巴西2年期国债 (Brazil2Y) 加自选

7月，巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率跌破5.5，跌至一个月低点。此前，特朗普总统在8月1日对巴西出口征收50%的高额关税后，对加拿大商品征收35%的关税，并威胁要征收15-20%的广泛关税，这引发了人们对持续贸易争端的担忧，这场争端将资本转移到美元资产上，并给巴西第二大贸易伙伴的外汇流入前景蒙上了阴影。在国内，粘性通货膨胀——6月份同比增长5.35%，远高于3%的目标——将基准利率固定在15%的限制性水平，而Copom则表示“非常长时间”的暂停，而不是即将削减，这抑制了货币救济的前景。然而，巴西的政策基本面提供了一定程度的支持，其稳健的实际收益率是世界上最高的，支撑了套利交易的流动，而财政部上调的2025年GDP预测为2.5%，表明经济保持了抵御这些外部逆风的弹性。

The Brazilian real weakened past 5.5 per USD in July, reaching a one-month low as President Trump’s latest trade offensives of a 35% tariff on Canadian goods and the threat of broad-based 15–20% duties, right after a steep 50% levy on Brazilian exports effective August 1st, stoked fears of a sustained trade dispute that has diverted capital into dollar assets and clouded prospects for foreign-exchange inflows from Brazil’s second-largest trading partner. At home, sticky inflation—5.35% year-on-year in June, far above the 3% target—has anchored the Selic rate at a restrictive 15%, with Copom signaling a “very prolonged” pause rather than imminent cuts, dampening prospects for monetary relief. Yet Brazil’s policy fundamentals have offered a degree of support with sturdy real yields, among the world’s highest, have underpinned carry-trade flows, while the Treasury’s upgraded 2025 GDP forecast of 2.5% suggest that the economy retains the resilience to withstand these external headwinds.

巴西的工业企业家信心指数（ICEI）从6月份的48.6降至2025年7月的47.3，反映出自1月份以来持续存在的信心缺失加剧。这是自2020年6月以来的最低读数，当时经济仍受新冠肺炎疫情的影响。所有组成部分都出现了广泛的下降。当前状况指数下跌1.7点，至42.4，因为工业领袖对巴西经济及其企业的看法比六个月前更为负面。与6月份相比，这种看法更加恶化，变得更加普遍。预期指数下跌1.2点至49.7，跌破50点的门槛，标志着自2023年1月以来首次从乐观转向悲观。悲观情绪主要针对更广泛的经济，该分项指数为40.5。然而，对个体企业的情绪仍然更为积极，该组成部分保持在54.3。

Brazil’s Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ICEI) fell to 47.3 in July 2025, down from 48.6 in June, reflecting a deepening lack of confidence that has persisted since January. It is the lowest reading since June 2020, when the economy was still reeling from the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline was broad-based across all components. The Current Conditions Index dropped 1.7 points to 42.4, as industrial leaders viewed the Brazilian economy and their businesses more negatively than six months ago. This perception worsened and became more widespread compared to June. The Expectations Index fell 1.2 points to 49.7, crossing below the 50-point threshold and signaling a shift from optimism to pessimism for the first time since January 2023. The pessimism is mainly directed at the broader economy, with that sub-index at 40.5. However, sentiment toward individual businesses remains more positive, with that component holding at 54.3.

Ibovespa指数下跌0.4%，收于137000点以下，因美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布对加拿大进口商品征收35%的关税，加剧了贸易战，投资者情绪恶化。特朗普还暗示，美国的基准关税（目前为10%）可能会升至15%或20%，在贸易进展的希望中引发负面的市场反应。在巴西，巴西地理统计局报告称，5月份服务业活动增长了0.1%，低于预期。此外，7月份的《宏观财政公报》将2025年GDP增长率从2.4%提高到2.5%，但将主要赤字预测保持在721亿雷亚尔。在企业方面，美国敞口股票仍面临压力，因为市场评估了特朗普总统实施50%关税的影响。巴西航空工业公司因其广泛的美国航空公司客户名单而下跌3.9%。此外，大宗商品出口商Gerdau（-2.6%）、CSN（-0.4%）、巴西国家石油公司（-0.2%）和淡水河谷（-0.2%。

The Ibovespa fell 0.4% to trade below 137,000, as investor sentiment soured after US President Donald Trump escalated his trade war by announcing a 35% tariff on Canadian imports. Trump also hinted the US baseline tariff—currently 10%—could rise to 15% or 20%, triggering negative market reactions amid hopes for trade progress. In Brazil, the IBGE reported that services activity grew 0.1% in May, below forecasts. Also, the July Macrofiscal Bulletin raised 2025 GDP growth to 2.5% from 2.4%, but kept the primary deficit forecast at R$72.1 billion. On the corporate front, US-exposed stocks remained under pressure as markets assessed the impact of 50% tariffs by the US should President Trump follow through with them. Embraer lost 3.9% due to its extensive US airline client list. Also, losses were extended commodity exporters Gerdau (-2.6%), CSN (-0.4%), Petrobras (-0.2%), and Vale (-0.2%).

周四，Ibovespa指数下跌0.5%，收于136743点，因为特朗普总统宣布对巴西出口产品征收50%的关税，这与针对前总统博索纳罗的法律行动有关，这改变了行业领导层，并扰乱了依赖贸易的企业。金融股首当其冲，巴西银行（-0.8%）、桑坦德银行（-1.7%）、伊塔乌萨银行（-1.5%）和布拉德斯科银行（-1.9%），此前分析师在美国贸易壁垒加剧的情况下下调了评级。巴西航空工业公司股价下跌3.4%，因其60%的美国收入敞口，突显出其极易受到航空航天出口征税的影响。矿商和钢铁制造商提供了一些抵消，淡水河谷上涨2.3%，CSN飙升5%，Gerdau上涨0.5%，反映了全球大宗商品需求的持续性，但随着原油价格下跌，巴西国家石油公司等能源股受到抑制。与此同时，6月份的IPCA通胀减速基本上没有被注意到，贸易战的余波成为股市的主要拖累因素。

The Ibovespa dropped 0.5% to close at 136,743 on Thursday, as President Trump’s announcement of 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports—tied to legal actions against former President Bolsonaro—reshuffled sectoral leadership and rattled trade-reliant names. Financials bore the brunt with Banco Do Brasil (-0.8%), Banco Santander (-1.7%), Itaúsa (-1.5%),and Bradesco (-1.9%) after analysts pared back ratings amid heightened US trade barriers. Embraer tumbled 3.4% given its 60% US revenue exposure, highlighting acute vulnerability to slapping of levies on aerospace exports. Miners and steelmakers provided some offset, Vale gained 2.3%, CSN surged 5% and Gerdau added 0.5%—reflecting enduring global commodity demand, but energy stocks like Petrobras were held back as crude prices dropped. Meanwhile, June’s IPCA inflation deceleration went largely unnoticed, leaving trade-war fallout as the dominant drag on equities.