匈牙利10年期国债 (Hungary10Y) 加自选

2025年7月，HALPIM制造业采购经理人指数从前一个月向上修正的49升至50.7。大多数子指数都有所改善，其中8个现在处于恢复范围内。值得注意的是，新订单分项指数上涨5.2点，而产量上升1.6点。本月就业指数也有所上升，标志着在连续两个月收缩后的复苏。

The HALPIM Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 in July 2025 from an upwardly revised 49 in the previous month. Most sub-indices showed improvement, with eight of them now in the recovery range. Notably, the sub-index for new orders jumped by 5.2 points, while production rose by 1.6 points. The employment index also rose this month, signaling a recovery after two consecutive months of contraction.

匈牙利的年度生产者通胀率从上个月的6.9%降至2025年6月的5.1%。这是自2024年10月以来的最低水平，因为制造业（2.8%对5月的4.2%）、采矿和采石业（4.8%对4.9%）以及电力、天然气、蒸汽和空调供应（6.5%对7.8%）的价格有所放缓。相反，水收集、处理和供应的成本增长更快（3.5%对3.1%）。按月计算，6月份生产者价格指数下跌0.1%，较5月份0.7%的跌幅有所缓解。

Hungary’s annual producer inflation slowed to 5.1% in June 2025 from 6.9% in the previous month. This marked the lowest reading since October 2024, as prices moderated for manufacturing (2.8% vs 4.2% in May), mining and quarrying (4.8% vs 4.9%), and electricity, gas, steam & air-conditioning supply (6.5% vs 7.8%). Conversely, costs rose faster for water collection, treatment & supply (3.5% vs 3.1%). On a monthly basis, producer prices fell by 0.1% in June, easing from a 0.7% drop in May.

初步估计，继前三个月增长停滞之后，匈牙利2025年第二季度国内生产总值同比增长0.1%。温和的改善主要是由于服务业，特别是信息和通信业的综合表现。然而，农业和工业增加值的放缓部分抵消了这一回升。经季节性调整的季度数据显示，2025年第二季度经济增长0.4%，从前一时期向下修正的0.1%收缩中恢复过来。

Hungary’s gross domestic product expanded by 0.1% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025, following stagnant growth in the previous three-month period, according to preliminary estimates. The modest improvement was mainly driven by the combined performances in the services sector, particularly information and communication. However, the upturn was partially offset by the slowdown in the added value of agriculture and industry. On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the economy grew by 0.4% in the second quarter of 2025, recovering from a downwardly revised 0.1% contraction in the preceding period.

2025年6月，匈牙利的贸易顺差从去年同期的11.24亿欧元收窄至9.78亿欧元，原因是出口增长低于进口。出口同比增长0.1%，达到122.73亿欧元，进口同比增长1.4%，达到112.95亿欧元。出口增长放缓之际，全球贸易面临更广泛的逆风，需求模式也在发生变化。美国是匈牙利重要的非欧洲贸易伙伴，在匈牙利的贸易中发挥着重要作用。然而，美国对匈牙利主要出口产品电子和机械的关税可能会对未来的贸易流量造成压力，特别是考虑到双边贸易对全球经济和监管变化的历史敏感性。考虑到今年上半年，该国的贸易顺差从去年同期的77.7亿欧元降至68.13亿欧元。

Hungary’s trade surplus narrowed to EUR 978 million in June 2025 from EUR 1,124 million in the corresponding month a year ago, as exports rose less than imports. Year-on-year, exports grew by 0.1% to EUR 12,273 million, while imports increased by 1.4% to EUR 11,295 million. The moderation in export growth comes amid broader global trade headwinds and shifting demand patterns. The US, a key non-European trading partner, plays a significant role in Hungary’s trade. However, US tariffs on electronics and machinery, which are major Hungarian exports, could weigh on future trade flows, especially given the historical sensitivity of bilateral trade to global economic and regulatory shifts. Considering the first six months of the year, the country’s trade surplus fell to EUR 6,813 million from EUR 7,770 million in the same period last year.