加拿大6个月期国债 (Canada6M) 加自选

通胀观察——加拿大消费者价格在5月意外下跌后将在6月上涨。我们预计，由于周二加拿大和美国6月通胀数据中的关税，价格大幅上涨可能为时过早。

Inflation Watch—Canada's Consumer Prices to Tick Higher in June after May's Downside Surprise.We expect it is likely too early to see a significant increase in prices due to tariffs in Canadian and U.S. inflation data for June on Tuesday.

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数下跌0.2%，收于27023点，在特朗普总统出人意料地颁布对所有非美墨加加拿大进口商品征收35%关税的法令后，该指数从历史高点回落，令金融和依赖出口的行业都感到不安。加拿大金融巨头加拿大皇家银行、布鲁克菲尔德银行、蒙特利尔银行和丰业银行领跌，跌幅为0.6%至1.1%，而出口敏感的铁路巨头加拿大太平洋铁路公司和加拿大国民铁路公司分别下跌0.9%和0.7%，因投资者准备应对跨境资金流动受阻。6月份强劲的劳工报告增加了83100个工作岗位，将失业率降至6.9%，5月份建筑许可证激增12%，达到131亿加元，这突显了国内的韧性，削弱了人们对7月30日加拿大银行降息的预期。多伦多证券交易所公布了温和的周跌幅。

The S&P/TSX Composite slipped 0.2% to close at 27,023 on Friday, reversing from record highs after President Trump’s surprise decree of a 35% tariff on all non-USMCA Canadian imports unsettled both financials and export-reliant sectors. Canada’s financial giants RBC, Brookfield, BMO and Scotiabank, led the sell-off with losses of 0.6% to 1.1%, while export-sensitive rail giants Canadian Pacific and Canadian National tumbled 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively as investors braced for choked cross-border flows. Domestic resilience—underscored by June’s robust labour report, which added 83,100 jobs and drove unemployment down to 6.9%, and a 12% leap in May building permits to C$13.1 billion—dented expectations for a July 30th Bank of Canada rate cut. The TSX posted modest weekly declines.

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数下跌约0.4%，至27000点以下，在特朗普总统出人意料地宣布对所有非美国-加拿大进口商品征收35%的关税后，该指数从历史高点回落，该关税将于8月1日生效，这给金融和依赖出口的行业带来了动荡。加拿大的主要银行首当其冲，加拿大皇家银行、道明银行、蒙特利尔银行和丰业银行各投降0.6%至1%，而出口敏感的加拿大太平洋铁路和加拿大国民铁路各下跌1%以上。即使是6月份的劳工报告所强调的强劲国内背景，其中增加了83100个职位，失业率降至6.9%，抑制了市场对7月30日加拿大银行降息的押注，也不足以抵消贸易战对股票风险偏好的不利影响。本周，多伦多证交所预计将出现小幅下跌。

The S&P/TSX Composite eased about 0.4% to below the 27,000 threshold on Friday, retreating from record highs after President Trump’s unexpected announcement of a 35% tariff on all non-USMCA Canadian imports, effective August 1st, reintroduced turmoil into both financials and export-reliant sectors. Canada’s major banks bore the brunt of the selling, with RBC, TD, BMO and Scotiabank each surrendering between 0.6% and 1%, while export-sensitive railroads Canadian Pacific and Canadian National each slid over 1%. Even a robust domestic backdrop, underscored by June’s labour report, in which 83,100 positions were added and the unemployment rate fell to 6.9%, dampening market bets on a July 30th Bank of Canada rate cut, proved insufficient to offset the trade-war headwinds weighing on equity risk appetite. For the week the Toronto exchange was poised for slight losses.

在特朗普总统本周晚些时候宣布对所有非USMCA加拿大商品征收35%的关税后，加元兑美元汇率跌至1.37，该关税将于8月1日生效，这再次引发了人们对加拿大出口准入的担忧，并放大了贸易政策的不确定性。通过援引渥太华的报复性征税以及他所说的缺乏“合作精神”，特朗普的升级给加拿大施加了新的压力，要求其在最后期限前达成新的协议，增加了对加拿大钢铁和铝的现有50%的关税，加拿大仍然是美国的最大供应商。然而，加拿大的国内经济提供了一个对比：6月份的劳工报告令人震惊，创造了83100个工作岗位，失业率降至6.9%，这一数据降低了加拿大银行在7月30日会议上降息的市场可能性，并为加元提供了一股暗流，尽管贸易战不利。

The Canadian dollar weakened toward 1.37 per US dollar after President Trump’s late-week proclamation of a 35% tariff on all non-USMCA Canadian goods, set to take effect August 1st, reignited concerns over Canada’s export access and magnified trade-policy uncertainty. By invoking Ottawa’s retaliatory levies and what he characterized as a lack of “cooperative spirit,” Trump’s escalation piles fresh pressure on Canada to clinch a new agreement before the deadline, adding to the existing 50% duties on Canadian steel and aluminium—where Canada remains America’s top supplier. However, Canada’s domestic economy offered a counterpoint: June’s labour report surprised decisively, with 83,100 jobs created and the unemployment rate dipping to 6.9%, a showing that has tempered market odds for a Bank of Canada rate cut at its July 30th meeting and provided the loonie with an undercurrent of support despite the trade-war headwinds.