挪威10年期国债 (Norway10Y) 加自选

挪威DNB制造业采购经理人指数从上个月的49.3升至2025年7月的50.9，标志着工业活动在6月份短暂收缩后恢复扩张。这一回升是由生产指数反弹推动的，该指数从48.6攀升至53.1，反映了更强劲的产出。与此同时，新订单下降有所缓解，该指数从45.0升至49.6，尽管国内（43.4）和出口（45.0）订单仍处于收缩区间。采购商品的库存略有增加（49.2比48.5），供应商的交货时间延长（54.6比53.5），这通常是活动改善的迹象。然而，就业指数从6月份的52.9回落至47.6，表明劳动力需求疲软。

Norway’s DNB Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in July 2025 from 49.3 in the previous month, signaling a return to expansion in industrial activity following a brief contraction in June. The upturn was driven by a rebound in the production index, which climbed to 53.1 from 48.6, reflecting stronger output. Meanwhile, the decline in new orders eased, with the index rising to 49.6 from 45.0, though both domestic (43.4) and export (45.0) orders remained in contraction territory. Inventories of purchased goods increased slightly (49.2 vs 48.5), and suppliers’ delivery times lengthened (54.6 vs 53.5), typically a sign of improving activity. However, the employment index fell back into contraction at 47.6, down from 52.9 in June, indicating weaker labor demand.

截至2025年6月底，挪威公众的国内贷款债务同比增长4.1%，达到76.9亿挪威克朗，与前两个月持平。这仍然是自2023年9月以来国内贷款债务的最高增长，这是由于市政府贷款债务的增加（8.7%对5月份的7.6%），而家庭贷款债务保持在4.2%不变。与此同时，非金融企业的贷款债务增长从2.7%小幅降至2.4%。

The general public’s domestic loan debt in Norway rose by 4.1% year-on-year to NOK 7.69 billion at the end of June 2025, the same pace as in the previous two months. This remained the highest growth in domestic loan debt since September 2023, driven by an increase in municipal government loan debt (8.7% vs. 7.6% in May), while household loan debt remained unchanged at 4.2%. Meanwhile, loan debt growth for non-financial corporations edged down to 2.4% from 2.7%.

挪威零售销售在上个月上调0.1%后，于2025年6月环比停滞。停滞的主要原因是ICT设备（-0.6%对5月份的-6.2%）、其他家用设备（-0.2%对3.0%）、食品和饮料（-0.5%对1.0%）以及其他商品（-1.2%对0.2%）的销售额下降。这些部分被非商店或摊位的销售额增长（4.4%对-2.4%）和汽车燃料（0.9%对-1.7%）所抵消。6月份零售活动同比增长4.3%。

Retail sales in Norway stalled month-on-month in June 2025, following an upwardly revised 0.1% increase in the previous month. The stagnation was mainly driven by declines in sales of ICT equipment (-0.6% vs -6.2% in May), other household equipment (-0.2% vs 3.0%), food and beverages (-0.5% vs 1.0%), and other goods (-1.2% v. 0.2%). These were partially offset by gains in sales not in stores or stalls (4.4% vs -2.4%) and automotive fuel (0.9% vs -1.7%). On a year-on-year basis, retail activity rose 4.3% in June.

挪威的工业信心指数从第一季度向下修正的3.4降至2025年第二季度的0.9，低于2.9的历史平均水平。这标志着自2024年第一季度以来的最低读数，资本品和消费品生产商的情绪减弱，而中间产品生产商则做出了积极贡献。出口市场的新订单略有下降，而国内市场的订单没有变化。与此同时，大多数中间产品和消费品生产商的产量略有增加，而资本品生产商则明显增加。许多行业经理指出，国内和出口市场的价格都在上涨，消费品生产商的成本价格增长最快。从积极的方面来看，整体就业有所增加，资本货物生产商对增长贡献最大。展望未来，2025年第三季度的总体前景是中性的。

Norway’s industrial confidence indicator dropped to 0.9 in Q2 2025, from a downwardly revised 3.4 in Q1 and below the historical average of 2.9. This marked the lowest reading since Q1 2024, amid weaker sentiment among producers of both capital goods and consumer goods, while producers of intermediate goods contributed positively. New orders from the export markets slightly declined, while those from the domestic markets were unchanged. Meanwhile, most intermediate goods and consumer goods producers reported a small increase in production, whereas producers of capital goods saw a clear rise. Many industrial managers noted rising prices in both domestic and export markets, with consumer goods producers experiencing the sharpest growth in cost prices. On a positive note, overall employment increased, with producers of capital goods responsible for most of the growth. Looking ahead, the general outlook for Q3 2025 is neutral.