南非10年期国债 (SouthAfrica10Y) 加自选

南非兰特兑美元汇率约为18.1，为5月19日以来的最低水平，受到美元走强和8月1日截止日期前与美国达成贸易协议的不确定性的压力。南非贸易部长表示，在美国官员的敦促下，南非正在制定最后一刻的“强化”贸易提案，以避免定于周五征收30%的关税。与此同时，南非储备银行宣布将基准回购利率下调25个基点，降至7%，因为在全球经济不确定性的背景下，通货膨胀仍得到控制。政策制定者指出，兰特的强势和放缓的预期有助于将6月份的整体CPI保持在3%，核心通胀率保持在2.9%，处于目标区间的底部。与此同时，央行行长Kganyago表示，货币政策委员会目前的目标是将通胀率稳定在3%，即3%至6%目标区间的下限，央行将在未来的会议上使用3%通胀锚的预测。

The South African rand traded around 18.1 per USD, its lowest level since May 19, pressured by a stronger dollar and uncertainty over a trade agreement with the US before the August 1 deadline. South Africa’s trade minister stated that, urged by US officials, it is working on a last-minute “enhanced” trade proposal to avoid a 30% tariff scheduled for Friday. Meanwhile, the South African Reserve Bank announced a 25-basis-point cut to the benchmark repo rate, lowering it to 7%, as inflation remains contained against a backdrop of global economic uncertainty. Policymakers noted that the rand’s strength and moderating expectations helped keep headline CPI at 3% and core inflation at 2.9% in June, at the bottom of the target range. Meanwhile, Governor Kganyago said that the MPC now aims for inflation to settle at 3%, the lower end of the 3% to 6% target range and that the central bank will use forecasts with a 3% inflation anchor at future meetings.

南非储备银行于2025年7月31日一致将关键利率下调25个基点至7%，为2022年11月以来的最低水平。由于担心美国新的关税制度威胁到本已脆弱的经济，人们普遍预计会削减关税。政策制定者强调了持续的全球不确定性，并指出许多国家尚未在美国关税截止日期前敲定贸易协定。他们还观察到兰特走强，通胀预期更加温和，6月份的CPI显示整体通胀率为3%，核心通胀率为2.9%，均接近目标区间的下限。预计今年通货膨胀率将小幅上升至3.3%，然后在2027年稳定在3%。与此同时，由于持续的供应侧挑战，特别是物流方面的挑战，经济前景仍然低迷。因此，增长预测在2025年下调至0.9%（之前为1.1%），在2026年下调至1.3%（之前为1.5%），但在2027年上调至2%（之前为1.8%）。

The South African Reserve Bank unanimously reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 7% on July 31, 2025, the lowest level since November 2022. The cut was widely anticipated amid concerns over a new US tariff regime threatening the already fragile economy. Policymakers emphasized ongoing global uncertainty, noting that many countries have yet to finalize trade agreements before the US tariff deadline. They also observed a stronger rand and more moderate inflation expectations, with June’s CPI showing headline inflation at 3% and core inflation at 2.9%, both near the lower bound of the target range. Inflation is expected to rise modestly to 3.3% this year before stabilizing at 3% in 2027. Meanwhile, the economy’s outlook remains subdued due to persistent supply-side challenges, particularly in logistics. Consequently, growth forecasts were revised down to 0.9% in 2025 (from 1.1% previously) and 1.3% in 2026 (from 1.5%), but raised to 2% in 2027 (from 1.8%).

南非在2025年6月公布了220亿南非兰特的贸易顺差，比上个月向下修正的200亿南非兰特有所扩大。进口下降3.5%，至1486亿南非兰特，主要原因是矿产品采购量减少（-25%）；化工产品（-6%）和机械电子（-3%）。大洋洲（-19.9%）、非洲（-17.1%）和亚洲（-5.6%）的进口下降，但欧洲（6.5%）和美洲（3.6%）的进口有所增加。与此同时，由于贱金属出货量减少（-20%），出口下降1.9%，至1710亿南非兰特；贵金属和宝石（-8%）和矿产品（-6%）。海外销售额下降到欧洲（-5.7%）和非洲（-4.1%），但上升到大洋洲（87.2%）、美洲（6.9%）和亚洲（4.8%）。

South Africa posted a trade surplus of ZAR 22 billion in June 2025, widening from a downwardly revised ZAR 20 billion in the prior month. Imports dropped 3.5% to ZAR 148.6 billion, mainly on lower purchases of mineral products (-25%); chemical products (-6%) and machinery & electronics (-3%). Imports declined from Oceania (-19.9%), Africa (-17.1%) and Asia (-5.6%), but increased from Europe (6.5%) and America (3.6%). Meanwhile, exports fell at a slower 1.9% to ZAR 171 billion, due to reduced shipments of base metals (-20%); precious metals & stones (-8%) and mineral products (-6%). Overseas sales fell to Europe (-5.7%) and Africa (-4.1%), but rose to Oceania (87.2%), America (6.9%) and Asia (4.8%).

南非的PPI通胀率在2025年6月升至0.6%，为四个月来的最高水平，高于上个月的0.1%。对整体年度PPI通胀率的最大积极贡献者是食品、饮料和烟草制品，上涨了4%（5月份为3.7%），增加了1.2个百分点。另一方面，焦炭、石油、化工、橡胶和塑料制品的价格下跌（-4.7%对-6.4%）；纸张和印刷品（-2.6%对-2.9%）；以及电机、通信和计量设备（-1.9%对-1.3%）。生产者价格指数环比上涨0.2%，前一个月下降0.3%。

South Africa's PPI inflation rose to 0.6% in June 2025, the highest rate in four months, up from 0.1% in the prior month. The largest positive contributor to the headline annual PPI inflation rate was food, beverages, and tobacco products, which rose 4% (vs 3.7% in May) and added 1.2 percentage points. On the other hand, prices fell for coke, petroleum, chemical, rubber and plastic products (-4.7% vs -6.4%); paper and printed products (-2.6% vs -2.9%); and electrical machinery and communication and metering equipment (-1.9% vs -1.3%). On a monthly basis, producer prices went up by 0.2%, after decreasing by 0.3% in the previous month.