意大利10年期国债 (Italy10Y) 加自选

2025年6月，意大利工业生产者价格指数同比上涨2.5%，高于5月份的1.8%。国内市场价格增长加快，达到3.9%，而前一个月为2.7%。相比之下，国外市场的价格保持不变，为0.3%。在国外市场，欧元区的价格上涨幅度更大（5月份为0.8%对0.5%），而非欧元区的房价下跌（-0.4%对0.0%）。按月计算，6月份生产者价格指数上涨1.5%，从5月份0.7%的跌幅反弹。

Industrial producer prices in Italy rose by 2.5% year-on-year in June 2025, up from a 1.8% increase in May. Price growth accelerated in the domestic market, reaching 3.9% compared to 2.7% in the previous month. In contrast, prices in the foreign market remained unchanged at 0.3%. Within the foreign market, prices rose more in the Euro area (0.8% vs 0.5% in May), while they declined in the non-Euro area (-0.4% vs 0.0%). On a monthly basis, producer prices increased by 1.5% in June, rebounding from a 0.7% decline in May.

意大利10年期政府债券收益率徘徊在3.5%左右，交易员继续评估货币和经济前景。市场参与者降低了对欧洲央行今年降息25个基点的预期，掉期市场现在认为此举的可能性不到50%。此前，西班牙的通货膨胀率连续第二个月上升，德国几个州的物价温和上涨，法国和意大利的通货膨胀稳定。与此同时，欧元区第二季度GDP仅增长0.1%，与第一季度的0.6%相比明显放缓，但仍略好于无增长的预测。然而，数据突显了地区差异：德国和意大利都出现了0.1%的收缩，而法国和西班牙则出现了温和的扩张。在贸易方面，投资者对最近宣布的美国-欧盟贸易协定的担忧仍然很高，该协定被广泛认为对美国的利益不成比例。

Italy’s 10-year government bond yield hovered around 3.5% as traders continued to evaluate the monetary and economic outlook. Market participants have reduced expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the ECB this year, with swap markets now assigning less than a 50% probability to such a move. This shift follows a second consecutive monthly increase in inflation in Spain, modest price rises in several German states, and steady inflation in both France and Italy. Meanwhile, Eurozone GDP grew by just 0.1% in the second quarter, a marked slowdown from 0.6% in Q1—but still slightly better than forecasts of no growth. However, the data highlighted regional divergences: Germany and Italy both recorded contractions of 0.1%, while France and Spain posted modest expansions. On the trade front, investor concerns remain elevated over the recently announced US–EU trade agreement, which is widely viewed as disproportionately benefiting the United States.

据初步估计，2025年7月，意大利的年通货膨胀率与上月相比保持不变，为1.7%，与市场预期的1.5%形成鲜明对比。欧盟协调通胀率从上月的1.8%小幅降至1.7%，与今年迄今为止的最低水平持平，仍低于欧洲央行2%的目标，但高于1.6%的预期。除了杂项服务（2.2%对1.6%）和运输服务（3.4%对2.9%）外，未加工食品（5.1%对6月的4.2%）和加工食品（3.1%对2.7%）的通货膨胀率都有所上升。反过来，受监管的能源（16.7%对22.6%）和娱乐和文化服务（2.6%对3.2%）的价格放缓。核心通胀率（不包括波动较大且往往是外生的新鲜食品和能源分项）保持不变，为2%。与上月相比，意大利CPI上涨了0.4%。

The annual inflation rate in Italy remained unchanged from the previous month at 1.7% in July of 2025, contrasting with market expectations that it would have eased to 1.5%, according to a preliminary estimate. Consistently, the EU-harmonized inflation rate inched lower to 1.7% from 1.8% in the previous month, tying the lowest rate so far this year and remaining below the ECB's target of 2%, but above expectations of 1.6%. Inflation rose for both unprocessed (5.1% vs 4.2% in June) and processed (3.1% vs 2.7%) food, in addition to miscellaneous services (2.2% vs 1.6%) and transportation services (3.4% vs 2.9%). In turn, prices slowed for regulated energy (16.7% vs 22.6%) and recreational and cultural services (2.6% vs 3.2%). The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile and often exogenous fresh food and energy subindices, remained unchanged at 2%. From the previous month, the Italian CPI rose by 0.4%.

周四，富时MIB微涨至41680左右，徘徊在2007年年中以来的最高水平附近，投资者关注企业盈利，等待关键经济数据公布。普睿司曼股价上涨近2%，此前公布的调整后息税折旧摊销前利润比公司普遍预期高出4%。继第二季度表现强劲之后，该公司还上调了2025年的展望。莱昂纳多在上半年收入同比增长12.9%后，增长了0.6%。相比之下，Enel下滑0.5%，尽管报告称2025年上半年息税折旧摊销前利润增长了10%，这得益于强劲的发电业绩和天然气交易的改善。在数据方面，意大利6月份的失业率降至6.3%，高于6.4%的预期，低于5月份的6.5%，保持了相对强劲的劳动力市场。投资者现在等待今天公布的更多关键数据，包括7月的初步通胀数据和6月的PPI数据。本月，该指数有望强劲上涨近5%。

The FTSE MIB edged higher to around 41,680 on Thursday, hovering near its highest level since mid-2007, as investors focused on corporate earnings and awaited key economic data releases. Prysmian rose nearly 2% after reporting an adjusted EBITDA that beat company consensus by 4%. Following a strong second-quarter performance, the company also raised its 2025 outlook. Leonardo added 0.6% after posting a 12.9% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of the year. In contrast, Enel slipped 0.5%, despite reporting a 10% rise in EBITDA for H1 2025, supported by strong generation performance and improved gas trading. On the data front, Italy’s unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in June, beating expectations of 6.4% and down from 6.5% in May, maintaining a relatively robust labor market. Investors now await more key releases due today, including preliminary inflation data for July and June’s PPI figures. For the month, the index is on track for a strong nearly 5% gain.