意大利1个月期国债 (Italy1M) 加自选

周三，富时MIB指数上涨1%，收于41638点，受美国8月1日关税截止日期前企业盈利的提振。意大利第二季度GDP意外收缩，尽管积极的国内需求和更广泛的欧元区GDP增长强于预期，支撑了股市。联合圣保罗银行在公布第二季度利润26亿欧元后飙升4.4%，超过了24亿欧元的预期，收入70亿欧元也高于预期。BPER Banca因持续的并购猜测上涨3.1%。锡耶纳银行（Banca Monte Paschi di Siena）股价上涨2.9%，对其收购Mediobanca持乐观态度，此举可能会在潜在的第二波整合中扩大其规模。相比之下，Amplifon股价暴跌25.5%，此前利润下降8.7%，调整后的核心利润率预测从24%降至23%，南欧、北美和中国等主要市场表现疲软。

The FTSE MIB rose 1% to close at 41,638 on Wednesday, lifted by corporate earnings ahead of the looming US August 1st tariff deadline. The Italian GDP unexpectedly contracted in Q2, although positive domestic demand and stronger-than-expected growth in broader Eurozone GDPs supported equities. Intesa Sanpaolo surged 4.4% after posting a €2.6B Q2 profit, beating the €2.4B estimate, with €7B in revenue also above forecasts. BPER Banca gained 3.1% on continued M&A speculation. Banca Monte Paschi di Siena climbed 2.9% amid optimism over its bid for Mediobanca, a move that could boost its scale in a potential second wave of consolidation. In contrast, Amplifon plunged 25.5% after an 8.7% drop in profits and a cut to its adjusted core profit margin forecast to 23%, down from 24%, with weakness seen in key markets including Southern Europe, North America, and China.

在米兰，富时MIB指数周三上涨403点，涨幅0.98%。涨幅最大的银行是联合圣保罗银行（4.32%）、Bper Banca银行（3.14%）和锡耶纳银行（2.90%）。最大的损失来自Amplifon（-25.46%）、Recordati（-3.96%）和Hera（-2.98%）。

In Milan, the FTSE MIB Index went up by 403 points or 0.98 percent on Wednesday. Top gainers were Intesa Sanpaolo (4.32%), Bper Banca (3.14%) and Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (2.90%). Biggest losses came from Amplifon (-25.46%), Recordati (-3.96%) and Hera (-2.98%).

意大利10年期政府债券收益率攀升至3.56%以上，接近7月25日达到的两个月高点3.66%，因为投资者根据最近的经济数据重新评估了货币政策前景。欧元区经济在第二季度仅增长了0.1%，与第一季度的0.6%相比大幅放缓，但仍略高于无增长的预期。意大利的国内生产总值下降了0.1%，这是自2023年第二季度以来的首次经济下滑，主要是由于美国关税威胁和大宗商品价格波动导致的净外国需求的负面影响。相比之下，美国经济数据显示经济持续走强，第二季度GDP增长强劲，7月份私营部门就业增长稳健，这表明尽管特朗普总统持续施压，美联储可能会推迟任何降息。在欧元区，对欧洲央行降息的预期已进一步推迟到2026年。市场目前预计，到3月降息25个基点的可能性为90%，而12月降息的可能性已降至30%。

Italy’s 10-year government bond yield climbed above 3.56%, nearing the two-month high of 3.66% reached on July 25, as investors reassessed monetary policy outlooks in light of recent economic data. The Eurozone economy expanded by just 0.1% in Q2, a significant slowdown from 0.6% in Q1, but still marginally above expectations for no growth. Italy’s GDP contracted by 0.1%, marking the first economic decline since Q2 2023, driven by a negative contribution from net foreign demand amid US tariff threats and volatile commodity prices. By contrast, US economic data signaled ongoing strength, with robust Q2 GDP growth and solid private-sector job gains in July, suggesting the Fed may delay any interest rate cuts, despite continued pressure from President Trump. In the Eurozone, expectations for ECB rate cuts have been pushed further into 2026. Markets now price in a 90% probability of a 25-basis-point cut by March, while the likelihood of a December move has declined to just 30%.

继上个月下调1.4%后，意大利工业销售额在2025年5月环比下降2.2%。国内市场（-2.2%对4月份的1.8%）和国外市场（-2.0%对0.5%）的销售额均有所下降。在主要工业集团中，只有能源销售额有所增长（+1.3%），而资本货物（-4.3%）、消费品（-1.7%）和中间产品（-1.3%）的销售额均有所下降。按年度计算，工业销售在4月份下调0.9%后，5月份下降了1.8%。

Industrial sales in Italy dropped by 2.2% month-over-month in May 2025, following a downwardly revised 1.4% rise in the previous month. Sales decreased in both the domestic market (-2.2% vs 1.8% in April) and the foreign market (-2.0% vs 0.5%). Among the main industrial groupings, only energy sales recorded an increase (+1.3%), while sales of capital goods (-4.3%), consumer goods (-1.7%), and intermediate goods (-1.3%) all declined. On a yearly basis, industrial sales fell by 1.8% in May, after a downwardly revised 0.9% gain in April.