俄罗斯6个月期国债 (Russia6M) 加自选

由于投资者继续权衡进一步制裁的风险，MOEX俄罗斯指数在6月份一直在2800左右波动，接近4月9日达到的2650的四个月低点。美国参议院正在考虑一项法案，该法案将对俄罗斯实施额外制裁，并对与俄罗斯进行贸易的国家实施二级制裁。然而，特朗普总统对拟议立法的立场尚不清楚。与此同时，欧盟正在准备对俄罗斯实施第18轮制裁，尽管它似乎正在与美国协调下一步行动。潜在的措施可能包括收紧俄罗斯海运石油出口每桶60美元的价格上限。这些事态发展发生在乌克兰持续的敌对行动中，和平谈判没有取得重大突破。今年迄今为止，MOEX在2024年下跌近7%后下跌了3%以上。在主要成分中，俄罗斯石油公司暴跌近30%，卢克石油公司下跌近12%，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司下跌超过5.5%。

The MOEX Russia Index has been fluctuating around the 2,800 level in June, remaining close to a four-month low of 2,650 reached on April 9th, as investors continue to weigh the risk of further sanctions. The US Senate is considering a bill that would impose additional sanctions on Russia, as well as secondary sanctions on countries conducting trade with it. However, President Trump's stance on the proposed legislation remains unclear. Meanwhile, the EU is preparing its 18th sanctions package against Russia, though it appears to be coordinating its next steps with the US. Potential measures could include tightening the $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian seaborne oil exports. These developments come amid ongoing hostilities in Ukraine, with no major breakthroughs in peace negotiations. Year-to-date, the MOEX is down over 3%, following a nearly 7% decline in 2024. Among major constituents, Rosneft has plunged nearly 30%, Lukoil is down close to 12%, and Gazprom has lost more than 5.5%.

俄罗斯Nabiullina谈央行降息、通胀和卢布。俄罗斯央行行长Elvira Nabiullina和她的副手Alexei Zabotkin在周五的新闻发布会上发表讲话，此前央行将关键利率从21%降至20%。

Russia's Nabiullina on central bank rate cut, inflation and rouble.Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and her deputy Alexei Zabotkin addressed a news conference on Friday after the central bank cut its key rate to 20% from 21%.

俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率徘徊在79.4左右，接近两年高点，在资本管制、紧缩货币政策和美元普遍疲软的支持下，今年迄今已上涨约30%。一个关键的驱动因素是俄罗斯出口商，特别是石油部门的出口商，将外国收入转换为货币，政府要求他们汇回一部分外汇收入，并在国内市场上将其兑换成卢布。入侵乌克兰后出台的额外资本管制措施也提振了卢布。其中包括对外国公司的限制。与此同时，尽管没有达成任何重大协议，但围绕与乌克兰潜在和平谈判的讨论为卢布提供了一些支持。在货币政策方面，俄罗斯央行在2025年6月的会议上将基准利率下调100个基点至20%，这是近三年来的首次下调，理由是通胀缓解和经济疲软的迹象。

The Russian ruble hovered around 79.4 per USD, near two-year highs, and has gained roughly 30% so far this year, supported by capital controls, tight monetary policies, and general dollar weakness. A key driver has been the conversion of foreign earnings by Russian exporters, particularly in the oil sector, who are required by the government to repatriate a portion of their foreign currency revenues and exchange them for rubles on the domestic market. Additional capital control measures, introduced after the invasion of Ukraine, have also bolstered the ruble. These include restrictions on foreign companies. Meanwhile, discussions surrounding potential peace negotiations with Ukraine have offered some support to the ruble, despite no major agreements being reached. In monetary policy, the Central Bank of Russia cut its benchmark interest rate by 100bps to 20% during its June 2025 meeting, the first reduction in nearly three years, citing easing inflation and signs of economic weakness.

6月6日，俄罗斯央行将关键利率下调100个基点至20.00%，理由是通胀压力（包括核心通胀）持续缓解。截至6月2日，通货膨胀率同比放缓至9.8%，基本指标在5.5%至7.5%之间。消费者价格增长下降，特别是非食品类商品，反映了紧缩货币政策和卢布走强的影响。尽管如此，食品和服务业的通胀仍然居高不下，通胀预期——尤其是家庭通胀预期——仍然很高。虽然劳动力市场仍然紧张，但劳动力短缺和工资放缓的迹象正在出现。信贷活动减弱，家庭继续储蓄。该行警告称，通胀风险仍大于反通胀风险，并强调了财政变化或外部冲击的潜在影响。该行表示，将在较长一段时间内保持紧缩的货币政策，到2026年将通货膨胀率恢复到4%的目标。

The Bank of Russia cut its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 20.00% on June 6, citing continued easing in inflationary pressures, including core inflation. Inflation slowed to 9.8% year-on-year as of June 2, with underlying indicators ranging from 5.5–7.5%. A drop in consumer price growth, especially for non-food items, reflected the effect of tight monetary policy and a stronger ruble. Still, inflation for food and services remains elevated, and inflation expectations—particularly among households—stay high. While the labor market remains tight, signs of easing labor shortages and wage moderation are emerging. Credit activity is subdued, and households continue to save. The Bank warned that inflation risks still outweigh disinflationary ones and highlighted the potential impact of fiscal changes or external shocks. The Bank signaled it would maintain tight monetary conditions for an extended period to bring inflation back to the 4% target by 2026.