德国3个月期国债 (Germany3M) 加自选

法兰克福DAX指数在周三震荡后收于24262点，上涨约0.2%，标志着连续第二天温和上涨。投资者评估了一系列地区经济数据和新的企业收益，同时也在关注正在进行的贸易谈判的发展。在国内，德国经济在第二季度预计收缩0.1%，扭转了第一季度0.4%的增长。与此同时，德国内阁已批准2026年预算草案，其中包括创纪录的1267亿欧元投资和1740亿欧元计划借款，旨在加强基础设施和国防。在企业方面，西门子医疗公司（Siemens Healthineers）因第三季度业绩强劲和指导方针上调而上涨约2%，而保时捷公司（Porsche AG）因投资者欢迎其战略改革而上涨1.7%，尽管与4亿欧元的关税打击相关的前景有所下降。

Frankfurt's DAX closed about 0.2% higher at 24,262 after a choppy session on Wednesday, marking the second straight day of mild advances. Investors assessed a slew of regional economic data and fresh corporate earnings, while also monitoring developments on ongoing trade negotiations. Domestically, Germany's economy contracted by an expected 0.1% in Q2, reversing 0.4% growth in Q1. Meanwhile, the German cabinet has approved the 2026 draft budget, which includes a record investment of €126.7 billion and planned borrowing of €174 billion, aimed at reinforcing infrastructure and defence. On the corporate front, Siemens Healthineers gained roughly 2% on strong Q3 results and upgraded guidance, while Porsche AG added 1.7% as investors welcomed its strategic overhaul, despite a lowered outlook tied to a €400 million tariff hit.

德国10年期国债收益率微升至2.71%，接近7月25日达到的四个月高点2.768%，投资者正在权衡最近的经济数据及其对货币政策的影响。欧元区第二季度GDP温和增长0.1%，与第一季度的0.6%相比大幅放缓，但略好于市场对平稳增长的预期。然而，由于投资下降，德国经济收缩了0.1%。相比之下，美国数据显示经济具有弹性，第二季度GDP增长强劲，7月份私人就业增长稳健。这些数据，加上将于8月1日生效的新关税，强化了美联储不太可能很快降息的观点，尽管特朗普总统再次施压放松政策。在欧洲，欧洲央行降息的预期被进一步推高，市场目前预计到2026年3月降息25个基点的可能性为90%，而12月降息的可能性已降至30%。

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield edged higher toward 2.71%, approaching a four-month peak of 2.768% reached on July 25, as investors weighed recent economic data and its implications for monetary policy. Eurozone GDP rose by a modest 0.1% in Q2, a sharp slowdown from 0.6% in Q1, though slightly better than market expectations of flat growth. Germany's economy, however, contracted by 0.1%, dragged down by falling investment. In contrast, US data pointed to economic resilience, with strong Q2 GDP growth and solid private employment gains in July. These figures, along with new tariffs set to take effect August 1, reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates soon, despite renewed pressure from President Trump to ease policy. In Europe, ECB rate cut expectations have been pushed further out, with markets now pricing in a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point cut by March 2026, while the likelihood of a move in December has dropped to 30%.

法兰克福DAX指数试图复苏，上涨0.2%，随后涨幅回落至略高于持平点，交易员权衡了企业盈利、经济数据和正在进行的贸易谈判。在国内，德国经济在第二季度收缩了0.1%，与预测相符，扭转了第一季度0.4%的增长。与此同时，德国内阁已批准2026年预算草案，其中包括创纪录的1267亿欧元投资和1740亿欧元计划借款，旨在加强基础设施和国防。在企业方面，保时捷公司领涨，涨幅超过3%，投资者对其战略改革表示欢迎，尽管与4亿欧元的关税打击相关的前景有所下降。西门子医疗公司因第三季度业绩强劲和指导方针升级而上涨超过2%。阿迪达斯在未达到收入目标并发布盈利预警后暴跌近8%，而梅赛德斯-奔驰在上半年利润减半后下跌1%，该公司下调了全年收入预测。

Frankfurt's DAX attempted a recovery, rising 0.2% before paring gains to trade just above the flatline, as traders weighed corporate earnings, economic data, and ongoing trade negotiations. Domestically, Germany's economy contracted 0.1% in Q2, in line with forecasts, reversing 0.4% growth in Q1. Meanwhile, the German cabinet has approved the 2026 draft budget, which includes a record investment of €126.7 billion and planned borrowing of €174 billion, aimed at reinforcing infrastructure and defence. On the corporate front, Porsche AG led gains, rising over 3% as investors welcomed its strategic overhaul, despite a lowered outlook tied to a €400 million tariff hit. Siemens Healthineers gained more than 2% on strong Q3 results and upgraded guidance. Adidas plunged nearly 8% after missing revenue targets and issuing a profit warning, while Mercedes-Benz slipped 1% after first-half profit more than halved and the company cut its full-year revenue forecast.

根据初步估计，德国经济在2025年第二季度环比收缩0.1%，此前一季度向下修正了0.3%的扩张。这一数字符合市场预期，标志着自2024年第二季度以来的首次季度收缩。下降的主要原因是设备和建筑投资减少。然而，私人和政府消费继续增长，部分抵消了整体放缓。

Germany’s economy contracted by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2025, following a downwardly revised 0.3% expansion in the previous quarter, according to a preliminary estimate. The figure was in line with market expectations and marks the first quarterly contraction since Q2 2024. The decline was primarily driven by reduced investment in both equipment and construction. However, private and government consumption continued to grow, partially offsetting the overall slowdown.