智利10年期国债 (Chile10Y) 加自选

2025年3月，智利工业生产同比增长4.5%，从前一个月3.6%的下降中反弹。采矿业强劲反弹（5.4%对-6.6%）推动了复苏，铜产量显著飙升（9.1%对-5.4%）也为复苏提供了支撑。制造业也实现了稳健增长（5.4%对-1.3%），而公用事业生产的下降有所放缓（-0.5%对-3.2%）。经季节性调整后，工业产出在2月份下降0.6%后，每月增长1.3%。

Industrial production in Chile rose by 4.5% year-on-year in March 2025, rebounding from a 3.6% decline in the previous month. The recovery was driven by a strong rebound in the mining sector (5.4% vs -6.6%), supported by a notable surge in copper output (9.1% vs -5.4%). Manufacturing also posted solid growth (5.4% vs -1.3%), while the decline in utilities production moderated (-0.5% vs -3.2%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial output increased by 1.3%, following a 0.6% drop in February.

2025年3月，智利零售额同比增长6.9%，高于上个月上调后的2.7%。这一增长的最大贡献者是电子产品、家居用品和技术产品（增长12.7%），其次是服装、鞋类和配饰（增长13.0%），以及杂项消费品（增长10.6%）。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，零售贸易在2月份下降0.9%后，3月份增长了0.5%。

Chile's retail sales rose by 6.9% year-on-year in March 2025, accelerating from an upwardly revised 2.7% growth in the previous month. The biggest contributors to this growth were electronics, household goods, and technology products (up 12.7%), followed by clothing, footwear, and accessories (up 13.0%), and miscellaneous consumer goods (up 10.6%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail trade rose by 0.5% in March, after a 0.9% decline in February.

智利央行在4月份的会议上一致将货币政策利率维持在5%不变，这是连续第四次保持不变。这一决定反映了全球不确定性的加剧，特别是在美国4月初宣布新的关税之后，这给经济增长和通胀预期带来了压力。全球金融市场波动加剧，美国长期利率大幅上升，股市和货币走势喜忧参半。尽管如此，智利当地的金融状况有所改善，利率下降，比索走强，股市上涨。在出口相关行业和国内需求改善的支持下，经济活动正在逐步复苏。3月份，整体通胀率为4.9%，而核心通胀率降至3.7%。央行重申其谨慎灵活的货币政策，旨在引导通胀在未来两年内达到3%的目标。

The Central Bank of Chile unanimously kept its monetary policy interest rate unchanged at 5% during its April meeting, marking the fourth consecutive hold. The decision reflects heightened global uncertainty, particularly after the US announced new tariffs in early April, which have weighed on growth and inflation expectations. Global financial markets have seen increased volatility, with long-term US interest rates rising sharply and stock markets and currencies experiencing mixed movements. Despite this, Chile’s local financial conditions have improved, with declines in interest rates, a stronger peso, and gains in the stock market. Economic activity is gradually recovering, supported by export-related sectors and improving domestic demand. In March, headline inflation stood at 4.9%, while core inflation eased to 3.7%. The Central Bank reiterated its cautious and flexible approach to monetary policy, aiming to guide inflation toward its 3% target over the next two years.

与去年同期相比，智利2025年第一季度的失业率保持不变，为8.7%，略高于市场预期的8.6%。这种稳定性反映了劳动力增长0.9%，与就业人数的增长相匹配。金融（19.5%）、住宿和餐饮服务（7.5%）以及专业活动（8.4%）的就业增长最为强劲。失业人数上升了1.3%，这是由于失业人数（1.2%）和求职人数（1.4%）的增加。在女性中，失业率保持在9.5%，因为劳动力增长（1.2%）几乎与就业增长（1.3%）相匹配。在男性中，这一比例小幅上升至8.1%（+0.1个百分点），因为劳动力增长（0.7%）超过了就业增长（0.5%）。

Chile's unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.7% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year, slightly above market expectations of 8.6%. The stability reflected a 0.9% rise in the labor force, matching the increase in the number of employed persons. Job growth was strongest in finance (19.5%), lodging and catering services (7.5%), and professional activities (8.4%). The number of unemployed rose by 1.3%, driven by increases in those laid off (1.2%) and those seeking their first job (1.4%). Among women, the unemployment rate held at 9.5%, as labor force growth (1.2%) nearly matched employment gains (1.3%). Among men, the rate rose slightly to 8.1% (+0.1 percentage point), as labor force growth (0.7%) outpaced the rise in employment (0.5%).