土耳其10年期国债 (Turkey10Y) 加自选

2025年6月，土耳其的外国游客数量同比下降1.5%，至577万人，这是连续第二个月下降。来自保加利亚（-8.6%）、英国（-6.4%）和波兰（-2.2%）的入境人数显著下降。相比之下，来自俄罗斯和德国的游客分别增长了1.8%和11.1%。安塔利亚是最受欢迎的目的地，占所有外国游客的38.6%，其次是伊斯坦布尔（28.3%）和穆格拉（9.3%）。今年上半年，外国游客总数同比下降1.1%，至2140万人。

The number of foreign visitors to Turkey fell by 1.5% year-on-year to 5.77 million in June 2025, marking a second consecutive monthly decline. Notable decreases were recorded in arrivals from Bulgaria (-8.6%), the UK (-6.4%), and Poland (-2.2%). In contrast, visitors from Russia and Germany increased by 1.8% and 11.1%, respectively. Antalya was the most popular destination, accounting for 38.6% of all foreign arrivals, followed by Istanbul (28.3%) and Mugla (9.3%). For the first half of the year, total foreign arrivals edged down 1.1% from a year earlier to 21.40 million.

伊斯坦布尔工业协会土耳其制造业采购经理人指数从6月的46.7降至2025年7月的45.9，标志着连续第16个月出现收缩，是2024年10月以来的最大跌幅。这一下降反映了国内外需求的持续疲软，新订单连续25个月下降，出口订单也疲软。反过来，制造商以10个月来最快的速度缩减了产量，并连续第八个月减少了人员配备。企业还削减了采购活动，并继续减少库存，投入库存以2024年10月以来的最大速度下降。成品库存在6月份略有上升后有所下降。疲软的投入需求帮助缩短了交货时间，这是五个月内的第四次。由于货币疲软，投入成本仍然很高，尽管通货膨胀放缓至今年以来的最低水平。由于一些公司降低费用以支持销售，产出价格小幅上涨。

The Istanbul Chamber of Industry Türkiye Manufacturing PMI fell to 45.9 in July 2025 from 46.7 in June, marking the sixteenth straight month of contraction and the sharpest decline since October 2024. The drop reflected ongoing weakness in both domestic and external demand, with new orders falling for the 25th consecutive month and export orders also softening. In turn, manufacturers scaled back output at the fastest pace in 10 months and reduced staffing levels for an eighth straight month. Firms also cut purchasing activity and continued to draw down inventories, with input stocks falling at the steepest rate since October 2024. Finished goods inventories declined after a slight rise in June. Softer input demand helped shorten delivery times for the fourth time in five months. Input costs remained high due to currency weakness, though inflation slowed to the weakest pace this year. Output prices rose modestly as some firms reduced charges to support sales.

由于进口增长超过出口，土耳其的贸易逆差从去年同月的58.9亿美元扩大到2025年6月的81.7亿美元。进口额同比增长15.2%，达到286.9亿美元，主要原因是中间产品（11.7%）、消费品（32.2%）和资本品（13.6%）的采购量增加。主要进口来源是中国（13.4%）、俄罗斯（11.6%）和德国（9.4%）。与此同时，出口增长7.9%，达到205.2亿美元，这得益于制造业（8.5%）和采矿和采石业（14%）产品销售额的增长。然而，农业、林业和渔业的出口下降了13.5%。德国仍然是最大的出口市场（8.4%），其次是英国（6.2%）和美国（5.8%）。土耳其目前受到特朗普10%的基准关税的约束，可能面临15%至20%的更高关税，这可能会对其出口产生重大影响。2025年上半年，贸易逆差从去年同期的425亿美元扩大到494.4亿美元。

Turkey's trade deficit widened to USD 8.17 billion in June 2025 from USD 5.89 billion in the same month last year, as import growth outpaced exports. Imports climbed by 15.2% year-on-year to USD 28.69 billion, driven by increased purchases of intermediate goods (11.7%), consumption goods (32.2%), and capital goods (13.6%). Key import sources were China (13.4%), Russia (11.6%), and Germany (9.4%). Meanwhile, exports grew by 7.9% to USD 20.52 billion, supported by higher sales of manufacturing (8.5%) and mining and quarrying (14%) products. However, exports of agriculture, forestry, and fishing declined (-13.5%). Germany remained the top export market (8.4%), followed by the UK (6.2%) and the US (5.8%). Turkey is currently subject to Trump’s 10% baseline tariffs and may face higher duties of 15% to 20%, which could significantly impact its exports. In the first half of 2025, the trade deficit expanded to USD 49.44 billion from USD 42.50 billion in the corresponding period a year ago.

2025年第二季度，土耳其的旅游收入同比增长8.4%，达到163亿美元。个人支出占旅游总收入的111亿美元，而包价旅游支出占50亿美元。最大的支出份额是包价旅游（31%）、食品和饮料（19.4%）以及国际运输（12.8%）。与去年同期相比，旅游服务支出增长12.5%，餐饮支出增长13.7%，交通支出增长13.8%。今年上半年，旅游收入比2024年同期增长7.6%，达到258亿美元。

Tourism revenues in Turkey increased by 8.4% year-on-year to USD 16.3 billion in the second quarter of 2025. Individual expenditures accounted for USD 11.1 billion of total tourism income, while package tour expenditures made up USD 5 billion. The largest shares of spending were on package tours (31%), food and beverages (19.4%), and international transport (12.8%). Compared to the same quarter last year, spending on tour services rose by 12.5%, food and beverage expenditures climbed by 13.7%, and transport spending increased by 13.8%. For the first half of the year, tourism revenues rose by 7.6% from the same period in 2024, reaching USD 25.8 billion.