泰国10年期国债 (Thailand10Y) 加自选

泰国商业信心指数从上个月的48.6降至2025年7月的45.8。最新数据标志着自2024年9月以来的最低水平，表明几个关键经济领域的担忧日益加剧。由于塑料、食品加工和电器行业的产出明显收缩，表现分项指数从6月份的49.3大幅降至44.3，而产量从51.0降至45.1。此外，就业（48.6比49.6）、整体订单（45.6比48.0）和出口条件（44.3比48.4）的情绪继续恶化，而投资情绪减弱（50.6比52.0）。在定价方面，产出成本从44.4微升至44.6，表明各行业的成本压力较小。展望未来，7月份的三个月前瞻性商业信心指数从前一个月的49.5降至47.9，为2021年8月以来的最低水平。

Thailand's business confidence indicator fell to 45.8 in July 2025 from 48.6 in the previous month. The latest figure marked the lowest level since September 2024, signaling mounting concerns across several key economic areas. The performance sub-index dropped significantly to 44.3 from 49.3 in June, while production declined to 45.1 from 51.0, amid pronounced contractions in output within the plastics, food processing, and electrical appliance industries. Moreover, sentiment continued to deteriorate in employment (48.6 vs 49.6), overall order books (45.6 vs 48.0), and export conditions (44.3 vs 48.4), while investment sentiment weakened (50.6 vs 52.0). On the pricing front, output costs edged up to 44.6 from 44.4, indicating a slight cost pressures across industries. Looking ahead, the three-month forward-looking business sentiment index fell to 47.9 in July—its lowest level since August 2021—from 49.5 in the previous month.

标准普尔全球泰国制造业采购经理人指数从6月份的51.7升至2025年7月的51.9。这标志着连续第三个月的扩张，也是近一年来经营状况的最大改善。这反映了生产活动和商业状况的增长势头。在客户兴趣上升和出口需求增强的支撑下，新订单以今年迄今为止最快的速度增长。作为回应，制造商加大了生产和采购活动，导致投入库存增加。就业水平在6月份停滞后也有所回升，有助于减少积压。与此同时，由于供应商折扣和批量购买，投入成本略有下降，产出价格通胀接近中性。然而，由于出口货物，成品库存再次下降。商业信心升至11个月高点，由于营销努力和扩张计划，企业对未来产量持乐观态度。

The S&P Global Thailand Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.9 in July 2025 from 51.7 in June. This marked the third consecutive month of expansion and the sharpest improvement in operating conditions in nearly a year. This reflected growing momentum in production activity and business conditions. New orders grew at the fastest pace so far this year, supported by rising client interest and stronger export demand. In response, manufacturers ramped up production and purchasing activity, leading to higher input inventories. Employment levels also picked up after stalling in June, helping reduce backlogs. Meanwhile, output price inflation eased close to neutral as input costs fell slightly, thanks to supplier discounts and bulk buying. However, stocks of finished goods dipped again amid outbound shipments. Business confidence improved to an 11-month high, with firms optimistic about future output due to marketing efforts and expansion plans.

2025年5月，泰国零售额同比增长26.1%，低于上个月的41.9%。非耐用品（1.7%对4月份的3.8%）和其他商品（57.1%对89.3%）的销售额增长放缓。与此同时，耐用品（-2.1%对0.6%）、机动车和汽车燃料（-1.2%对0.7%）的销售额下降。与此同时，百货公司、超市和杂货店的销售额进一步增长（21.7%对14%）。按月计算，5月份零售活动下降11.7%，扭转了4月份19.3%的增长。

Retail sales in Thailand rose by 26.1% year-on-year in May 2025, slowing from a 41.9% growth in the previous month. Sales increased at a softer pace for non-durable goods (1.7% vs 3.8% in April) and other goods (57.1% vs 89.3%). At the same time, sales declined for durable goods (-2.1% vs 0.6%) and motor vehicles and automotive fuel (-1.2% vs 0.7%). Meanwhile, sales in department stores, supermarkets and general stores rose further (21.7% vs 14%). On a monthly basis, retail activity dropped by 11.7% in May, reversing a 19.3% gain in April.

2025年6月，泰国的经常账户盈余为24亿美元，比去年同期的17亿美元有所扩大。这一增长主要是由于贸易平衡的增加，从一年前的24亿美元增长到33亿美元，出口增长16.1%，而进口增长缓慢，为13.8%。与此同时，服务业、初级收入和二级收入的净赤字从去年6月的8亿美元扩大到9亿美元。

Thailand’s current account recorded a surplus of USD 2.4 billion in June 2025, widening from USD 1.7 billion in the same month of the previous year. The increase was mainly driven by a higher trade balance, which grew to USD 3.3 billion from USD 2.4 billion a year ago, with exports rising 16.1%, while imports increasing at a softer pace of 13.8%. Meanwhile, net deficit in services, primary income, and secondary income expanded to USD 0.9 billion from USD 0.8 billion in June last year.