加拿大5年期国债 (Canada5Y) 加自选

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数上涨0.2%，收于28565点的新纪录，8月收盘上涨约4.8%，大银行盈利和矿商反弹共同推动该指数走高。包括加拿大皇家银行和道明银行在内的主要贷款机构惊讶地发现，贷款损失准备金大幅降低，资本市场和费用收入强劲，这收紧了信贷息差，释放了用于回购和股息的资本，并将资金回流到指数权重集中的金融领域。加拿大统计局报告称，由于出口和商业投资疲软，第二季度实际国内生产总值环比收缩0.4%，这一数据推动市场对加拿大银行早些时候放松政策和压缩利率敏感股票的贴现率进行定价。与此同时，随着黄金价格飙升至新高，大型矿业公司的表现优于其他公司。Agnico Eagle、Wheaton Precious、Barrick Mining和Franco Nevada上涨1.2%至3.4%。

The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.2% to close at a fresh record of 28,565 on Friday and finished August up about 4.8% as a clean finish to big bank earnings and a miners rally combined to push the index higher. Major lenders including RBC and TD surprised with materially lower loan loss provisions and stronger capital markets and fee income which tightened credit spreads, freed capital for buybacks and dividends, and drew flows back into financials where index weight is concentrated. That corporate tailwind met a weaker macro backdrop after Statistics Canada reported Q2 real GDP contracted 0.4% quarter on quarter driven by export and business investment weakness, a print that pushed markets to price earlier Bank of Canada easing and compressed discount rates for rate sensitive equities. At the same time large mining names outperformed as gold raced to new highs. Agnico Eagle, Wheaton Precious, Barrick Mining, and Franco-Nevada added between 1.2% and 3.4%.

加拿大政府在2025年6月公布了36.3亿加元的预算盈余，而2024年6月的盈余为9.39亿加元。这一转变在很大程度上反映了收入增加了40亿加元（9.8%），主要是由于企业所得税和进口关税的增加，而污染定价收益下降了13亿加元。除净精算损失外，项目支出增加了20亿加元（5.9%），这是由于大多数主要支出类别的增加。公共债务费用下降了4亿加元（9.6%），因为国库券利率下降和实际回报债券CPI调整幅度较小，抵消了可销售债券存量增加带来的平均有效利率上升；2025-26年4月至6月期间，联邦预算赤字为33亿加元，而2024-25年同期为29亿加元。

Canada’s government posted a budgetary surplus of CAD 3.63 billion in June 2025, compared with a surplus of CAD 0.939 billion in June 2024. This shift largely reflected a CAD 4.0 billion (9.8%) increase in revenues, largely driven by higher corporate income tax and customs import duties, while pollution pricing proceeds fell by CAD 1.3 billion. Program expenses, excluding net actuarial losses, rose by CAD 2.0 billion (5.9%), driven by increases across most major spending categories. Public debt charges fell by CAD 0.4 billion (9.6%) as lower interest rates on treasury bills and smaller CPI adjustments on Real Return Bonds more than offset higher average effective rates on an increased stock of marketable bonds; for the April–June 2025–26 period, the federal budgetary deficit stood at CAD 3.3 billion, compared to CAD 2.9 billion in the same period of 2024–25.

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数上涨0.2%，收于28450点以上，创下新高，周涨幅约为0.5%，因为大银行盈利的强劲收市大大降低了短期信贷风险，并使资金回流到对利率敏感的公司。包括加拿大皇家银行和道明银行在内的顶级银行对较低的准备金、好于预期的资本市场和费用收入感到惊讶，这收紧了银行信贷息差，释放了股息和回购的资本，并为反弹增加了指数权重。加拿大统计局显示，第二季度实际国内生产总值季度收缩0.4%，贸易和投资导致的经济放缓推动市场对加拿大银行早些时候的宽松政策进行定价，从而压缩了依赖较低融资成本的股票的贴现率。金融和能源股领涨，而科技和健康股则限制了这一走势，使市场能够在盘中创下新高，但在长周末保持谨慎。

The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.2% to above the 28,450 mark on Friday, pushing toward fresh records and a weekly advance of around 0.5% as a strong finish to big-bank earnings materially reduced near-term credit risk and tilted flows back into rate-sensitive names. Top lenders including RBC and TD surprised with lower provisions and better-than-expected capital-markets and fee income, which tightened bank credit spreads, freed up capital for dividends and buybacks, and added index heft to the rally. That corporate impulse met a weaker macro backdrop after Statistics Canada showed Q2 real GDP contracted 0.4% quarterly, a trade and investment-led slowdown that pushed markets to price earlier Bank of Canada easing and therefore compressed discount rates for equities reliant on lower financing costs. Financials and energy led gains while tech and health capped the move, leaving the market able to make new highs intraday but cautious into the long weekend.

美国核心个人消费支出如预期般增长，而加拿大国内生产总值再次滞后。市场刚刚收到备受期待的核心个人消费支出报告，与预期完全一致——核心支出环比为0.3%，而预期为0.3%。

US Core PCE Came as Expected, While Canadian GDP Lags Again.Markets just received the report for the much-anticipated Core PCE, which came exactly as expected – The month-over-month Core release came at 0.3 % vs 0.3% expectations.