巴西6个月期国债 (Brazil6M) 加自选

周三，Ibovespa指数上涨0.4%，收于144500点以上，受美联储降息预期和主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔今天晚些时候评论的支撑。市场普遍预计将降息25个基点，使联邦基金利率降至4.00-4.25%。从历史上看，巴西股市在美国降息周期后表现强劲，国内板块在首次降息前领先，大宗商品随后反弹。在当地，预计Copom将把Selic保持在15%。在企业方面，GPA在宣布5亿雷亚尔私人融资计划后上涨4.6%，相当于其市值的25%左右。银行股上涨（Itaú上涨0.7%，Bradesco上涨0.7%），零售商股上涨（Magazine Luiza上涨4.2%，Casas Bahia上涨2.5%），而巴西国家石油公司上涨0.2%，淡水河谷（-0.3%）和CSN（-0.4%）下跌。

The Ibovespa rose 0.4% to trade above 144,500 on Wednesday, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut and comments from Chair Jerome Powell later today. Markets widely anticipate a 25 bps cut, bringing the federal funds rate to 4.00–4.25%. Historically, Brazilian equities perform strongly after US cutting cycles, with domestic sectors leading before the first move and commodities rebounding afterward. Locally, the Copom is expected to hold the Selic at 15%. On the corporate front, GPA jumped 4.6% after announcing plans for a R$500 million private capital raise, equal to about 25% of its market value. Banks gained (Itaú +0.7%, Bradesco +0.7%), as did retailers (Magazine Luiza +4.2%, Casas Bahia +2.5%), while Petrobras added 0.2% and Vale (-0.3%) and CSN (-0.4%) slipped.

周二，Ibovespa指数上涨0.4%，收于144062点，延续了创纪录的涨幅，因为央行的Copom开始了政策会议，普遍预计周三的Selic指数将保持在15%。在数据方面，截至7月的季度，巴西的失业率降至5.6%，为2012年以来的最低水平，与市场预测的底部一致，这加强了采取谨慎政策立场的必要性。在美国，市场预计美联储周三的决定将降息25个基点，这支撑了美元走软，并为雷亚尔增加了外部支持。在股票中，BRF（5.1%）、Marfrig（6.0%）和Lojas Renner（4.9%）领涨，而石油的上涨和未来利率的下降有助于维持市场的上涨。

The Ibovespa rose 0.4% to close at 144,062 on Tuesday, extending record gains as the central bank’s Copom opened its policy meeting, the Selic is widely expected to be held at 15% on Wednesday. On the data front, Brazil’s unemployment rate fell to 5.6% in the quarter through July, the lowest in the series since 2012 and in line with the bottom of market forecasts, reinforcing the case for a cautious policy stance. In the US, markets are pricing a 25bp Fed cut at Wednesday’s decision, which underpinned a softer dollar and added external support to the real. Among stocks, BRF (5.1%), Marfrig (6.0%) and Lojas Renner (4.9%) led gains, while oil’s rise and lower future interest rates helped sustain the market’s advance.

9月份，巴西10年期政府债券收益率跌至13.7%以下，触及两个月低点，因为活动降温、通胀疲软以及全球长期收益率下降推低了预期的未来实际利率。巴西IBC Br活动指数在2025年7月环比下跌0.5%，这是连续第三次下跌，弱于-0.2%的共识，表明增长势头正在减弱。与此同时，美国国债收益率跌至约五个月低点，因为市场对美联储本周25个基点的举措进行了定价，并在今年晚些时候进一步放松，将较低的全球长期利率基准传递给巴西。尽管劳动力市场异常紧张，但长期收益率仍面临下行压力，7月份移动季度的失业率约为5.6%，这缓和了央行可能转向削减的速度，并支持谨慎的政策立场。人们普遍预计，央行将在即将召开的会议上将政策维持在目前的限制水平。

The 10-year Brazilian government bond yield fell below 13.7% in September, touching two-month lows as cooling activity and softer inflation prints compounded with declines in global long yields pushed down expected future real rates. Brazil’s IBC-Br activity index fell 0.5% month-on-month in July 2025, the third consecutive decline and weaker than the -0.2% consensus, signalling growth is losing momentum. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields slid to roughly five-month lows as markets priced a 25bp Fed move this week and further easing later in the year, transmitting lower global long-rate benchmarks to Brazil. That downward pressure on long yields comes despite an unusually tight labour market, unemployment was about 5.6% in the July moving quarter, which tempers how quickly the central bank might pivot to cuts and supports a cautious policy stance. The central bank is widely expected to hold policy at its current restrictive level at the upcoming meeting.

巴西财政部长预计未来几个月将降息。巴西财政部长费尔南多·哈达德周二表示，他预计未来几个月将开始降息，理由是拉丁美洲最大经济体的外汇前景更加有利。

Brazil's finance minister sees rate cuts in coming months.Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said on Tuesday he expects interest rate cuts to begin in the coming months, citing a more favorable foreign exchange outlook in Latin America's largest economy.