澳大利亚10年期国债 (Australia10Y) 加自选

周四，澳元走强至0.645美元以上，试图从前一交易日超过1%的跌幅反弹，结束连续五个交易日的下跌。乐观的经济数据支撑了这一回升，其中6月份零售额增长1.2%，这是自2022年3月以来最强劲的月度增长，远高于0.4%的增长预期。建筑审批量也飙升了11.9%，这是自2023年5月以来的最大增幅，也是连续第二个月增长。然而，由于澳大利亚储备银行谨慎的温和前景，澳元仍面临压力。澳大利亚储备银行副行长豪瑟表示，第二季度通胀数据“非常受欢迎”，与预期一致，但强调央行仍持谨慎态度，依赖数据。随着通胀降至四年低点，失业率上升至4.3%，市场预计8月12日降息的可能性为95%。在其他地方，中国的工厂活动收缩幅度超过预期，限制了人民币的涨幅。

The Australian dollar strengthened to above $0.645 on Thursday, attempting to rebound from an over 1% loss in the prior session to end a five-session losing streak. The upturn was supported by upbeat economic data, led by a 1.2% jump in retail sales for June—the strongest monthly gain since March 2022 and well above expectations of a 0.4% rise. Building approvals also surged 11.9%, the strongest increase since May 2023 and the second straight month of growth. However, the Aussie remained under pressure by a cautiously dovish outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia. RBA Deputy Governor Hauser said the Q2 inflation data was “very welcome” and aligned with expectations, but emphasized the central bank remains cautious and data-dependent. With inflation easing to a four-year low and unemployment rising to 4.3%, markets are pricing in a 95% chance of a rate cut on August 12. Elsewhere, China’s factory activity contracted more than expected, limiting gains for the Chinese-proxy currency.