巴西10年期国债 (Brazil10Y) 加自选

巴西Ibovespa指数周四下跌0.7%，收于133071点，因外部和国内逆风的汇合对股市造成压力。尽管关键行业获得豁免，但特朗普总统对大多数巴西出口产品出人意料地征收50%的关税，这引发了人们对利润率和供应链稳定性的担忧，而9月份美联储降息的希望渺茫，美国核心个人消费支出通胀居高不下，这给全球风险情绪带来了压力。在国内，6月份471亿雷亚尔的初级赤字加深了财政担忧。与此同时，央行表示基准利率将“在很长一段时间内”保持在15%的信号破灭了货币救济的希望，拖累了对利率敏感的股票。Ambev在业绩令人失望后下跌5.7%，与银行、零售商和大宗商品出口商一起领跌。

Brazil’s Ibovespa fell 0.7% to close at 133,071 on Thursday, as a convergence of external and domestic headwinds pressured equities. President Trump’s surprise 50% tariff on most Brazilian exports, despite exemptions for key sectors,raised concerns over margins and supply-chain stability, while fading hopes for a September Fed rate cut and sticky US core PCE inflation weighed on global risk sentiment. Domestically, June’s R$47.1 billion primary deficit deepened fiscal concerns. Meanwhile, the Central Bank’s signal that the Selic will remain at 15% “for a very prolonged period” dashed hopes of monetary relief, dragging on rate-sensitive stocks. Ambev tumbled 5.7% after disappointing results, leading losses alongside banks, retailers, and commodity exporters.

周四，尽管有一些行业豁免，但美国下周将对巴西产品征收新的关税，Ibovespa指数下跌近1%，至133000点。此外，巴西央行暂停了紧缩周期，将塞利克利率维持在15%，并表示由于贸易政策的不确定性，将在很长一段时间内保持这一水平。卢拉总统谴责美国50%的关税是出于政治动机，是对国家主权的威胁。外交部长毛罗·维埃拉在华盛顿会见了美国国务卿马尔科·卢比奥，这是特朗普重返总统职位以来的首次正式接触，以解决这一问题。特朗普将关税与前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗的法律待遇联系起来，但通过豁免飞机、能源和橙汁等关键行业来减轻打击。淡水河谷（-1.4%）、CSN（-1.3%）和Gerdau（-1.2%）因黑色金属基准暴跌而下跌，而巴西航空工业公司（Embraer）因豁免消息而飙升近6%，将本周的涨幅扩大到25%。

The Ibovespa fell near 1% to 133,000 on Thursday following the new US tariffs on Brazilian products due next week, despite some sector exemptions. Also, Brazil’s central bank paused its tightening cycle by holding the Selic rate at 15% and signaling it will maintain the level for a prolonged period due to uncertainty surrounding trade policy. President Lula condemned the US’s 50% tariff as politically motivated and a threat to national sovereignty. Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington—the first official contact since Trump’s return to the presidency—to address the issue. Trump linked the tariffs to the legal treatment of former president Jair Bolsonaro, but softened the blow by exempting key sectors such as aircraft, energy, and orange juice. Vale (-1.4%), CSN (-1.3%), and Gerdau (-1.2%) dropped as ferrous metal benchmarks tumbled, while Embraer surged nearly 6% on news of the exemption, extending this week's rally to 25%.

在特朗普总统出人意料地对大多数巴西出口产品征收50%关税的行政命令的双重冲击下，巴西雷亚尔稳定在6月初的低点5.57美元附近，这颠覆了收入预测，注入了供应链的不确定性，在美联储将利率维持在4.25%-4.50%并强于预期的第二季度GDP和劳动力数据后，美元反弹至两个月高点。在国内，由于担心进一步的报复和不稳定的融资条件，截至7月25日，巴西对风险敏感的金融渠道记录了近19亿美元的净流出。然而，劳动力市场异常紧张，失业率处于历史最低水平5.8%，实际工资不断上涨，以及Copom决定将Selic保持在15%的20年峰值，维持慷慨的实际收益率，这吸引了套利交易流入，虽然缓和了雷亚尔的下跌，但尚未扭转这一趋势。

The Brazilian real steadied near early-June lows at 5.57 per USD under the twin shocks of President Trump’s surprise executive order imposing a 50% tariff on most Brazilian exports, which upended revenue forecasts and injected supply-chain uncertainty, and a greenback rallying to two-month highs after the Fed held rates at 4.25%–4.50% and stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP and labor data. Back home, Brazil’s risk-sensitive financial channels recorded nearly US$1.9 billion in net outflows through July 25th on fears of further retaliation and volatile funding conditions. However, an exceptionally tight labor market, with unemployment at a record-low 5.8% and rising real wages, and Copom’s decision to keep the Selic at a two-decade peak of 15%, sustaining generous real yields, have drawn carry-trade inflows that, while tempering the real’s decline, have yet to reverse it.

巴西的失业率从上一季度的7%大幅降至2025年第二季度的5.8%，为历史最低水平，低于市场对6%失业率的预期。这一数字巩固了劳动力市场紧张的观点，因为政府支出的增加刺激了经济，加强了央行关于利率应长期保持限制性的论点。本季度失业人口下降17.4%，至630万人，而净就业人数上升1.8%，至1.023亿人，创历史新高。尽管劳动力参与率创下历史新高，达到58.8%。反过来，实际工资每月小幅上涨37雷亚尔，至3447雷亚尔。

The unemployment rate in Brazil fell sharply to 5.8% in second quarter of 2025 from 7% in the previous quarter, the lowest on record, and below market expectations of a 6% unemployment rate. The figure consolidated the view of a tight labor market amid as increased government spending stimulates the economy, strengthening the central bank's argument that interest rates should remain restrictive for a prolonged period. The unemployed population sank by 17.4% on the quarter to 6.3 million people, while net employment rose by 1.8% to 102.3 million, a record high. This is despite the record high level of labor force participation, at a rate of 58.8%. In turn, real wages inched higher by R$37 to R$3,447 monthly.