欧元/土耳其里拉 (EURTRY) 加自选

意大利10年期BTP收益率攀升至3.4%，为一周半以来的最高点，因为投资者消化了强于预期的欧元区PMI数据，同时等待今天晚些时候推迟发布的美国9月CPI，以了解美联储政策前景的线索。欧元区采购经理人指数升至17个月高点，服务业活动扩大，制造业恢复到中性的50水平。与此同时，意大利内阁本月早些时候批准了2026年预算法案，概述了187亿欧元的减税和支持措施。该计划目前面临议会辩论，并将于年底前获得批准，其目标是2026年公共赤字占GDP的2.8%，符合欧盟3%的财政门槛。

Yields on Italy’s 10-year BTPs climbed to 3.4%, a one-and-a-half-week high, as investors digested stronger-than-expected Eurozone PMI data while awaiting the delayed US September CPI release later today for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The Eurozone PMI rose to a 17-month high, with services activity expanding and manufacturing returning to the neutral 50 level. Meanwhile, Italy’s cabinet approved the 2026 budget bill earlier this month, outlining €18.7 billion in tax cuts and support measures. The plan, which now faces parliamentary debate and approval by year-end, targets a public deficit of 2.8% of GDP in 2026, in line with the EU’s 3% fiscal threshold.

土耳其BIST 100指数周五上涨4%，至11000点以上，追随土耳其法院驳回对该国主要反对党CHP的诉讼后土耳其所有资产类别的上涨。除了向投资者保证土耳其法院仍然在一定程度上独立于现任总统埃尔多安之外，这一决定还缓解了自伊斯坦布尔市长伊玛莫格鲁在3月宣布总统竞选之前被捕以来对政治风险的担忧，这导致自那以后从当地市场净撤出20亿美元。银行从这一消息中受益最大，Garanti Bankasi本周飙升13%，KOC飙升17%。与此同时，国防部门最近也支持BIST 100，因为欧洲的地缘政治不确定性促使北约成员国增加军费开支。Aselsan股价超过210土耳其里拉，标志着自年初以来飙升190%。

Turkey's BIST 100 index rallied 4% to over 11,000 on Friday, tracking the rise in all Turkish asset classes after the country's court dismissed its case against the country's main opposition party, the CHP. Besides reassuring investors that Turkish courts still have a degree of independence from incumbent President Erdogan, the decision softened concerns of political risk since the arrest of Istanbul mayor Imamoglu before his Presidential bid announcement in March, which resulted in a net $2 billion being pulled out from local markets since. Banks benefitted the most from the news, with Garanti Bankasi surging 13% and KOC soaring 17% on the week. In the meantime, the defense sector also supported the BIST 100 recently as geopolitical uncertainty in Europe drove NATO members to increase military spending. Aselsan stock surpassed TRY 210 to mark a 190% surge since the start of the year.

2025年10月，土耳其里拉兑美元汇率创下41.9的新低，将今年迄今的跌幅扩大到18%左右。自2023年7月以来，人民币的逐步和有管理的贬值一直持续。土耳其中央银行在外汇市场保持着坚定的存在，以严格控制里拉的走势，政府继续奉行所谓的“实际升值”政策。在货币政策方面，央行10月降息100个基点，符合预期。这标志着连续第三次降息，尽管是当前宽松周期中最小的一次，因为通货膨胀在15个月内首次加速，9月份达到33.29%。另外，土耳其一家法院驳回了一项旨在罢免主要反对党领袖并废除其2023年国会的案件，这一决定减轻了埃尔多安总统反对者的压力，并为今年严重影响土耳其市场的政治动荡提供了一些缓解。

The Turkish lira hit a new record low of 41.9 per US dollar in October 2025, extending its year-to-date decline to around 18%. The currency’s gradual and managed depreciation has persisted since July 2023. The Central Bank of Turkey has maintained a firm presence in the forex market to keep tight control over the lira’s movement and the government continues to pursue a policy of so-called “real appreciation”. On the monetary policy front, the central bank cut rates by 100bps in October, in line with expectations. This marked the third consecutive rate cut, though the smallest in the current easing cycle, as inflation accelerated for the first time in fifteen months, reaching 33.29% in September. Separately, a Turkish court dismissed a case seeking to remove the main opposition party’s leader and annul its 2023 congress, a decision that eases pressure on President Erdogan’s opponents and offers some relief from the political turmoil that has sharply weighed on Turkish markets this year.

法国10年期OAT收益率攀升至3.4%，接近两周高点，投资者消化了10月PMI数据，同时等待今天晚些时候美国通胀数据对美联储政策路径的指导。法国私营部门连续第14个月收缩，在持续的政治不确定性下，服务业和制造业均表现疲软。相比之下，欧元区的商业活动以2024年5月以来的最快速度扩张，超过了预期。人们的注意力也转向了穆迪计划于10月24日进行的信用评级审查，因为人们猜测，在上周标普下调评级后，前景可能会从稳定转为负面。法国2026年的预算仍在审查中，社会主义者警告说，如果他们的预算要求得不到满足，他们可能会推翻政府，并计划在下周早些时候提出不信任动议，除非亿万富翁被要求缴纳更高的税。

France’s 10-year OAT yield climbed to 3.4%, near a two-week high, as investors digested October PMI data while awaiting US inflation figures later today for guidance on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. The French private sector contracted for the 14th consecutive month, with weakness in both services and manufacturing amid ongoing political uncertainty. By contrast, Eurozone business activity expanded at its fastest pace since May 2024, surpassing forecasts. Attention also turns to Moody’s scheduled credit rating review on October 24, amid speculation the outlook could shift from stable to negative following last week’s S&P downgrade. France’s 2026 budget remains under review, with socialists warning they could topple the government if their budget demands are not met, planning to file a no-confidence motion early next week unless billionaires are required to pay higher taxes.