意大利3个月期国债 (Italy3M) 加自选

意大利10年期政府债券收益率小幅上涨至3.55%，因投资者权衡了新实施的美国关税和新的欧元区通胀数据的影响。美国的有效关税率已从年初的略高于2%飙升至15%左右，为20世纪30年代以来的最高水平。在8月1日截止日期前最后一刻达成协议后，欧盟现在对其对美国的出口征收15%的关税。在通胀方面，7月份欧元区消费者价格同比上涨2.0%，连续第二个月达到欧洲央行的目标，但略高于市场预测的1.9%。核心通胀率稳定在2.3%。随着未来几个月整体通胀率预计仍将高于欧洲央行的预期，进一步降息的可能性已经降低。在美国，美联储主席鲍威尔的鹰派语气进一步降低了市场对9月会议降息的预期。

Italy’s 10-year government bond yield rose slightly to 3.55% as investors weighed the impact of newly implemented US tariffs and fresh Eurozone inflation data. The effective US tariff rate has surged to around 15%, up from just over 2% at the beginning of the year—its highest level since the 1930s. The EU now faces a 15% tariff on its exports to the US, following a last-minute deal reached just before the August 1 deadline. On the inflation side, Eurozone consumer prices increased by 2.0% year-on-year in July, matching the ECB’s target for a second straight month but slightly exceeding market forecasts of 1.9%. Core inflation held steady at 2.3%. With headline inflation projected to remain above ECB expectations in the coming months, the probability of further rate cuts has diminished. In the US, Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish tone has further dampened market expectations for a rate cut at the September meeting.

2025年6月，意大利零售额较上月增长0.6%，从6月0.4%的下降中反弹，明显高于市场预期的0.2%的增长。该数据与最近的GDP报告一致，该报告强调了意大利经济的国内需求增强，尽管自欧洲和美国之间的贸易战威胁以来，经济不确定性水平有所上升。零售业受到食品大幅反弹的支撑（5月份为1.4%对-0.8%），而非食品类商品的营业额略有增长（0.1%对0%）。与去年相比，零售业增长了1%。

Retail sales in Italy jumped by 0.6% from the previous month in June of 2025, rebounding from the 0.4% decline in June and firmly above market expectations of a 0.2% expansion. The data was consistent with the recent GDP report that highlighted stronger domestic demand in the Italian economy, despite the heightened level of economic uncertainty since the threat of trade wars between Europe and the US. Retail was supported by a sharp rebound in food goods (1.4% vs -0.8% in May), while turnover for non-food goods gained some slight traction (0.1% vs 0%). From the previous year, retail expanded by 1%.

HCOB意大利制造业采购经理人指数从6月份的48.4升至2025年7月的49.8，超出了市场预期的49.0。这标志着自2024年3月以来制造业收缩速度最慢，接近稳定。新订单仅略有下降，而产量下降幅度较上月有所缓和。就业人数连续第十个月下降，但下降的主要原因是自愿离职，而不是裁员。尽管人员配备水平较低，但各公司继续处理积压的工作，尽管速度比6月份慢。在定价方面，由于原材料成本上涨，7月份投入和产出价格三个月来首次上涨。展望未来，商业信心有所改善，这得益于对经济和地缘政治状况的乐观态度、新产品的推出以及最近赢得的客户，这些都提振了增长预期。

The HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in July 2025, up from 48.4 in June and beating market expectations of 49.0. This marked the slowest pace of contraction in the manufacturing sector since March 2024, edging closer to stabilization. New orders declined only marginally, while the drop in output was less pronounced than the previous month. Employment fell for the tenth consecutive month, though the decline was primarily due to voluntary departures rather than layoffs. Despite the lower staffing levels, firms continued to work through backlogs, albeit at a slower rate than in June. On the pricing front, both input and output prices rose in July for the first time in three months, driven by higher raw material costs. Looking ahead, business confidence improved, supported by optimism around economic and geopolitical conditions, the launch of new products, and recent client wins that bolstered growth expectations.

周五，富时MIB指数下跌超过1%，至40440点左右，延续了前一交易日的跌幅，触及两周多来的低点，因为新宣布的美国关税打压了市场情绪。美国的有效关税率已从今年早些时候的2%多一点飙升至15%左右，为几十年来的最高水平。值得注意的变化包括加拿大商品的关税从25%提高到35%，瑞士进口商品的关税提高到39%。欧盟通过在最后一刻达成协议，勉强避免了更严厉的处罚，但自8月1日起，欧盟仍面临对美国出口15%的关税。与此同时，交易员消化了一批新的企业收益。尽管倍耐力报告上半年有机收入增长4.4%，净利润从一年前的2.31亿欧元上升到2.64亿欧元，但倍耐力股价下跌了近3%。在数据方面，意大利制造业正在接近稳定，而6月份零售额同比增长1%，较5月份的1.4%有所放缓。

The FTSE MIB fell more than 1% to around 40,440 on Friday, extending losses from the previous session and hitting a more than two-week low, as sentiment was weighed down by newly announced US tariffs. The effective US tariff rate has surged to around 15%, up from just over 2% earlier this year—its highest level in decades. Notable changes include an increase in tariffs on Canadian goods to 35% from 25%, and on Swiss imports to 39%. The EU narrowly avoided steeper penalties by securing a last-minute deal, but still faces a 15% tariff on its exports to the US, effective August 1. Meanwhile, traders digested a fresh batch of corporate earnings. Pirelli dropped nearly 3% despite reporting 4.4% organic revenue growth in the first half of the year, with net profit rising to €264 million from €231 million a year earlier. On the data front, Italy’s manufacturing sector is approaching stabilization, while retail sales rose 1% year-on-year in June, easing from a 1.4% gain in May.