巴西3个月期国债 (Brazil3M) 加自选

周二，随着投资者等待巴西的关键利率决定，Ibovespa指数小幅超过133000点。在6月份会议的纪要中，央行的Copom表示，基准利率将在较长一段时间内保持在每年15%的水平，理由是持续的核心通胀和强劲的需求压力证明了长期紧缩立场的合理性。随着8月1日最后期限的临近，市场也在密切关注与美国的贸易争端。唐纳德·特朗普总统威胁要对巴西商品征收50%的关税，但谈判没有进展。淡水河谷股价下跌近1%，因中国疲软的刺激信号损害了淡水河谷最大消费者购买铁矿石的前景。与此同时，巴西国家石油公司（+0.3%）、Bradesco（+1.4%）、CSN（+0.2%）和Gerdau（+0.1%）上涨。

The Ibovespa edged above the flatline to over 133,000 on Tuesday as investors await Brazil’s key interest rate decision. In minutes from its June meeting, the central bank’s Copom signaled the Selic would remain at 15% annually for an extended period, citing persistent core inflation and strong demand pressures that justify a prolonged contractionary stance. Markets are also closely monitoring the trade dispute with the US, with the August 1st deadline approaching. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, but no progress in negotiations has been reported. Vale dropped nearly 1% as muted stimulus signals from China hurt the outlook on iron ore buying by Vale's top consumer. Meanwhile Petrobras (+0.3%), Bradesco (+1.4%), CSN (+0.2%), and Gerdau (+0.1%) advanced.

周二，Ibovespa指数上涨0.5%，收于132726点，因贸易战焦虑缓解、大宗商品价格走强和企业催化剂的共同作用提升了巴西的基准。美中关税停战谈判和美欧框架协议的重启限制了对巴西出口征收更广泛关税的威胁，为农业综合企业和工业企业提供了缓解，而布伦特原油因对俄罗斯-乌克兰新制裁的担忧而跃升至72美元以上，支撑了石油和天然气生产商。与此同时，巴西航空工业公司股价上涨2.5%，此前政府表示将提供应急支持，以保护其喷气式飞机出口免受即将到来的50%美国关税的影响。在宏观方面，7月份商业信心数据强于预期，国际货币基金组织表示巴西的财政轨迹仍然可控，这增强了人们对央行在本周的Copom会议上保持稳定Selic的希望，即在通胀控制与增长支持之间取得平衡。

The Ibovespa climbed 0.5% to close at 132,726 on Tuesday as a combination of easing trade-war anxieties, firming commodity prices and corporate catalysts lifted Brazil’s benchmark. Renewed US–China tariff-truce talks and the US–EU framework agreement capped the threat of broader duties on Brazilian exports, providing relief to agribusiness and industrial names, while Brent crude’s jump above $72 on fresh Russia–Ukraine sanctions fears underpinned oil-and-gas producers. At the same time, Embraer rallied 2.5% after the government signaled contingency support to shield its jet exports from the looming 50% US tariff. On the macro front, stronger-than-expected July business-confidence readings and IMF comments that Brazil’s fiscal trajectory remains manageable reinforced hopes that the Central Bank will maintain a steady Selic at this week’s Copom meeting—balancing inflation control with growth support.

巴西雷亚尔兑美元汇率约为5.58，徘徊在6月初的低点附近，因为美国-欧盟和美日贸易协定限制了关税升级的担忧，并支撑了对美国经济更强劲和美联储坚定的预期，导致美元大幅反弹，压倒了当地货币流动。在国内，对特朗普总统即将于8月1日对巴西出口产品征收50%关税的日益焦虑促使出口商对冲应收账款并提前汇回美元。与此同时，巴西央行被困在7月中旬仍高达5.3%的IPCA-15通胀率和15%的Selic利率之间，Selic利率似乎将保持不变，这限制了其通过降息或激进的鸽派信号来捍卫经济的能力。尽管Copom的高实际收益率继续吸引套利交易流入，巴西创纪录的农产品出货量提供了间歇性的外汇支持，但到目前为止，这些力量只缓和了而不是扭转了雷亚尔的下滑。

The Brazilian real traded around 5.58 per USD, hovering near early-June lows, as an outsized rebound in the greenback, fueled by US–EU and US–Japan trade pacts capping tariff escalation fears and underpinning expectations of a stronger US economy and a steadfast Fed, has overwhelmed local currency flows. Domestically, mounting anxiety over President Trump’s imminent 50% tariff on Brazilian exports, slated for August 1st, has prompted exporters to hedge receivables and repatriate dollars early. At the same time, Brazil’s central bank is trapped between a still-elevated 5.3% mid-July IPCA-15 inflation print, and a 15% Selic rate that looks set to remain unchanged, limiting its ability to defend the economy via rate cuts or aggressive dovish signaling. Although Copom’s high real yields continue to attract carry-trade inflows and Brazil’s record agricultural shipments offer intermittent FX support, these forces have so far only tempered, rather than reversed, the real’s slide.

周二，Ibovespa指数上涨0.3%，收于132500点，企业巨头小幅上涨，而在8月1日对巴西商品征收50%关税的最后期限之前，巴西在与美国的贸易谈判中的立场仍受到关注。财政部长Fernando Haddad表示，副总统Geraldo Alckmin与美国商务部长Howard Lutnick举行了第三次也是延长的电话会议，并补充说，巴西有信心成功获得有利条件。卢特尼克表示，特朗普总统将在8月1日前决定这些交易。与此同时，国际货币基金组织上调了巴西2026年的增长预测，但预计未来仍将略有减速。淡水河谷（+0.6%）和巴西国家石油公司（+0.2%）上涨，其他主要银行巴西银行（-0.2%）和ItaúUnibanco（+0.3%）也上涨。钢铁制造商CSN（+0.4%）和Gerdau（-0.7%）喜忧参半，零售商Americanas（+3.1%）和Magazine Luiza（-1.1%）也是如此。

The Ibovespa rose 0.3% toward 132,500 on Tuesday amid modest gains for corporate giants, while attention remains on Brazil’s position in trade talks with the US ahead of the August 1st deadline for potential 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods deadline for potential 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said Vice President Geraldo Alckmin held a third and extended call with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, adding that Brazil is confident it will succeed in securing favorable terms. Lutnick said President Trump will decide on the deals by August 1st. Meanwhile, the IMF raised Brazil’s growth forecast for 2026 but still sees a slight deceleration ahead. Vale (+0.6%) and Petrobras (+0.2%) advanced, along with major banks Banco do Brasil (+0.2%) and Itaú Unibanco (+0.3%). Steelmakers CSN (+0.4%) and Gerdau (-0.7%) were mixed, as were retailers Americanas (+3.1%) and Magazine Luiza (-1.1%).