巴西10年期国债 (Brazil10Y) 加自选

周五，Ibovespa指数小幅下跌0.2%，收于137500点附近，受以色列-伊朗紧张局势升级的压力，投资者情绪受到抑制。伊朗对以色列袭击其核设施和导弹设施进行报复后，全球市场下跌，引发了人们对更广泛冲突的担忧，并推动了对避险资产的需求。在美中潜在关税休战的最新消息公布之前，投资者也保持谨慎。在国内，焦点转向了金融交易税，因为众议院议长雨果·莫塔表示计划推动一项法令，暂停政府拟议的加息。在企业方面，油价飙升——在中东动荡期间上涨了7%——使巴西国家石油公司的股价上涨了2.5%。与此同时，风险敏感股下跌，淡水河谷下跌1.1%，路易莎杂志下跌6.6%，Bradesco下跌0.7%。巴西航空工业公司股价下跌3.1%，此前一架波音飞机在印度坠毁，造成290人死亡。

The Ibovespa index edged down 0.2% to close near 137,500 on Friday, pressured by escalating Israel-Iran tensions that dampened investor sentiment. Global markets retreated after Iran retaliated against Israel’s strikes on its nuclear and missile facilities, stoking fears of a wider conflict and driving demand for safe-haven assets. Investors also remained cautious ahead of updates on a potential US-China tariff truce. Domestically, focus shifted to the financial transactions tax, as House Speaker Hugo Motta signaled plans to push for a decree suspending the government’s proposed rate hike. On the corporate front, surging oil prices—up 7% amid Middle East unrest—boosted Petrobras shares by 2.5%. Meanwhile, risk-sensitive stocks declined, with Vale down 1.1%, Magazine Luiza falling 6.6%, and Bradesco slipping 0.7%. Embraer dropped 3.1% following a deadly Boeing plane crash in India that claimed 290 lives.

周五早盘，Ibovespa指数下跌约0.4%，在避险情绪高涨的情况下，该指数难以保持在137000点以上。全球市场对以色列袭击伊朗核设施和导弹设施的消息做出了反应，引发了人们对更广泛冲突的担忧，并推动了避险资金流动。海外投资者正等待美中关税休战的更多细节，越来越谨慎。在国内，重点仍然是金融交易税，因为众议院议长雨果·莫塔表示计划推动一项法令，暂停政府的加息提议。在企业方面，中东局势升级后，石油价格上涨10%，使巴西国家石油公司股价上涨3%，而淡水河谷（-1.3%）、路易莎杂志（-4.4%）和布雷德斯科（-1.6%）等风险敏感型股票下跌。巴西航空工业公司股价下跌0.8%，此前一架波音飞机在印度坠毁，造成290人死亡。

The Ibovespa index lost about 0.4% in early trading on Friday, struggling to hold above 137,000 amid surging risk aversion. Global markets reacted to news that Israel struck Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities, stoking fears of a broader conflict and driving safe-haven flows. Investors abroad await more details on the US-China tariff truce, increasing cautiousness. Domestically, focus remains on the finantial transactions tax, as House Speaker Hugo Motta signaled plans to push for a decree to suspend the government’s rate hike proposal. On the corporate front, oil jumped 10% following escalations in the Middle East, boosting Petrobras shares by 3%, while risk-sensitive stocks like Vale (-1.3%), Magazine Luiza (-4.4%), and Bradesco (-1.6%) dropped. Embraer fell 0.8% after a Boeing plane crash in India killed 290 people.

周四，Ibovespa指数上涨0.5%，收于137800点，延续了连续第三个交易日的涨势，这得益于更明确的财政政策、更温和的通胀和出口前景的改善。财政部长费尔南多·哈达德（Fernando Haddad）重新调整IOF增税的协议缓解了银行和零售商的压力，而6月份的IPCA同比放缓至5.32%，巩固了对Copom将利率维持在14.75%的预期，并支持了与消费者挂钩的股票。在国外，中美在伦敦达成协议，恢复上个月的关税休战并解除稀土限制，这提高了对巴西国家石油公司（2.5%）和淡水河谷的需求预测，并因全球订单增加的希望而将巴西航空工业公司的需求提高了3.2%。与此同时，新的贸易不确定性和中东紧张局势使波动性上升，支撑了大宗商品和国防名称的上涨。

The Ibovespa rose 0.5% to close at 137,800 on Thursday, extending gains for the third straight session driven by clearer fiscal policy, softer inflation and improved export prospects. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad’s deal to recalibrate the IOF tax hike eased pressure on banks and retailers, while June’s IPCA slowed to 5.32% year-on-year, cementing expectations that Copom will hold rates at 14.75% and supporting consumer-linked stocks. Abroad, a US–China agreement in London to revive last month’s tariff truce and lift rare-earth curbs boosted demand forecasts for Petrobras (2.5%) and Vale, and lifted Embraer by 3.2% on hopes of stronger global orders. Meanwhile, renewed trade uncertainties and Middle East tensions kept volatility elevated, underpinning gains in commodity and defense names.

巴西工业企业家信心指数（ICEI）从5月份的48.9降至2025年6月的48.6，延续了上半年的悲观趋势。下降的原因是预期恶化，特别是对巴西经济的预期。6月份，预期指数从51.3降至50.9，反映出不确定性增加。这一下降主要是由于对国民经济的悲观情绪日益加剧，巴西经济预期指数下降0.8点至41.7。与此同时，商业预期指数微跌0.3点，至55.5，但仍处于乐观区间。6月份的当前状况指数为44.1，与5月份的44相比几乎没有变化。当前经济状况（37.4比37.3）和商业状况（47.5比47.3）的分项指数也基本保持稳定，但较为悲观。

Brazil's Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ICEI) fell to 48.6 in June 2025 from 48.9 in May, extending a pessimistic trend seen throughout the first half of the year. The decline was driven by worsening expectations, particularly regarding the Brazilian economy. The Expectations Index slipped to 50.9 in June from 51.3, reflecting increased uncertainty. The drop was largely due to growing pessimism about the national economy, with the Brazilian Economy Expectations Index falling 0.8 points to 41.7. Meanwhile, the Business Expectations Index edged down 0.3 points to 55.5 but remained in optimistic territory. The Current Conditions Index stood at 44.1 in June, virtually unchanged from May (44). The sub-index for current conditions of the economy (37.4 vs 37.3) and businesses (47.5 vs 47.3) also remained mostly stable but pessimistic.