葡萄牙10年期国债 (Portugal10Y) 加自选

葡萄牙的年通货膨胀率从7月份的2.6%上升到2025年8月的2.8%，为2024年12月以来的最高水平。这一增长是由食品价格推动的，食品价格上涨了4.0%，这是自2023年10月以来的最快速度，此外还有运输成本（2.1%对1.8%）和餐馆和酒店成本（7.7%对7.5%）的上涨。住房通胀率稳定在2.2%，而杂项商品和服务价格从2.1%降至1.9%。不包括食品和能源在内的核心通胀率从2.5%略微降至2.4%。与此同时，8月份欧盟统一消费者价格指数（HICP）上涨2.5%，仍高于欧洲央行2%的目标。

Portugal’s annual inflation rate rose to 2.8% in August 2025 from 2.6% in July, the highest since December 2024. The increase was driven by food prices, which climbed 4.0%—their fastest pace since October 2023—along with higher costs for transport (2.1% vs. 1.8%) and restaurants and hotels (7.7% vs. 7.5%). Housing inflation held steady at 2.2%, while prices for miscellaneous goods and services slowed to 1.9% from 2.1%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, eased slightly to 2.4% from 2.5%. Meanwhile, the EU-harmonized consumer price index (HICP) advanced 2.5% in August, remaining above the European Central Bank’s 2% target.

葡萄牙的贸易逆差从一年前的21.2亿欧元扩大到2025年7月的32.93亿欧元，因为进口增加，而出口大幅下降。进口增长2.8%，主要受工业供应（+8.1%）的推动，尤其是来自爱尔兰的化学产品，但不包括加工交易，进口略有下降（-0.8%）。运输设备（+15.2%），尤其是德国汽车，以及主要来自西班牙的消费品（+9.3%）也有所上涨。相比之下，由于原油价格和数量下降，燃料进口下降了29.4%。来自爱尔兰的进口激增76.3%（不包括加工），而西班牙增长6.1%。出口下降11.3%，主要是工业用品（-29.3%），尤其是对德国和美国的化学品，但不包括加工品，出口小幅增长0.4%。运输设备出口增长17.8%，缓冲了下滑。对德国（-46.4%）和美国（-37.1%）的出口大幅下降，主要是化学品。2025年5月至7月季度，进口增长6.6%，出口下降3.4%。

Portugal's trade deficit widened to €3.293 billion in July 2025 from €2.12 billion a year earlier, as imports rose while exports fell sharply. Imports grew 2.8%, driven by industrial supplies (+8.1%), especially chemical products from Ireland, though excluding processing transactions they fell slightly (-0.8%). Transport equipment (+15.2%), notably German cars, and consumer goods (+9.3%), mainly from Spain, also rose. In contrast, fuel imports dropped 29.4% due to lower crude oil prices and volumes. Imports from Ireland surged 76.3% (or 9.4% excluding processing), while Spain grew 6.1%. Exports fell 11.3%, led by industrial supplies (-29.3%), especially chemicals to Germany and the US, though excluding processing these edged up 0.4%. Transport equipment exports rose 17.8%, cushioning the decline. Exports to Germany (-46.4%) and the US (-37.1%) plunged, largely in chemicals. For the May–July 2025 quarter, imports rose 6.6% while exports fell 3.4%.

继上个月上调3%后，葡萄牙工业生产在2025年7月同比增长2.3%。这标志着工业活动在能源的支持下连续第三个月温和增长（6月份为16.1%对20%）；资本货物（3%对1.6%）和中间货物（2.5%对-0.4%）。然而，消费品产量下降（-4.1%对0.7%）。不包括能源板块，该指数上涨0.1%，低于上月的0.5%。按月计算，7月份工业产出在前一个月修正后下降3.7%后，下降了1.5%。

Industrial production in Portugal rose by 2.3% year-on-year in July 2025, following an upwardly revised 3% increase in the prior month. This marked the third consecutive month of modest growth in industrial activity, supported by energy (16.1% vs 20% in June); capital goods (3% vs 1.6%) and intermediate goods (2.5% vs -0.4%). However, production declined for consumer goods (-4.1% vs 0.7%). Excluding the Energy group, the index increased by 0.1%, down from 0.5% in the previous month. On a monthly basis, industrial output shrank by 1.5% in July, after a revised 3.7% decline in the preceding month.

葡萄牙经季节性调整的失业率从6月份向上修正的6.1%降至2025年7月的5.8%，为2020年4月以来的最低水平。失业人数减少15.7万人，至32.31万人，而就业人数增加17.4万人至526.0万人，为1998年2月以来的最高数字。与此同时，劳动力利用不足率（包括失业人员、劳动力边缘化人员和寻求全职工作的兼职人员）从6月份的10.3%降至7月份的10%。活动率从6月份的69.5%降至69.4%。

Portugal’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in July 2025, the lowest since April 2020, from an upwardly revised 6.1% in June. The number of unemployed declined by 15.7 thousand to 323.1 thousand, while employment increased by 17.4 thousand to 5.260 million—the highest figure since February 1998. Meanwhile, the labor underutilization rate—which includes unemployed individuals, those marginally attached to the labor force, and part-time workers seeking full-time employment—eased to 10% in July, from 10.3% in June. The activity rate edged down to 69.4% from 69.5% in June.