法国10年期国债 (France10Y) 加自选

法国10年期政府债券收益率徘徊在3.3%左右，交易员继续评估货币和经济前景。市场参与者已经降低了对欧洲央行今年降息25个基点的预期，掉期市场目前定价的可能性不到50%。在情绪转变之前，西班牙的通货膨胀率连续第二个月上升，德国几个州的物价温和上涨，法国和意大利的通货膨胀稳定。在更广泛的欧元区，第二季度GDP仅增长了0.1%，与第一季度的0.6%相比大幅放缓，但略好于停滞的预测。数据显示了明显的地区差异：德国和意大利都出现了0.1%的收缩，而法国和西班牙则略有增长。与此同时，在贸易方面，投资者对最近宣布的美国-欧盟贸易协定的担忧仍然很高，该协定被广泛认为有利于美国。

France's 10-year government bond yield hovered around 3.3% as traders continued to assess the monetary and economic outlook. Market participants have scaled back expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the ECB this year, with swap markets now pricing in less than a 50% probability. The shift in sentiment follows a second consecutive monthly rise in inflation in Spain, modest price increases in several German states, and stable inflation in France and Italy. In the broader Eurozone, GDP expanded by just 0.1% in the second quarter—a sharp slowdown from 0.6% in Q1, but slightly better than forecasts of stagnation. The data revealed notable regional disparities: Germany and Italy both saw contractions of 0.1%, while France and Spain posted modest gains. Meanwhile, on the trade front, investor concerns remain elevated over the recently announced U.S.–EU trade agreement, which is widely perceived as favoring the United States.

CAC 40指数周四上涨0.5%，至7898点，随着企业盈利继续成为焦点，该指数有望实现大幅月度上涨。法国兴业银行（SociétéGénérale）在超过第二季度预期后飙升近6%，达到2008年10月以来的最高水平，而赛峰集团（Safran）在上半年核心利润好于预期并上调了其财年指导后，上涨4.7%，创下历史新高。此外，Legrand在公布更高的净利润后上涨4%，创下历史新高。不利的一面是，雅高集团股价暴跌近12%，至6月以来的最低水平，尽管其上半年盈利增长超出预期。此外，赛诺菲在未达到收入预期后下跌2.1%，而法国农业信贷银行因投资者对其最新业绩感到失望而下跌1.7%。在国内经济方面，2025年6月生产者价格指数环比下降0.2%，这是自2月以来最温和的通货紧缩。与此同时，初步估计显示，7月份消费者通胀率稳定在1%，与市场预测相符。

The CAC 40 rose 0.5% to 7,898 on Thursday, heading for significant monthly gains as corporate earnings continued to take center stage. Société Générale soared nearly 6% to its highest level since October 2008 after surpassing Q2 expectations, while Safran jumped 4.7% to a record high following better-than-expected H1 core profit and lifting its FY guidance. Moreover, Legrand rose 4% to an all-time high after reporting higher net profit. On the downside, Accor plunged nearly 12% to its lowest level since June, despite reporting a larger-than-expected rise in H1 earnings. Additionally, Sanofi dropped 2.1% after missing revenue estimates, while Crédit Agricole slipped 1.7% amid investor disappointment with its latest results. On the domestic economic front, producer prices fell by 0.2% month-on-month in June 2025, marking the mildest deflation since February. At the same time, preliminary estimates showed that consumer inflation remained steady at 1% in July, matching market forecasts.

据初步估计，2025年7月，法国的年通货膨胀率稳定在1%，与6月持平，符合市场预期。能源价格下跌幅度更大（-7.2%，而6月份为-6.7%），主要是由于2024年7月天然气价格大幅上涨的基础效应。制成品价格继续以与6月份相同的速度下跌（-0.2%）。相比之下，食品价格的涨幅略高（1.6%对1.4%），服务价格的涨幅也略高（2.5%对2.4%）。按月计算，7月份消费者价格指数上涨0.2%，此前6月份上涨0.4%，超过了0.1%的预期涨幅。主要的上涨压力来自服务成本的季节性增长，特别是交通和住宿成本，以及在较小程度上能源价格的上涨。与此同时，由于夏季销售，制成品价格下降。使用欧盟协调指数，年通货膨胀率保持在0.9%，而月通货膨胀率小幅降至0.3%。

France's annual inflation rate held steady at 1% in July 2025, unchanged from June and in line with market expectations, according to preliminary estimates. Energy prices fell more sharply (-7.2% vs. -6.7% in June), largely due to a base effect from a significant surge in gas prices in July 2024. Prices for manufactured goods continued to decline at the same pace as in June (-0.2%). In contrast, food prices rose slightly more (1.6% vs. 1.4%), as did service prices (2.5% vs. 2.4%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.2% in July, following a 0.4% gain in June and exceeding forecasts of a 0.1% rise. The main upward pressure came from seasonal increases in service costs, particularly in transportation and accommodation, as well as, to a lesser extent, higher energy prices. Meanwhile, manufactured goods prices declined due to summer sales. Using the EU-harmonised index, the annual inflation rate remained at 0.9%, while the monthly rate edged down to 0.3%.

2025年6月，法国国内市场的生产者价格环比下跌0.2%，较上月上调后的0.9%有所缓解。这标志着自2月以来最温和的生产者通缩，因为采掘业、能源和水行业的价格下跌速度较慢（-1.8%对5月的-3.9%），特别是由于电价下降幅度较小（-4.8%对-7.8%）。此外，制成品价格上涨速度更快（0.3%对0%），主要受炼焦和精炼产品（5.8%对-0.9%）、食品、饮料和烟草产品（0.3%对0.2%）、运输设备（0.1%对-0.1%）和其他工业产品（0.2%对-0.2%）的推动。6月份生产者价格指数同比上涨0.2%，此前一个月持平。

Producer prices in the French domestic market fell by 0.2% month-over-month in June 2025, easing from an upwardly revised 0.9% decline in the previous month. This marked the softest producer deflation since February, as prices fell at a slower rate in the extractive, energy, and water industries (-1.8% vs -3.9% in May), notably due to a less pronounced drop in electricity prices (-4.8% vs -7.8%). Moreover, prices increased at a faster pace for manufactured products (0.3% vs 0%), primarily driven by coking and refining products (5.8% vs -0.9%), food, beverages, and tobacco products (0.3% vs 0.2%), transport equipment (0.1% vs -0.1%), and other industrial products (0.2% vs -0.2%). On a yearly basis, producer prices rose by 0.2% in June, following a downwardly revised flat reading in the preceding month.