英国1个月期国债 (UK1M) 加自选

英国GfK消费者信心指数从8月的-17降至2025年9月的-19，低于-18的预期，因为对即将到来的增税的担忧打压了市场情绪。所有五项信心指标都恶化了，而另一项储蓄意愿指标则大幅下降。经济前景情绪也保持在-32。GfK警告称，对财政部长雷切尔·里夫斯11月预算增税的担忧可能会进一步削弱信心。继去年雇主社会保障缴款增加之后，里夫斯将于11月26日提高税收，以保持预算目标的正轨。与此同时，GfK消费者洞察总监Neil Bellamy指出，英格兰银行8月份的降息未能提振消费者信心，也未能分散对持续成本压力的注意力。

The GfK Consumer Confidence Index for the UK slipped to -19 in September 2025 from -17 in August, undershooting expectations of -18 as worries over looming tax hikes weighed on sentiment. All five measures of confidence deteriorated, while a separate indicator of savings intentions posted a sharp decline. Economic outlook sentiment also stayed subdued at -32. GfK cautioned that fears of tax increases in Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ November budget could further erode confidence. Reeves is due to raise taxes on November 26 to keep budget goals on track, following last year’s rise in employer social security contributions. Meanwhile, Neil Bellamy, GfK’s consumer insights director, noted that the Bank of England’s August rate cut failed to lift consumer sentiment or distract from ongoing cost pressures.

英国消费者信心因税收担忧而下滑，前景更加黯淡。GfK警告称，对财政部长雷切尔·里夫斯11月预算增税的预期可能会进一步拖累信心。继去年雇主社会保障缴款增加后，里夫斯将于11月26日提高税收，以实现预算目标。

UK consumer confidence slips on tax fears, outlook deepens gloom.GfK warned that expectations of tax increases in Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' November budget could drag confidence down further. Reeves is set to raise taxes on November 26 to stay on track with budget targets, following last year's increase in employer social security contributions.

英格兰银行评论：短期降息仍是一种选择。正如普遍预期的那样，英格兰银行（BoE）将银行利率维持在4.00%。投票结果为7比2。

Bank of England Review – Near Term Rate Cuts Remain an Option.The Bank of England (BoE) kept the Bank rate at 4.00% as widely expected. The vote split was 7-2 in (keep vs.

随着投资者消化了央行的新信号，英镑跌至1.36美元以下。英格兰银行以7票赞成、2票反对的结果将利率维持在4%，长期持鸽派立场的Swati Dhingra和Alan Taylor支持降息。该行重申了其对宽松政策的“谨慎和渐进”立场，同时将量化紧缩从每年1000亿英镑放缓至700亿英镑，重点销售短期金边债券。通胀预测几乎没有变化，而第二季度的增长略强于预期，尽管整体经济仍然疲软。交易员适度增加了对长期宽松政策的押注，目前预计到2026年底将降息45个基点，但今年的预期保持稳定。与此同时，美联储按预期降息25个基点，并表示到年底将再降息50个基点。然而，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔强调，此举是“风险管理”的一步，而不是全面宽松周期的开始。

The British pound slipped below $1.36 as investors digested fresh central bank signals. The Bank of England held rates at 4% in a 7-2 vote, with long-standing doves Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor backing a cut. The Bank reiterated its “cautious and gradual” stance on easing, while slowing quantitative tightening from £100 billion to £70 billion annually, focusing sales on shorter-dated gilts. Inflation forecasts were little changed, while Q2 growth came in slightly stronger than expected, though the overall economy remains subdued. Traders modestly added to long-term easing bets, now pricing in 45 bps of cuts by end-2026, but expectations for this year remain steady. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve delivered a 25 bps cut as expected and signaled another 50 bps of reductions by year-end. Chair Jerome Powell, however, stressed the move was a “risk management” step rather than the start of a full easing cycle.