印度6个月期国债 (India6M) 加自选

7月下旬，印度卢比兑美元汇率进一步下跌至87.7，为自2月份触及88的历史低点以来的最低水平，原因是与美国的贸易前景恶化，印度储备银行的前景温和。美国总统特朗普表示，由于印度未与美国同行达成协议，他将从周五开始对印度征收25%的关税。特朗普还表示，由于印度与俄罗斯石油公司的持续业务和再出口，对选定行业的处罚将要高得多。此前，印度外交官表示，最终达成协议需要时间，这将削弱印度主要贸易伙伴之一的商品需求。在货币政策方面，消费者通胀率降至2.1%的六年低点，远低于市场预期，以测试印度储备银行2%通胀容忍区间的下限。因此，市场预计印度储备银行今年将继续降低其基准政策利率。

The Indian rupee slid further to 87.7 per USD in late July, the weakest since reaching the record low of 88 in February amid a worsening trade outlook with the US and dovish outlook for the RBI. US President Trump stated he would slap a 25% tariff on India to start on Friday, as the country refrained from striking a deal with their US counterparts. Trump also said penalties on selected industries would be much higher due to India's continued business and re-exports with Russian oil companies. The move followed signals from Indian diplomats stating that an eventual agreement would take time, denting demand for goods from one of India's main trading partners. On the monetary policy front, consumer inflation feel to a six-year low of 2.1%, well below market expectations, to test the lower bound of the RBI's inflation tolerance band of 2%. Consequently, markets expect the RBI to continue reducing its benchmark policy rate this year.

印度10年期G-Sec的收益率从7月21日触及的一个月低点6.3%升至6.36%，原因是与美国日益加剧的贸易紧张局势以及随之而来的卢比暴跌促使外国投资者减持。美国总统特朗普表示，由于印度代表团没有与白宫达成贸易协议，他将在8月初对印度征收高达25%的关税，高于美国其他主要贸易伙伴的平均水平。印度外交官指出，这可能需要一段时间才能与美国就条款达成一致，从而推迟了对贸易壁垒软化的预期。这些事件推动卢比跌至历史低点附近，并威胁到关键行业的需求，抵消了最近对印度预算平衡的乐观情绪。与此同时，由于6月份整体通胀率降至2.1%的六年低点，接近印度储备银行2%通胀容忍区间的下限，预计印度储备银行今年将再次降息。

The yield on the Indian 10-year G-Sec rose to 6.36% from the one-month low of 6.3% touched on July 21st as growing trade tensions with the US and the consequent plunge for the rupee drove foreign investors to trim their holdings. US President Trump stated he would imposte tariffs of up to 25% on India by the start of August, above the average for other major US trading partners as the Indian delegation refrained from making a trade deal with the White House. This was magnified by Indian diplomats noting that it may take a while to agree on terms with the US, delaying expectations of softer trade barriers. The events drove the rupee to plunge near record lows and threatened demand for key industries, countering the recent optimism on the Indian budget balance. Meanwhile, the RBI is expected to deliver another rate cut this year as headline inflation fell to a six-year low of 2.1% in June, approaching the lower end of the RBI's inflation tolerance band of 2%.

周三，印度BSE Sensex指数上涨约0.2%，收于81481.9点，连续第二天下微上涨，尽管对美联储即将做出的决定持谨慎态度，且印度与美国贸易协议延迟的不确定性挥之不去，但收益强劲，支撑了该指数。印度政府消息人士告诉路透社，在8月1日达成协议的最后期限之前，印度正在为美国对一些出口产品征收20-25%的更高关税做准备。在行业方面，工业、公用事业和电力股表现最佳，而汽车股和金融股面临抛售压力。Larsen&Toubro股价上涨超过4%，此前这家基础设施巨头报告称，在海外订单强劲增长的推动下，6月份季度综合净利润增长了29.8%。不利的一面是，塔塔汽车公司股价下跌超过3%，此前有新闻报道称，该公司计划以45亿美元收购意大利卡车制造商依维柯，这引发了人们对其资产负债表潜在压力的担忧。

India's BSE Sensex closed about 0.2% higher at 81,481.9 on Wednesday, advancing slightly for the second day, supported by strong earnings despite caution over the Fed’s upcoming decision and lingering uncertainty over a delayed India-US trade deal. India is bracing for higher US tariffs of 20–25% on some exports ahead of an August 1 deadline to seal an agreement, government sources told Reuters. On the sectoral front, industrials, utilities, and power were the top performers while auto shares and financials faced selling pressure. Larsen & Toubro jumped over 4% after the infrastructure major reported a 29.8% rise in consolidated net profit during the June quarter, driven by strong overseas order growth. On the downside, Tata Motors shed over 3% following news reports of its plans to buy Italian truck maker Iveco for $4.5 billion, which raised concerns over a potential strain to its balance sheet.

关税担忧引发卢比近三个月来最大跌幅。印度卢比周三创下自5月以来的最大单日跌幅，触及五个月低点，受美国对印度出口征收高额关税以及外国银行和进口商对美元需求的担忧影响。

Tariff worries trigger rupee's steepest fall in nearly three months.The Indian rupee posted its steepest one-day drop since May and hit a five-month low on Wednesday, hurt by worries over steep U.S. tariffs on Indian exports alongside dollar demand from foreign banks and importers.