariff pressures and reduced geopolitical uncertainty.

下周：美国就业数据备受关注。未来一周，美国将公布一系列关键的就业指标，这可能会进一步增加美联储今年进一步降息的可能性。

Week Ahead: US Jobs Data Is in Focus.The week ahead welcomes a slew of key US employment metrics, which may further increase the odds of additional cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year.