巴西6个月期国债 (Brazil6M) 加自选

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布的对大多数巴西商品征收50%的关税将于8月6日生效，比最初宣布的8月1日晚。此举与巴西对前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗的起诉有关，博尔索纳罗因涉嫌在2022年大选失利后策划政变而受审。然而，特朗普通过豁免民用飞机、能源、橙汁、生铁、贵金属、木浆和化肥等关键行业来减轻影响。在一项行政命令和随附的白宫情况说明书中，政府引用了涉及特朗普亲密盟友博索纳罗的正在进行的法律诉讼作为做出这一决定的原因。巴西财政部长罗杰里奥·塞隆表示：“我们没有面临最坏的情况。”他将结果描述为比预期“更温和”。

The 50% tariff on most Brazilian goods announced by U.S. President Donald Trump will take effect on August 6, delayed from the initially stated August 1 date. The move is tied to Brazil’s prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is on trial for allegedly plotting a coup following his 2022 election loss. However, Trump softened the impact by exempting key sectors, including civil aircraft, energy, orange juice, pig iron, precious metals, wood pulp, and fertilizers. In an executive order and accompanying White House factsheet, the administration cited the ongoing legal proceedings involving Bolsonaro, a close Trump ally, as the reason behind the decision. "We're not facing the worst-case scenario," said Brazilian Treasury Secretary Rogerio Ceron, describing the outcome as “more benign” than expected.

高盛估计，美国即将对巴西征收30.8%的有效关税。。高盛计算出，美国即将对包括豁免在内的所有巴西进口商品征收30.8%的有效关税。高盛表示，巴西关税率计算包括对额外部门关税的预期。

Goldman Sachs calculates upcoming U.S. effective tariff rate on Brazil at 30.8%..Goldman Sachs calculates the upcoming U.S. effective tariff rate on all Brazilian imports, including exemptions, at 30.8%. Goldman says the Brazil tariff rate calculation includes expectations for additional sectoral tariffs.

巴西央行在7月份将其Selic利率稳定在15%，在持续的通货膨胀和全球不确定性中保持谨慎立场。这一决定反映了Copom对锚定通胀预期的承诺，通胀预期在2025年和2026年仍高于目标，分别为5.1%和4.4%。政策制定者指出，在美国财政和贸易政策的推动下，全球金融状况波动加剧，地缘政治紧张局势加剧。在国内，经济活动有所放缓，尽管劳动力市场仍然强劲，总体通胀和核心通胀都居高不下。此外，Copom强调，需要长期实施大幅收缩政策，以引导通胀达到3%的目标。尽管委员会表示将暂停紧缩周期以评估滞后效应，但它也重申，如果通胀压力持续存在，它准备恢复加息。

The Central Bank of Brazil left its Selic rate steady at 15% in July, maintaining a cautious stance amid persistent inflation and global uncertainty. The decision reflects the Copom commitment to anchoring inflation expectations, which remain above target for 2025 and 2026, at 5.1% and 4.4% respectively. Policymakers cited increased volatility in global financial conditions driven by US fiscal and trade policies, as well as heightened geopolitical tensions. Domestically, economic activity has moderated, though the labor market remains strong, and both headline and core inflation have stayed elevated. Also, Copom emphasized the need for a prolonged period of significantly contractionary policy to steer inflation toward its 3% target. While the committee signaled a pause in its tightening cycle to assess lagging effects, it also reiterated its readiness to resume hikes if inflation pressures persist.

周三，Ibovespa指数上涨1%，收于133990点，受华盛顿对巴西出口征收50%关税的最后一刻豁免的提振。在一项法令中，民用飞机、纸浆、橙汁和能源产品得以幸免，该法令还有争议地引用了前总统博索纳罗在最高法院的审判是“出于政治动机”。巴西利亚谴责此举是对其司法事务的前所未有的外国入侵，特别是在特朗普总统根据《马格尼茨基法案》制裁最高法院部长亚历山大·德·莫雷斯之后。通过保留这些重要的出口收入，美国的命令缓解了人们对全面贸易封锁的担忧，使巴西航空工业公司股价上涨2.5%，巴西雷亚尔上涨1.8%。与此同时，美联储决定维持利率并分散投票，这增强了人们对美国政策在年底前保持不变的预期，而巴西央行表示，尽管通货膨胀有所降温，但其15%的Selic利率不会立即改变。

The Ibovespa climbed 1% to close at 133,990 on Wednesday, buoyed by relief over last-minute carve-outs from Washington’s 50% tariff on Brazilian exports. Civil aircraft, pulp, orange juice and energy products were spared, in a decree that also controversially cites former President Bolsonaro’s Supreme Court trial as “politically motivated.” Brasília denounced the move as an unprecedented foreign intrusion into its judicial affairs, especially after President Trump sanctioned Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes under the Magnitsky Act. By preserving these vital export revenues, the US order allayed fears of a full-blown trade blockade and sent Embraer shares up 2.5% and BRF 1.8% higher. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates and split its vote reinforced expectations of unchanged US policy through the year-end, while Brazil’s own central bank signaled no imminent change to its 15% Selic rate despite cooling inflation.