新西兰10年期国债 (NewZealand10Y) 加自选

新西兰经济在2025年第二季度同比收缩0.6%，延续了上一季度0.6%的下降趋势，打破了持平增长的预期。经济衰退的原因是商品生产行业下降4.7%（第一季度为-2.8%），建筑业（-7.6%对-8%）和制造业（-3.2%对+2%）大幅下降。相比之下，服务业增长0.5%，高于第一季度的0.1%，而第一产业小幅增长0.1%，低于此前的0.5%。按季度计算，GDP下降0.9%，扭转了第一季度0.9%的增长。

New Zealand’s economy contracted by 0.6% year-on-year in Q2 2025, extending the 0.6% decline seen in the previous quarter and defying expectations of flat growth. The downturn was driven by a 4.7% drop in goods-producing industries (vs. -2.8% in Q1), with sharp declines in construction (-7.6% vs. -8%) and manufacturing (-3.2% vs. +2%). In contrast, service industries grew 0.5%, up from a 0.1% rise in Q1, while the primary sector inched up 0.1%, slowing from 0.5% growth previously. On a quarterly basis, GDP fell 0.9%, reversing a 0.9% expansion in the first quarter.

新西兰经济在2025年第二季度环比收缩0.9%，扭转了上一季度向上修正的0.8%的增长，超过了市场预期的0.2%的下降。这场经济衰退结束了连续两个季度的经济增长，此前经济连续收缩。按行业划分，初级产出下降了0.3%（第一季度为+0.5%），而商品生产行业下降了（第二季度为-3.5%对+2.4%），其中采矿业（-4.1%对+1%）和制造业（-2.4%对+0.1%）大幅下降。服务业总体持平，运输、邮政和仓储（-0.6%对+0.6%）、医疗保健和社会援助（-0.7%对+1.7%）以及金融和保险服务（-0.5%对-0.5%）显著下降。相比之下，批发贸易（+1.4%对-0.4%）、信息媒体和电信（+1.8%对-0.8%）以及租赁、雇佣和房地产服务（+0.7%对+0.3%）均有所上涨。按年度计算，第二季度GDP收缩0.6%，与第一季度的下降速度相匹配。

New Zealand’s economy contracted by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025, reversing an upwardly revised 0.8% expansion in the previous quarter and exceeding market expectations of a 0.2% decline. This downturn ended two straight quarters of growth that followed back-to-back contractions. By industry, primary output fell 0.3% (vs. +0.5% in Q1), while goods-producing industries dropped (-3.5% vs. +2.4% in Q1), led by steep declines in mining (-4.1% vs. +1%) and manufacturing (-2.4% vs. +0.1%). The services sector was broadly flat, with notable declines in transport, postal and warehousing (-0.6% vs. +0.6%), healthcare and social assistance (-0.7% vs. +1.7%), and financial and insurance services (-0.5% vs. -0.5%). In contrast, wholesale trade (+1.4% vs. -0.4%), information media and telecommunications (+1.8% vs. -0.8%), and rental, hiring and real estate services (+0.7% vs. +0.3%) posted gains. On an annual basis, GDP contracted 0.6% in Q2, matching the pace of decline in the first quarter.

新西兰股市周四早盘下跌45点，跌幅0.3%，至13184点，较前一交易日进一步下跌，触及两周来的最低水平。新西兰50指数下跌，此前最新数据显示，新西兰第二季度国内生产总值环比收缩0.9%，收缩幅度大于市场预期（0.3%），同比意外收缩0.6%。周三的报告显示，在生活成本上升和经济不确定性持续存在的情况下，消费者对该国的信心仍然疲软。美联储的降息未能提振市场情绪，因为它符合市场预期，投资者仍在消化其最新的经济预测。几乎所有行业都出现了亏损，公用事业、通信服务和非必需消费品领涨。早期失败者包括Hallenstein Glasson（-1.5%）、Chorus（-1.4%）、Meridian Energy（-1.2%）、Mercury NZ（-0.7%）和Fletcher Building（-0.6%）。

Equities in New Zealand fell 45 points, or 0.3%, to 13,184 in morning trade on Thursday, deepening losses from the previous session and hitting their lowest level in two weeks. The NZX 50 dropped after fresh data showed that New Zealand's GDP shrank by 0.9% QoQ in Q2, a steeper contraction than the market expected (0.3%) and an unexpected contraction of 0.6% YoY. The data followed Wednesday’s report showing that consumer confidence in the country remained weak amid rising living costs and ongoing economic uncertainty. The Fed's rate cut failed to lift sentiment, as it met market expectations and investors were still digesting its updated economic projections. Almost all sectors traded in the red, led by utilities, communication services, and consumer discretionary. Among early losers were Hallenstein Glasson (-1.5%), Chorus (-1.4%), Meridian Energy (-1.2%), Mercury NZ (-0.7%), and Fletcher Building (-0.6%).

新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数周三下跌0.05%，收于13228点，因投资者将注意力转向周四公布的该国GDP数据而减少了早些时候的跌幅。预计6月季度经济将萎缩0.3%，支持明年初再降息两次的预期。在全球范围内，市场关注的焦点是美联储今天晚些时候的政策决定，人们普遍预计美联储将降息25个基点。在企业方面，奥克兰国际机场（-1.5%）、a2 Milk（-3.2%）、陶朗加港（-1.6%）、Spark NZ（-0.8%）和Heartland Group（-1.5%。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index fell 0.05% to close at 13,228 on Wednesday, trimming earlier losses as investors turned their attention to the country’s GDP data due on Thursday. The economy is anticipated to shrank by 0.3% in the June quarter, supporting expectations for two more rate cuts by early next year. Globally, market focus is on the US Federal Reserve's policy decision later today, where it is widely expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut. On the corporate front, losses in Auckland Intl Airport (-1.5%), a2 Milk (-3.2%), Port of Tauranga (-1.6%), Spark NZ (-0.8%), and Heartland Group (-1.5%) weighed on the benchmark. However, declines were partly offset by solid gains in utility and property stocks, sectors that tend to benefit from lower interest rates.